txagwxman wrote:Yea that 53F DFW from the NWS yesterday for today is going to bust badly.
Unless things change significantly here in Houston, I think our progged 58F is going down the tubes also.
Moderator: S2k Moderators
txagwxman wrote:Yea that 53F DFW from the NWS yesterday for today is going to bust badly.
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
744 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2010
VALID 12Z WED FEB 17 2010 - 12Z SAT FEB 20 2010
INTENSE POSITIVE HT ANOMALIES CONT THRU THIS PERIOD NEAR CAPE
FAREWELL AND OVER THE SERN AK PANHANDLE KEEPING UP THE STRONG
PERSISTENT NEG AO/NAO PATTERN. REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
CONTINUES THRU DAY 5 THURSDAY OF A NEAR NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY
POSITVE PNA PATTERN BY GFS AND GFS ENS GUIDANCE. DIFFERENCES SHOW
UP BY DAY 6 FRIDAY ONWARD AS GFS AND ITS ENS MEAN TO SOME EXTENT
UNDER CUT THE WRN CONUS COASTAL RIDGING RESULTING IN A NERN
PACIFIC REX BLOCK WITH CONSIDERABLE SRN STREAM FLOW COMING ACROSS
THE SRN TIER OF CONUS. IN THIS STRONG EL NINO YEAR THIS REMAINS
POSSIBLE. CURRENT MJO PHASE 8 AND ENTERING PHASE 1 WHILE WEAKENING
INTO INDETERMINATE STATUS LEAVES A RELATIVELY POOR MATCH TO D+8
GUIDANCE OF GFS OR ECMWF. THESE DIFFER LATE PERIOD AND INTO THE
DAY 8 AND BEYOND BY GFS KEEPING UP A STRONGER SRN STREAM AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WHILE BOTH MODELS AND CMC KEEP UP THE STRONG
POSITIVE HT ANOMALIES NEAR LOWER DAVIS STRAIT AND THE SRN AK
PENINSULA. ECMWF KEEPS UP MUCH MORE OF A STRONGER DOMINANT
AMPLIFIED PNA PATTERN. D+8 ANALOGS OF GFS/ECMWF/CMC LIKE FEB 63
AND 68 BOTH OF WHICH HAD A VERY AMPLIFIED PNA PATTERN AND A SRN
STREAM CONNECTION AT THE ANALOG TIME FRAME..A HYBRID OF THE TWO
MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE PERIOD. HOWEVER THESE WERE BOTH NON EL NINO
YEARS. GOING A BIT FARTHER TO THE D+11 TIME FRAME GFS/CMC SERIES
TARGET AND HAVE BEEN TARGETING FOR QUITE A WHILE FEB 1978 AND
ESPECIALLY FEB 1958 WHICH WERE INFAMOUS ERN CONUS WINTERS AND WERE
WARM ENSO EL NINO YEARS LIKE TEH CURRENT ONE. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STRONG NEG A0/NAO AND ITS CORRESPONDING PARTNER THE POSITIVE PNA
HAS BEEN THE LEADING INFLUENCE OVER NOAM THIS WINTER WITH A VERY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FEED FROM THE SRN STREAM. PREFER THE
AMPLIFIED ECMWF ENS MEAN WITH SOME ADDITION OF THE GFS ENS MEAN
WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN ITS OP RUN FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 FRI/SAT
WITH THIS BEING THE PREVAILING PATTERN.
HPC PRELIMS 50/50 OP ECMWF/GFS DAYS 3 AND 4 TUES/WED WITH
INCREASING INCORPORATION OF ENS MEANS DOMINATED BY ECMWF ENS MEAN
DAYS 5-7 THURS-SAT.
MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND SFC REFLECTION SWINGS OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST DAY 3 TUES ROTATING UP TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WHERE
IT BECOMES A LOCKED IN FEATURE. THIS SPREADS A MODERATE SNOW INTO
NEW ENG WITH CONTINUOUS COLD ADVECTION FLOW AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS OVER THE ERN THIRD OF CONUS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND UP
SLOPE SNOWS INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL APPLCHNS INTO DAY 5 THURSDAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN PLAINS FRI
AND SAT WITH A ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN PREFERENCE BREAKS OUT TX TO TN
VALLEY PCPN THE NRN PORTION OF WHICH WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
WATCHED FOR WINTER TYPE PCPN. THIS WILL SPREAD EWD INTO MUCH OF
ERN CONUS DAY 8 SUNDAY.
WESTWARD WET CONDS WELL AGREED UPON NRN CA AND PAC NORTHWEST INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES DAY 3 TUES WITH ROCKIES SNOWS WED AND THURS.
PREFER THE DRIER PATTERN OF ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN OVER THE WEST
COAST LATE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS
WED TO SAT REINFORCING SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER.
ROSENSTEIN
iorange55 wrote:I just realized that you know before winter we're all like "I hope this winter is like this winter, or that winter" and we dream about having winters like that, but they never happen. But this time it kind of did, and I have a feeling 20 years from now people are going to be saying "Why can't we have a winter like 2010 again"
Really cool to be apart of it.
iorange55 wrote:I just realized that you know before winter we're all like "I hope this winter is like this winter, or that winter" and we dream about having winters like that, but they never happen. But this time it kind of did, and I have a feeling 20 years from now people are going to be saying "Why can't we have a winter like 2010 again"
Really cool to be apart of it.
txagwxman wrote:I am hoping clouds finally clear out by 2PM today in Houston, should break that inversion by then...
srainhoutx wrote:12Z GFS looks to bring the PV S into Canada with a cross Polar Flow beginning around hour 162. The 'finer details' will be worked out, but it does appear that some mighty chilly air is poised to dump into N America and the CONUS for the mid to late February time frame.
srainhoutx wrote:12Z GFS looks to bring the PV S into Canada with a cross Polar Flow beginning around hour 162. The 'finer details' will be worked out, but it does appear that some mighty chilly air is poised to dump into N America and the CONUS for the mid to late February time frame.
iorange55 wrote:I just realized that you know before winter we're all like "I hope this winter is like this winter, or that winter" and we dream about having winters like that, but they never happen. But this time it kind of did, and I have a feeling 20 years from now people are going to be saying "Why can't we have a winter like 2010 again"
Really cool to be apart of it.
txagwxman wrote:srainhoutx wrote:12Z GFS looks to bring the PV S into Canada with a cross Polar Flow beginning around hour 162. The 'finer details' will be worked out, but it does appear that some mighty chilly air is poised to dump into N America and the CONUS for the mid to late February time frame.
Yes...curious what the ECMWF is going to do. GFS ensembles maintain the pattern will be under cut by Pacific flow by day 10...thus not as cold.
iorange55 wrote:I just realized that you know before winter we're all like "I hope this winter is like this winter, or that winter" and we dream about having winters like that, but they never happen. But this time it kind of did, and I have a feeling 20 years from now people are going to be saying "Why can't we have a winter like 2010 again"
Really cool to be apart of it.
serenata09 wrote:Heading back to Dallas today. Any snow still on the ground?
msstateguy83 wrote:I have posted a graphic i made just my thoughts on overall how this winter is
going to pan out for the tx/ok region, let me know if you agree or disagree. its likely
far from perfect but its best what i can picture at this time.
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