Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

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Snowman67
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3381 Postby Snowman67 » Tue Jan 05, 2010 10:09 am

Portastorm wrote:No hope shown by the 12z NAM for wintry precip fun later this week. :(

That's it ... I'm calling it for winter in Austin. Winter = Cancel. :lol:



I have a feeling you will have other chances at frozen precip. in the Austin area before Winter is over :-)
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3382 Postby Portastorm » Tue Jan 05, 2010 10:11 am

Snowman67 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:No hope shown by the 12z NAM for wintry precip fun later this week. :(

That's it ... I'm calling it for winter in Austin. Winter = Cancel. :lol:



I have a feeling you will have other chances at frozen precip. in the Austin area before Winter is over :-)


Snowman ... shhhh! ... I'm tying the ol' reverse psychology trick. :wink:
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3383 Postby Snowman67 » Tue Jan 05, 2010 10:26 am

Portastorm wrote:
Snowman67 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:No hope shown by the 12z NAM for wintry precip fun later this week. :(

That's it ... I'm calling it for winter in Austin. Winter = Cancel. :lol:



I have a feeling you will have other chances at frozen precip. in the Austin area before Winter is over :-)


Snowman ... shhhh! ... I'm tying the ol' reverse psychology trick. :wink:



Ahhh! Of course, of course. What was I thinking.............
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3384 Postby richtrav » Tue Jan 05, 2010 10:53 am

Roxy wrote:my poor, poor plumeria and orange tree. :(


It may be too late, but your plumeria can easily be dug out of the ground and thrown in the garage. I've even heard of people just cutting them off at the ground and replanting in spring. They root very easily. As for the orange, most types can make it through the low 20s if they're hardened off by prior cold, so it may not suffer too much (depending on where you're at in the Houston area)

On an encouraging note, I see where forecasts are slightly warmer today, probably due to the modest eastward and milder shifts in the models. This would be great news if true but for now I'm still operating under the assumption that it'll be similar to 1996, potentially a tad harder on vegetation due to the predicted high winds and low dewpoints
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3385 Postby iorange55 » Tue Jan 05, 2010 10:57 am

GFS 12z tries to show a little hope it's bruised, and broken, but not down yet.
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#3386 Postby drred4 » Tue Jan 05, 2010 10:57 am

I do not post much, but some observations of my own here in B/CS. During the Dec 4-5 2009 we dropped to 18 just north east of Bryan. Plenty of vegetation was damaged, palms, bottle brush, lemon trees, pomegranate, and so forth. This morning it was 21.9 with plenty of frost. I am sure more things were hurt.

I bought a heat lamp last week for my lemon tree, hope it survives.

Anyways,thanks everyone for all your insite here and helpful info as it helps a lot for preparing for events like in the coming days. You Can beat the rush for wrapping material or make a run for extra wood.

Thanks again
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3387 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:20 am

I'm becoming very concerned for the RGV. WOW! This is not good folks.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3388 Postby Big O » Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:22 am

srainhoutx wrote:I'm becoming very concerned for the RGV. WOW! This is not good folks.


You mean in terms of temperature, correct, not frozen precipitation?
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#3389 Postby southerngale » Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:24 am

iorange55 and srain... please elaborate
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3390 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:27 am

srainhoutx wrote:I'm becoming very concerned for the RGV. WOW! This is not good folks.


Concerned about what? What is RGV?
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3391 Postby cperez1594 » Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:27 am

I am from the RGV what is that we need to concern about? Lets us in on your info
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Re:

#3392 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:28 am

southerngale wrote:iorange55 and srain... please elaborate


Temps. Looks like a hard freeze down there. RGV= Rio Grande Valley
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3393 Postby iorange55 » Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:29 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:I'm becoming very concerned for the RGV. WOW! This is not good folks.


Concerned about what? What is RGV?



Rio Grande Valley, and I'm assuming he was indeed talking about freezing temps. I was talking about the little piece of energy that keeps showing up in West Texas later this week after the cold air arrives. It looks to wash out I guess cause it's so dry, but it's just the thing that could change just like that, whether it will or not, i don't know. Probably not, but least the opportunity is there in a way.
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Re: Re:

#3394 Postby southerngale » Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:30 am

srainhoutx wrote:
southerngale wrote:iorange55 and srain... please elaborate


Temps. Looks like a hard freeze down there. RGV= Rio Grande Valley


Ahh, ok. Just curious... was there already supposed to be a hard freeze down there or is the 12z coming in colder?
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3395 Postby Portastorm » Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:35 am

Not sure what you're seeing srainhoutx. The 12z GFS run looks very similar to the 0z run. The RGV is currently forecasted to bottom out in the mid to upper 20s. Do you see worse?
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Re: Re:

#3396 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:35 am

southerngale wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
southerngale wrote:iorange55 and srain... please elaborate


Temps. Looks like a hard freeze down there. RGV= Rio Grande Valley


Ahh, ok. Just curious... was there already supposed to be a hard freeze down there or is the 12z coming in colder?

Looks a tad colder and perhaps a bit more hours below freezing. Ag interests will likely have issues. Also seeing some -6 to -8 850mb temps aross SE TX as well for Saturday/early Sunday morning on the 12Z GFS. SW LA about the same, maybe a touch colder. ~sigh~
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3397 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:39 am

Portastorm wrote:Not sure what you're seeing srainhoutx. The 12z GFS run looks very similar to the 0z run. The RGV is currently forecasted to bottom out in the mid to upper 20s. Do you see worse?


You know the trend so far with temps Portastorm. The guidance is under estimating the cold IMHO. Been that way all season.

Hour 96

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif

102

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102l.gif

108

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_108l.gif
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#3398 Postby richtrav » Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:42 am

I'm watching the RGV forecast like a hawk and we ARE very nervous down here, but it does look slightly better today than yesterday. If we could stay under cloud cover on the coldest nights it would help out a great deal. Today's NWS forecast is a couple of degrees warmer for lows than yesterday's but things can change on a dime
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3399 Postby orangeblood » Tue Jan 05, 2010 12:09 pm

I know most people are focused on the short term right now. But I'm noticing a potential big ticket item for early next week. The models are finally picking up on the short wave but don't know what to do with it quite yet. The S/W in question is the one that will be coming through the Pacific Northwest around Sunday and then diving into the central rockies region. This S/W has the potential to cut off from the polar jet and form a potent cut-off low in the southern plains. One analog that has popped up is January 15-16 1964, where DFW saw one of its biggest snowfalls ever (10-12 inches). Just something to keep an eye on!!!
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3400 Postby iorange55 » Tue Jan 05, 2010 12:11 pm

orangeblood wrote:I know most people are focused on the short term right now. But I'm noticing a potential big ticket item for early next week. The models are finally picking up on the short wave but don't know what to do with it quite yet. The S/W in question is the one that will be coming through the Pacific Northwest around Sunday and then diving into the central rockies region. This S/W has the potential to cut off from the polar jet and form a potent cut-off low in the southern plains. One analog that has popped up is January 15-16 1964, where DFW saw one of its biggest snowfalls ever (10-12 inches). Just something to keep an eye on!!!




I'm going to pretend I didn't read that.
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