Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

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vbhoutex
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Re:

#7181 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Feb 13, 2010 9:54 am

txagwxman wrote:Yea that 53F DFW from the NWS yesterday for today is going to bust badly.

Unless things change significantly here in Houston, I think our progged 58F is going down the tubes also.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7182 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Feb 13, 2010 9:58 am

Very interesting HPC Prelim Disco pointing out the Upper Air Patter we are seeing and have even been discussing...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
744 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2010

VALID 12Z WED FEB 17 2010 - 12Z SAT FEB 20 2010

INTENSE POSITIVE HT ANOMALIES CONT THRU THIS PERIOD NEAR CAPE
FAREWELL AND OVER THE SERN AK PANHANDLE KEEPING UP THE STRONG
PERSISTENT NEG AO/NAO PATTERN. REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
CONTINUES THRU DAY 5 THURSDAY OF A NEAR NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY
POSITVE PNA PATTERN BY GFS AND GFS ENS GUIDANCE. DIFFERENCES SHOW
UP BY DAY 6 FRIDAY ONWARD AS GFS AND ITS ENS MEAN TO SOME EXTENT
UNDER CUT THE WRN CONUS COASTAL RIDGING RESULTING IN A NERN
PACIFIC REX BLOCK WITH CONSIDERABLE SRN STREAM FLOW COMING ACROSS
THE SRN TIER OF CONUS. IN THIS STRONG EL NINO YEAR THIS REMAINS
POSSIBLE. CURRENT MJO PHASE 8 AND ENTERING PHASE 1 WHILE WEAKENING
INTO INDETERMINATE STATUS LEAVES A RELATIVELY POOR MATCH TO D+8
GUIDANCE OF GFS OR ECMWF. THESE DIFFER LATE PERIOD AND INTO THE
DAY 8 AND BEYOND BY GFS KEEPING UP A STRONGER SRN STREAM AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WHILE BOTH MODELS AND CMC KEEP UP THE STRONG
POSITIVE HT ANOMALIES NEAR LOWER DAVIS STRAIT AND THE SRN AK
PENINSULA. ECMWF KEEPS UP MUCH MORE OF A STRONGER DOMINANT
AMPLIFIED PNA PATTERN. D+8 ANALOGS OF GFS/ECMWF/CMC LIKE FEB 63
AND 68 BOTH OF WHICH HAD A VERY AMPLIFIED PNA PATTERN AND A SRN
STREAM CONNECTION AT THE ANALOG TIME FRAME..A HYBRID OF THE TWO
MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE PERIOD. HOWEVER THESE WERE BOTH NON EL NINO
YEARS. GOING A BIT FARTHER TO THE D+11 TIME FRAME GFS/CMC SERIES
TARGET AND HAVE BEEN TARGETING FOR QUITE A WHILE FEB 1978 AND
ESPECIALLY FEB 1958 WHICH WERE INFAMOUS ERN CONUS WINTERS AND WERE
WARM ENSO EL NINO YEARS LIKE TEH CURRENT ONE. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STRONG NEG A0/NAO AND ITS CORRESPONDING PARTNER THE POSITIVE PNA
HAS BEEN THE LEADING INFLUENCE OVER NOAM THIS WINTER WITH A VERY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FEED FROM THE SRN STREAM. PREFER THE
AMPLIFIED ECMWF ENS MEAN WITH SOME ADDITION OF THE GFS ENS MEAN
WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN ITS OP RUN FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 FRI/SAT
WITH THIS BEING THE PREVAILING PATTERN.

HPC PRELIMS 50/50 OP ECMWF/GFS DAYS 3 AND 4 TUES/WED WITH
INCREASING INCORPORATION OF ENS MEANS DOMINATED BY ECMWF ENS MEAN
DAYS 5-7 THURS-SAT.

MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND SFC REFLECTION SWINGS OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST DAY 3 TUES ROTATING UP TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WHERE
IT BECOMES A LOCKED IN FEATURE. THIS SPREADS A MODERATE SNOW INTO
NEW ENG WITH CONTINUOUS COLD ADVECTION FLOW AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS OVER THE ERN THIRD OF CONUS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND UP
SLOPE SNOWS INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL APPLCHNS INTO DAY 5 THURSDAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN PLAINS FRI
AND SAT WITH A ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN PREFERENCE BREAKS OUT TX TO TN
VALLEY PCPN THE NRN PORTION OF WHICH WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
WATCHED FOR WINTER TYPE PCPN. THIS WILL SPREAD EWD INTO MUCH OF
ERN CONUS DAY 8 SUNDAY.

WESTWARD WET CONDS WELL AGREED UPON NRN CA AND PAC NORTHWEST INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES DAY 3 TUES WITH ROCKIES SNOWS WED AND THURS.
PREFER THE DRIER PATTERN OF ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN OVER THE WEST
COAST LATE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS
WED TO SAT REINFORCING SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER.
ROSENSTEIN
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7183 Postby Portastorm » Sat Feb 13, 2010 9:59 am

:uarrow:

Same here. We're sittin' at 36 in AUS with a progged high of 59. I could believe that in a dry, sun-filled atmosphere but right now it's moist with low-level clouds hanging thick.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7184 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Feb 13, 2010 10:02 am

Remember last weekend we also were stuck under an inversion with cold snow covered ground to the N. :wink:
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7185 Postby iorange55 » Sat Feb 13, 2010 10:42 am

I just realized that you know before winter we're all like "I hope this winter is like this winter, or that winter" and we dream about having winters like that, but they never happen. But this time it kind of did, and I have a feeling 20 years from now people are going to be saying "Why can't we have a winter like 2010 again"


Really cool to be apart of it.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7186 Postby Portastorm » Sat Feb 13, 2010 10:47 am

iorange55 wrote:I just realized that you know before winter we're all like "I hope this winter is like this winter, or that winter" and we dream about having winters like that, but they never happen. But this time it kind of did, and I have a feeling 20 years from now people are going to be saying "Why can't we have a winter like 2010 again"


Really cool to be apart of it.


Ahem (Portastorm clears his throat), this may be true for "people" in North Texas. So far this winter has been a colossal disappointment for me and my buddy in Tomball, txagwxman.

Oh wait ... I promised y'all and my counselor that I wouldn't go down my spiral of darkness and bitterness. :lol: Sorry.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7187 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Feb 13, 2010 10:53 am

iorange55 wrote:I just realized that you know before winter we're all like "I hope this winter is like this winter, or that winter" and we dream about having winters like that, but they never happen. But this time it kind of did, and I have a feeling 20 years from now people are going to be saying "Why can't we have a winter like 2010 again"


Really cool to be apart of it.


That it has. For those that follow long range patterns, we saw the signals and wondered "will the pattern produce"? In my book it has and will continue to and certainly will likely be a winter that we will not soon forget IMHO. With that said, here hoping Portastorm, txagwxman and even srainhoutx (other than a dusting of snow I had on Dec 4th) see something memorable before the pattern changes. :wink:
Last edited by srainhoutx on Sat Feb 13, 2010 11:00 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#7188 Postby txagwxman » Sat Feb 13, 2010 10:58 am

I am hoping clouds finally clear out by 2PM today in Houston, should break that inversion by then...
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7189 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Feb 13, 2010 11:39 am

12Z GFS looks to bring the PV S into Canada with a cross Polar Flow beginning around hour 162. The 'finer details' will be worked out, but it does appear that some mighty chilly air is poised to dump into N America and the CONUS for the mid to late February time frame.
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Re:

#7190 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Feb 13, 2010 12:06 pm

txagwxman wrote:I am hoping clouds finally clear out by 2PM today in Houston, should break that inversion by then...

