Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#741 Postby **Ntxw** » Thu Dec 03, 2009 12:19 am

Probably not, that was probably once in a lifetime, it should get pretty cold though.

Texas2Florida · #742 Postby **Texas2Florida** » Thu Dec 03, 2009 12:21 am

New to registering but have been lurking/reading for a long time..

Anyhoo...The "event" for next week..some of my company mets are talking almost historic event potential here as far as if all the elements come together for a southern winter storm..I'm in North Texas north of DFW area.

Whats the consensus? I see a little twitter here and there about it but mostly talking about the non-event expected for DFW on friday..

mysterymachinebl · #743 Postby **mysterymachinebl** » Thu Dec 03, 2009 12:28 am

Texas2Florida wrote:New to registering but have been lurking/reading for a long time..

Anyhoo...The "event" for next week..some of my company mets are talking almost historic event potential here as far as if all the elements come together for a southern winter storm..I'm in North Texas north of DFW area.

Whats the consensus? I see a little twitter here and there about it but mostly talking about the non-event expected for DFW on friday..

I think we'll hear a lot more after this "event" on Friday.

severe · #744 Postby **severe** » Thu Dec 03, 2009 12:55 am

mysterymachinebl wrote:
I think we'll hear a lot more after this "event" on Friday.

Ain't that the truth. I'm thinking it could be a very memorable winter for all of Texas and the southern U.S.

Texas2Florida · #745 Postby **Texas2Florida** » Thu Dec 03, 2009 2:19 am

well just watched the local weather repeats..seems no one is picking up on the cold blast for next week, forecast is lows in the 40's highs almost 60...but I've looked at the models posted here and based on comments..they could be way off?

richtrav · #746 Postby **richtrav** » Thu Dec 03, 2009 2:28 am

AggieSpirit wrote:This potential cold outbreak next week -- are we talking 1989 or 1983 again?

It's been a while since something truly remarkable like that happened....

LOL, I just KNEW this would come up :-)

I can set my watch now, winter has officially started

Short answer, no, it's too early in the season and temps up north aren't nearly cold enough. When you see temps below -40 spilling into Montana then it's time to start worrying.

Not that anyone would ever want an Arctic outbreak of that magnitude again, but I can't find a record of one occurring in TX during an El Niño winter, at least in the 20th century. Mericfully such extreme outbreaks into the southern US have waned considerably over the past two decades. Funny thing though is I have this perception, in my little foggy head at least, that these (relatively) harmless light snow and ice events have become, if anything, more common than they were back in the much colder '70s and '80s when I was growing up

zaqxsw75050 · #747 Postby **zaqxsw75050** » Thu Dec 03, 2009 3:27 am

06z NAM = no snow for Houston?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

iorange55 · #748 Postby **iorange55** » Thu Dec 03, 2009 3:32 am

zaqxsw75050 wrote:06z NAM = no snow for Houston?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Eh Yeah saw that, but it's the NAM and it hasn't been showing too much precip. Doesn't make much sense how it builds that moisture into southwest texas then it goes where? No where? Doesn't make much sense. I'll wait for the GFS 06 if it shows the same thing it's been showing then I'd trust that more than the NAM.

iorange55 · #749 Postby **iorange55** » Thu Dec 03, 2009 4:44 am

GFS 06 still looking consistent

southerngale · #750 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Dec 03, 2009 4:58 am

I just checked my 7-day forecast from NWS and a Winter Storm Watch just went up!

Friday Night: Snow likely, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. North wind between 5 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
345 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...AN UNSEASONABLE SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING...

.ANOTHER GULF COAST LOW WILL FORM JUST OFFSHORE BROWNSVILLE ON FRIDAY...
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...BEFORE ENTERING THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ROBUST FEATURE
WILL PHASE IN WITH A WESTERLY DISTURBANCE ALOFT...GENERATING
WIDESPREAD RAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY TO SNOW BY FRIDAY
EVENING...AS THE GULF COAST LOW EXITS EASTWARD.

LAZ027>033-TXZ180>182-201-031900-
/O.NEW.KLCH.WS.A.0001.091205T0000Z-091205T1200Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...WOODVILLE...
JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON
345 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON RAINS WILL GIVE WAY TO A CONTINUOUS SNOW DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NIGHT...ENDING NEAR DAWN.

ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES MAY BE IMPACTED. MOTORIZED TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
345 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...AN UNSEASONABLE SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING...

