Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Snowman67]

No hope shown by the 12z NAM for wintry precip fun later this week.

That's it ... I'm calling it for winter in Austin. Winter = Cancel.

I have a feeling you will have other chances at frozen precip. in the Austin area before Winter is over

[Portastorm]

No hope shown by the 12z NAM for wintry precip fun later this week.

That's it ... I'm calling it for winter in Austin. Winter = Cancel.

I have a feeling you will have other chances at frozen precip. in the Austin area before Winter is over

Snowman ... shhhh! ... I'm tying the ol' reverse psychology trick.

[Snowman67]

No hope shown by the 12z NAM for wintry precip fun later this week.

That's it ... I'm calling it for winter in Austin. Winter = Cancel.

I have a feeling you will have other chances at frozen precip. in the Austin area before Winter is over

Snowman ... shhhh! ... I'm tying the ol' reverse psychology trick.

Ahhh! Of course, of course. What was I thinking.............

[richtrav]

my poor, poor plumeria and orange tree.

It may be too late, but your plumeria can easily be dug out of the ground and thrown in the garage. I've even heard of people just cutting them off at the ground and replanting in spring. They root very easily. As for the orange, most types can make it through the low 20s if they're hardened off by prior cold, so it may not suffer too much (depending on where you're at in the Houston area)

On an encouraging note, I see where forecasts are slightly warmer today, probably due to the modest eastward and milder shifts in the models. This would be great news if true but for now I'm still operating under the assumption that it'll be similar to 1996, potentially a tad harder on vegetation due to the predicted high winds and low dewpoints

[iorange55]

GFS 12z tries to show a little hope it's bruised, and broken, but not down yet.

[drred4]

I do not post much, but some observations of my own here in B/CS. During the Dec 4-5 2009 we dropped to 18 just north east of Bryan. Plenty of vegetation was damaged, palms, bottle brush, lemon trees, pomegranate, and so forth. This morning it was 21.9 with plenty of frost. I am sure more things were hurt.

I bought a heat lamp last week for my lemon tree, hope it survives.

Anyways,thanks everyone for all your insite here and helpful info as it helps a lot for preparing for events like in the coming days. You Can beat the rush for wrapping material or make a run for extra wood.

Thanks again

[srainhoutx]

I'm becoming very concerned for the RGV. WOW! This is not good folks.

[Big O]

I'm becoming very concerned for the RGV. WOW! This is not good folks.

You mean in terms of temperature, correct, not frozen precipitation?

[southerngale]

iorange55 and srain... please elaborate

[HockeyTx82]

I'm becoming very concerned for the RGV. WOW! This is not good folks.

Concerned about what? What is RGV?

[cperez1594]

I am from the RGV what is that we need to concern about? Lets us in on your info

[srainhoutx]

iorange55 and srain... please elaborate

Temps. Looks like a hard freeze down there. RGV= Rio Grande Valley

[iorange55]

I'm becoming very concerned for the RGV. WOW! This is not good folks.

Concerned about what? What is RGV?

Rio Grande Valley, and I'm assuming he was indeed talking about freezing temps. I was talking about the little piece of energy that keeps showing up in West Texas later this week after the cold air arrives. It looks to wash out I guess cause it's so dry, but it's just the thing that could change just like that, whether it will or not, i don't know. Probably not, but least the opportunity is there in a way.

[southerngale]

iorange55 and srain... please elaborate

Temps. Looks like a hard freeze down there. RGV= Rio Grande Valley

Ahh, ok. Just curious... was there already supposed to be a hard freeze down there or is the 12z coming in colder?

[Portastorm]

Not sure what you're seeing srainhoutx. The 12z GFS run looks very similar to the 0z run. The RGV is currently forecasted to bottom out in the mid to upper 20s. Do you see worse?

[srainhoutx]

iorange55 and srain... please elaborate

Temps. Looks like a hard freeze down there. RGV= Rio Grande Valley

Ahh, ok. Just curious... was there already supposed to be a hard freeze down there or is the 12z coming in colder?

Looks a tad colder and perhaps a bit more hours below freezing. Ag interests will likely have issues. Also seeing some -6 to -8 850mb temps aross SE TX as well for Saturday/early Sunday morning on the 12Z GFS. SW LA about the same, maybe a touch colder. ~sigh~

[srainhoutx]

Not sure what you're seeing srainhoutx. The 12z GFS run looks very similar to the 0z run. The RGV is currently forecasted to bottom out in the mid to upper 20s. Do you see worse?

You know the trend so far with temps Portastorm. The guidance is under estimating the cold IMHO. Been that way all season.

Hour 96

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif

102

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102l.gif

108

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_108l.gif

[richtrav]

I'm watching the RGV forecast like a hawk and we ARE very nervous down here, but it does look slightly better today than yesterday. If we could stay under cloud cover on the coldest nights it would help out a great deal. Today's NWS forecast is a couple of degrees warmer for lows than yesterday's but things can change on a dime

[orangeblood]

I know most people are focused on the short term right now. But I'm noticing a potential big ticket item for early next week. The models are finally picking up on the short wave but don't know what to do with it quite yet. The S/W in question is the one that will be coming through the Pacific Northwest around Sunday and then diving into the central rockies region. This S/W has the potential to cut off from the polar jet and form a potent cut-off low in the southern plains. One analog that has popped up is January 15-16 1964, where DFW saw one of its biggest snowfalls ever (10-12 inches). Just something to keep an eye on!!!

[iorange55]

I know most people are focused on the short term right now. But I'm noticing a potential big ticket item for early next week. The models are finally picking up on the short wave but don't know what to do with it quite yet. The S/W in question is the one that will be coming through the Pacific Northwest around Sunday and then diving into the central rockies region. This S/W has the potential to cut off from the polar jet and form a potent cut-off low in the southern plains. One analog that has popped up is January 15-16 1964, where DFW saw one of its biggest snowfalls ever (10-12 inches). Just something to keep an eye on!!!

I'm going to pretend I didn't read that.