I hope so!! My granddaughter's 1st birthday party starts a 3pm. It would be nice if it was at lest sunny. So far this morning has been foggy and low to mid 30's. :roll: I certainly don't see us attaining our progged high of 58F.
Steve you are so right about this winter and everything still says there is more to come! :eek: :eek: :cold: :cold: :froze: :froze:
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7191 Postby txagwxman » Sat Feb 13, 2010 12:06 pm

srainhoutx wrote:12Z GFS looks to bring the PV S into Canada with a cross Polar Flow beginning around hour 162. The 'finer details' will be worked out, but it does appear that some mighty chilly air is poised to dump into N America and the CONUS for the mid to late February time frame.

Yes...curious what the ECMWF is going to do. GFS ensembles maintain the pattern will be under cut by Pacific flow by day 10...thus not as cold.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7192 Postby bktkck » Sat Feb 13, 2010 12:07 pm

srainhoutx wrote:12Z GFS looks to bring the PV S into Canada with a cross Polar Flow beginning around hour 162. The 'finer details' will be worked out, but it does appear that some mighty chilly air is poised to dump into N America and the CONUS for the mid to late February time frame.


How chilly?
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7193 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 13, 2010 12:07 pm

iorange55 wrote:I just realized that you know before winter we're all like "I hope this winter is like this winter, or that winter" and we dream about having winters like that, but they never happen. But this time it kind of did, and I have a feeling 20 years from now people are going to be saying "Why can't we have a winter like 2010 again"


Really cool to be apart of it.


With that said, I don't think this winter is the last of it. Something else I've noticed is that winters like this come in droves. When there's one, there's almost always another right next to it. The same goes for warm winters. There has been signals that the earth overall is going into a colder regime, it has been the last few years or so. The 50s, 70s, and 80s are prime examples of cold stretches.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7194 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Feb 13, 2010 12:18 pm

txagwxman wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:12Z GFS looks to bring the PV S into Canada with a cross Polar Flow beginning around hour 162. The 'finer details' will be worked out, but it does appear that some mighty chilly air is poised to dump into N America and the CONUS for the mid to late February time frame.

Yes...curious what the ECMWF is going to do. GFS ensembles maintain the pattern will be under cut by Pacific flow by day 10...thus not as cold.


One has to wonder if the GFS ensembles have hit a road block with the pattern. Since we are seeing something rarely witnessed since 1950's, it does give pause to the fact that guidance may be have some difficulties in pattern recognition. Regardless, what an amazing blocking regime with MMW/SSW event as well as a stout PNA ridge and A0 nearing -5.000. The thing that has been interesting is a split PV (weaker as well) and the whole N Hemisphere has been in on the action.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7195 Postby richtrav » Sat Feb 13, 2010 12:39 pm

iorange55 wrote:I just realized that you know before winter we're all like "I hope this winter is like this winter, or that winter" and we dream about having winters like that, but they never happen. But this time it kind of did, and I have a feeling 20 years from now people are going to be saying "Why can't we have a winter like 2010 again"


Really cool to be apart of it.


I certainly hope so!!! Twenty years sounds good to me.
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#7196 Postby wxman22 » Sat Feb 13, 2010 1:16 pm

The Canadian may be picking up on what the European is showing...

Image

And the Euro shows the moisture gown by the time the air gets cold enough for anything frozen in southeast Texas...

Image
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7197 Postby serenata09 » Sat Feb 13, 2010 2:11 pm

Heading back to Dallas today. Any snow still on the ground?
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7198 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat Feb 13, 2010 2:15 pm

serenata09 wrote:Heading back to Dallas today. Any snow still on the ground?


The Sun just came out, it's starting to melt. :cry:
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7199 Postby iorange55 » Sat Feb 13, 2010 2:23 pm

There is still snow on the ground. There will be some still tonight, so you should see some. But not in it's full glory.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7200 Postby Dustan78 » Sat Feb 13, 2010 2:39 pm

msstateguy83 wrote:I have posted a graphic i made just my thoughts on overall how this winter is
going to pan out for the tx/ok region, let me know if you agree or disagree. its likely
far from perfect but its best what i can picture at this time.

Image


Just saw this, seems to be pretty right on. Nice predictions.
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