.ANOTHER GULF COAST LOW WILL FORM JUST OFFSHORE BROWNSVILLE ON FRIDAY...
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...BEFORE ENTERING THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ROBUST FEATURE
WILL PHASE IN WITH A WESTERLY DISTURBANCE ALOFT...GENERATING
WIDESPREAD RAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY TO SNOW BY FRIDAY
EVENING...AS THE GULF COAST LOW EXITS EASTWARD.

LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-031900-
/O.NEW.KLCH.WS.A.0001.091205T0000Z-091205T1200Z/
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-JEFFERSON-
ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CHARLES...JENNINGS...CROWLEY...
LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...
MORGAN CITY...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
345 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON RAINS WILL GIVE WAY TO A CONTINUOUS SNOW DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NIGHT...ENDING NEAR DAWN.

ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES MAY BE IMPACTED. MOTORIZED TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

iorange55 · #751 Postby **iorange55** » Thu Dec 03, 2009 5:03 am

Dallas NWS mentions next week

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S/40S. A
FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. IF THE CURRENT GFS
SOLUTION MATERIALIZES...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY
SNOW WILL ARRIVE TUES NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

Also says snow showers for Dallas tomorrow, and southern counties may see an inch or two at most.

The Oklahoma NWS is not trusting any models for next week.

#752 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Dec 03, 2009 6:56 am

Based on the latest GFS runs, looks like we may see up to an inch here in Austin tomorrow but areas to our east (and Aggieland) may see much more. Will be curious about the 12z runs today to see if the precipitation swath changes at all.

The 0z Euro is definitely deeper and sharper with the short-wave trough rolling through so that's a good sign as well.

Edit update: The 6z NAM and GFS remove precip chances totally in south central Texas. :cry:

iorange55 · #753 Postby **iorange55** » Thu Dec 03, 2009 7:21 am

Portastorm wrote:Based on the latest GFS runs, looks like we may see up to an inch here in Austin tomorrow but areas to our east (and Aggieland) may see much more. Will be curious about the 12z runs today to see if the precipitation swath changes at all.

The 0z Euro is definitely deeper and sharper with the short-wave trough rolling through so that's a good sign as well.

Edit update: The 6z NAM and GFS remove precip chances totally in south central Texas.

Really just the NAM removed it. But reading some of the NWS discussions they're not trusting the NAM. They seem to think with the lift it'll produce enough moisture for at least some snow down there. Austin/San Antonio said that there could be a inch or two there, and possibly even 4 in some places.

#754 Postby **Ntxw** » Thu Dec 03, 2009 7:24 am

Nonetheless it's the 6z NAM, not that trustworthy anyhow

I wouldn't worry

cperez1549 · #755 Postby **cperez1549** » Thu Dec 03, 2009 7:25 am

One Question. I live in Deep South Texas in Harlingen about 350 Miles South Of Houston. I am seeing the models of both the NAM and GFS and they are showing the freeze line coming this far south. Am I seeing this correct and do you think we have a chance for frozen stuff. I live in Harlingen and they have a 20% Chance of Rain Low of 33. What do you all think?

Corey_n_clute · #756 Postby **Corey_n_clute** » Thu Dec 03, 2009 7:48 am

welp pretty much all bets are off for the coast to get nething but a cold rain...oh well maybe next time! :wink:

iorange55 · #757 Postby **iorange55** » Thu Dec 03, 2009 8:00 am

Corey_n_clute wrote:welp pretty much all bets are off for the coast to get nething but a cold rain...oh well maybe next time!

Which Coast?

Corey_n_clute · #758 Postby **Corey_n_clute** » Thu Dec 03, 2009 8:01 am

coast being us here in brazoria county..like brazoria,angleton,lakejackson...

iorange55 · #759 Postby **iorange55** » Thu Dec 03, 2009 8:04 am

Corey_n_clute wrote:coast being us here in brazoria county..like brazoria,angleton,lakejackson...

NWS forecast for Lake Jackson

Friday: A chance of rain before 2pm, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 48. Windy, with a north wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday Night: A chance of rain and snow before midnight. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Windy, with a north wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Corey_n_clute · #760 Postby **Corey_n_clute** » Thu Dec 03, 2009 8:07 am

iorange55 wrote:
Corey_n_clute wrote:coast being us here in brazoria county..like brazoria,angleton,lakejackson...

NWS forecast for Lake Jackson

Friday: A chance of rain before 2pm, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 48. Windy, with a north wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday Night: A chance of rain and snow before midnight. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Windy, with a north wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

yeah..but i have a hard time believen that lol..i know that our area will be the last to see it chage over to snow but i doubt there willl be any most.left

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