Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Weatherdude20]

http://www.wfaa.com/weather

If yall could follow this link and watch the video, Steve McCauley, with wfaa Dallas Fort Worth, says hes gonna be conservative at this point and call for a 50% chance of all snow.
I always liked the conservatives...

[wxman57]

Model agreement continues to improve, though I'm still skeptical of the amount of moisture indicated across central and NE TX according to the latest GFS runs. However, what I'm seeing indicates a good chance of some sleet and a bit of snow as far south as Austin Thursday evening, with soundings indicating snow in the Dallas area. First let's look at Houston.

Everything points to an all-rain event in the greater Houston area, an all VERY COLD rain event. The "problem", as can be seen on the Skew-T vertical profile for Thursday evening is that there is forecast to be a warm layer from the surface to 10,000 ft, with temps up into the mid 40s aloft. Any snow falling from above that would melt and not re-freeze before reaching the ground, making snow/sleet unlikely in Houston. Even looking at soundings as the precip ends, temps aloft aren't cold enough except for maybe a couple of minutes Thursday night. But then, moisture is fading fast as temps aloft drop.

That said, there may be a chance of frozen precip in Houston, but not as the precip ends (typical). As the precip starts on Wednesday morning, vertical profiles indicate that moisture falling from above 6000 ft may fall as sleet or even snow. But temps aloft warm during the day Wednesday, assuring that cold rain will be the general rule.

Houston 06Z GFS Meteogram:


Houston Skew-T Valid 6pm Thursday:


Houston Skew-T Valid 9PM Wednesday:


Austin is more of a challenge. Their meteogram puts surface temps very close to freezing. But vertical profiles also indicate temps very close to freezing below 10,000ft. No big warm layer aloft. You could see a change over to snow Thursday night as the precip comes to an end, but I don't think you'll see significant accumulations.

Austin 06Z GFS Meteogram:


As for the Dallas-Ft. Worth area, forecast soundings and meteograms indicate mostly snow for over 24 hours beginning Wednesday afternoon. I do agree that snow looks likely there now. HOWEVER, I'm still skeptical of the amounts projected by the GFS. It does tend to over-forecast moisture amounts well inland with West Gulf Low developments. So hope for a big snow event in Dallas, but be a little skeptical for now about the amounts.

Dallas (DFW) 06Z GFS Meteogram:


Dallas-Ft. Worth Skew-T Valid 6pm Thursday:


Finally, Wichita Falls. That's really getting too far north for significant accumulations with a West Gulf Low, and even the latest GFS agrees. It still may be overdoing the available moisture at forecasting a few inches into SPS:

[cycloneye]

Off-Topic=This post is only to let know the members who always are interested to know how El Nino is doing,you can see the latest CPC update on the ENSO thread at Talking Tropics forum. viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&hilit=&p=1963546#p1963546

[BrokenGlass]

[CaptinCrunch]

Morning AFD NWS FTW

RAPID DRYING IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLDER AIR TONIGHT...AND WE HAVE
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF WINTER PRECIP OVERNIGHT. I CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO PUT IN THE
FORECAST AND WOULD LEAVE NO IMPACTS. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS GUSTING INTO
THE LOW 30S AT TIMES.

AS FOR THE THURSDAY SYSTEM...NAM/ECMWF ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH
QPF BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE A WINTER MIX. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS...SO
EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE ALMOST A HALF INCH OF SNOW FALL POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHEAST...IT WILL MELT RATHER THAN ACCUMULATE. ISOLATED
TRAVEL PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING WHEN FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO
CANTON...AND AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
FRIDAY.

[WacoWx]

they raised the pop here in Waco to 60% for Thurs as oppoesed to the previous 40%, and from 20% to 50% Thurs night. I REALLY like it when posters here start mentioning B/CS as being cold enough for frozen precip.. That pretty much guarantees temps to be cold enough here in Waco to support winter weather as we're typically 2-4 degrees colder here.

I'm still having my doubts about the temps being cold enough, but at least the pop is going up (crossing fingers, knocking on wood...)!

[BrokenGlass]

Curious also about today's event. Here in Richardson, temp is down to 38.3, and rain is steady.

[wxman57]

Curious also about today's event. Here in Richardson, temp is down to 38.3, and rain is steady.

With all the rain around today, your temps will have a hard time rising at all during the day. The 06Z GFS meteogram is probably too warm.

[Portastorm]

Oh my goodness, Wxman57 doesn't completely rule out at least *some* wintry precip in the Austin area. (Portastorm pinching himself!)

All kidding aside, I know we're going to probably end up in a borderline area and it'll be the classic touch-and-go up until the event. Wxman57, thanks as always for your analysis and please keep 'em coming!

[wxman57]

Oh my goodness, Wxman57 doesn't completely rule out at least *some* wintry precip in the Austin area. (Portastorm pinching himself!)

All kidding aside, I know we're going to probably end up in a borderline area and it'll be the classic touch-and-go up until the event. Wxman57, thanks as always for your analysis and please keep 'em coming!

I'm in a good mood after the Saints' win last night. So, go ahead, have a little frozen precip.

[rhoby13]

Is anyone concerned that the 12Z NAM has the 0 celsius line farther north this morning?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 84_m.shtml

[iorange55]

Looks the same at 84hrs

[Portastorm]

That's what I thought as well. Comparing the 0z and 12z NAM valid for 12z Thurs (6 am Thurs morning) ... they look almost the same.

[srainhoutx]

Is anyone concerned that the 12Z NAM has the 0 celsius line farther north this morning?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 84_m.shtml

Typical NAM in the longer range of that model. Look for trends in the Upper Air pattern beyond 36-48 hours IMHO.

[gboudx]

Oh my goodness, Wxman57 doesn't completely rule out at least *some* wintry precip in the Austin area. (Portastorm pinching himself!)

All kidding aside, I know we're going to probably end up in a borderline area and it'll be the classic touch-and-go up until the event. Wxman57, thanks as always for your analysis and please keep 'em coming!

I'm in a good mood after the Saints' win last night. So, go ahead, have a little frozen precip.

57, after not going to sleep until about 3am listening to all the post-game on 870AM, and after watching our Saints win the SB; and now reading you talk about sneaux in DFW, I think I'm dreaming.

[wxman57]

57, after not going to sleep until about 3am listening to all the post-game on 870AM, and after watching our Saints win the SB; and now reading you talk about sneaux in DFW, I think I'm dreaming.

Let's see how the 12Z models handle the moisture up there. Like I said, I'm still skeptical of the 0.7" liquid precip forecast by the GFS in your area, but it may well be a prolonged period of light precip, probably sneaux.

As for the Saints, coming from Lafayette, I've been a fan since day-1 back in the late 1960s. It's been a long time coming.

[msstateguy83]

i hate to be the one of bad news but and i could be wrong still half awake here but just brushing over the 12z nam it looks warmer.....

[iorange55]

i hate to be the one of bad news but and i could be wrong still half awake here but just brushing over the 12z nam it looks warmer.....

Not enough to even matter

[BrokenGlass]

Curious also about today's event. Here in Richardson, temp is down to 38.3, and rain is steady.

With all the rain around today, your temps will have a hard time rising at all during the day. The 06Z GFS meteogram is probably too warm.

I guess, though, if they are estimating too warm today, and DFW might hit freezing sooner than expected. I'm holding at 37.2 at my house now.

[srainhoutx]

For what it is worth the 12Z GFS is a tad colder with the 850's and further S as the precip starts.