Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Portastorm]

Several things different though:

1) Thankfully, it has a colder look than your last week's DFW Snowmageddon. Notice the 1040 mb high coming down the Rockies?

2) Appears to eject a piece of energy and not the whole low to the east

3) No hint of a developing surface low or trough in the Gulf, although that is almost always what happens when an ULL crashes into the state from the west during winter.

[txagwxman]

[iorange55]

:uarrow:

Several things different though:

1) Thankfully, it has a colder look than your last week's DFW Snowmageddon. Notice the 1040 mb high coming down the Rockies?

2) Appears to eject a piece of energy and not the whole low to the east

3) No hint of a developing surface low or trough in the Gulf, although that is almost always what happens when an ULL crashes into the state from the west during winter.

Which means more people might get in on this storm, hopefully. Least I think so.

[Portastorm]

Wow txagwxman ... the energy coming into that trough and upper low is impressive!

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:

Several things different though:

1) Thankfully, it has a colder look than your last week's DFW Snowmageddon. Notice the 1040 mb high coming down the Rockies?

2) Appears to eject a piece of energy and not the whole low to the east

3) No hint of a developing surface low or trough in the Gulf, although that is almost always what happens when an ULL crashes into the state from the west during winter.

Well due to lack of data, I didn't assume it kept energy back (I did think that though). My assumption was to keep it strictly as an idea of another weak disturbance which it is (connect to or not, in itself could become another problem possibly). Though you're probably right. Colder look would mean higher snow ratios and a larger area of precip even away from the coast because of no coastal low forming if that were to verify.

[srainhoutx]

HPC thoughts in the Final Extended Disco...talk about a new wrinkle...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
230 PM EST WED FEB 17 2010

VALID 12Z SAT FEB 20 2010 - 12Z WED FEB 24 2010

OVER THE NEXT WEEK...A STRONG NEGATIVE NAO WILL CONTINUE AT HIGH
LATITUDES...WHILE AN ACTIVE
SRN STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH EL NINO WILL PERSIST AT LOW LATITUDES.
IN BETWEEN IS WHERE THE RUBBER MEETS THE ROAD. IN THE MIDDLE
LATITUDES...COMPLEX INTERACTIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND POLAR/ARCTIC SYS THAT HAVE BEEN DETOURED S OF
THEIR NORMAL TRACK BY THE PERSISTENT STRONG NEGATIVE NAO. ENSEMBLE
SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW THAT THE GREATEST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY WILL
BE HANDLING THE DETAILS OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES UNDERCUTTING THE
STRONG MID AND HIGHER LATITUDE RIDGE OVER THE W COAST OF NOAM.

THESE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS HAVE PROVEN TO BE A CHALLENGE FOR THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE GFS. CONTINUITY BREAKS DOWN IN THE NEW 12Z/17 GFS
RUN FROM ITS 00Z RUN AS EARLY AS SUN DAY 4...WHERE NRN STREAM
ENERGY GETS TUCKED SW UNDER THE SE SIDE OF A BLOCKING HIGH OVER
THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE RATHER THAN DROPPING MORE S INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AS PER 00Z/17 GFS CONTINUITY. THIS RESULTS IN A SUBSEQUENT
DIFFERENT HANDLING OF TWO SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES ...PUTTING THEM
OUT OF PHASE WITH 00Z GFS CONTINUITY BY SUN EVE.

WE WOULD HAVE IGNORED THE NEW 12Z GFS WITH THE WAY IT BROUGHT A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALL THE WAY TOWARDS THE MID MS VLY BY SUN
EVE/EARLY MON...WERE IT NOT FOR THE FACT THAT ALMOST ALL THE
REMAINDER OF 12Z/17 GUIDANCE CLUSTERS FAIRLY WELL ON A 500MB TROF
NEAR OR JUST E OF 90W BY MON MORNING DAY 5. THIS CONSENSUS CLUSTER
LED US TO ACCEPT THE TREND THAT THE 00Z/17 CANADIAN HAD SHOWN IN
MOVING A LOW UP THE OH VLY. IN FACT THE NEW ECMWF ALSO JOINED THE
MAJORITY CLUSTER MOVING A LOW UP THE OH VLY ON DAY 5... WHICH WAS
SIMILAR TO ITS DAY 6 RUN FROM 12Z YESTERDAY.

AWAY FROM OUR ADJUSTMENT OF THE NEW OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC STORM
EARLY NEXT WEEK...FINAL PROGS STAYED WITH THE SAME BLEND THAT WAS
USED IN THE UPDATED PRELIM....A ECMWF GEFS MEAN/ECMWF MEAN DAY 3-5
THAT TAPERED TO ALL GEFS MEAN AND ECMWF MEAN BY WED DAY 7.

CONCERNING THE NEXT POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT STORM TO AFFECT THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MON/TUE...
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM APPEARS TO BE N OF
WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN THIS YEAR....ACROSS
THE SRN GRT LAKES INTO SRN NEW ENG. THE MID ATLANTIC AREA MAY SEE
MIXED PRECIP AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT BUT CHANGE TO RA FAIRLY
QUICKLY FROM S TO N. THE BEST THREAT OF HVY SNOWFALL APPEARS TO BE
FROM N OF NEW YORK CITY TO BOS AT THIS TIME. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OF THIS SYS THRU THE
GULF STATES.

SRN NSTREAM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BRING GEENROUS PRPECIP TO CA WITH
LESSER BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES.

FLOOD

[srainhoutx]

For a reminder since there were some major changes today via the 12Z guidance, RECON for the Pacific will continue...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 171800
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EST WED 17 FEBRUARY 2010
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z FEBRUARY 2010
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-079

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. P28/ 35.0N 150.8W/ 19/1200Z
B. AFXXX 33WSC TRACK28
C. 19/0600Z
D. 20 DROPS ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 19/1800Z

FLIGHT TWO - NOAA49
A. P99/ 40.0N 172.0E /19/1200Z
B. NOAA9 34WSW TRACK99
C. 19/0800Z
D. REQUEST 20 DROPS EAST OF 150E
E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 19/1800Z
F. TRACK: 36.3N 140.6E, 44.8N 166.6E, 43.9N 169.8E,
40.0N 172.8E, 34.1N 170.7E, 36.3N 155.4E,
36.4N 139.7E.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PSBL GIV GLIGHT/
TRACK TBD/ 19/1200Z

3. NOTE: THE TRACK FOR MISSION 31WSC WAS CHANGED BY THE
SDM FROM TRACK 29 TO TRACK 21 FOR 18/1200Z. WVW

[txagwxman]

First time I have seen the satellite data show a warm-up in a while...but most of this is related to the Nino but not all.

[srainhoutx]

First time I have seen the satellite data show a warm-up in a while...but most of this is related to the Nino but not all.

Makes you wonder if it is related to the Historic SSW/MMW event that just occurred.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro doesn't really show a significant event for next week over Texas. Just some upslope precip out in west Texas next Tue/Wed.

[txagwxman]

12Z Euro doesn't really show a significant event for next week over Texas. Just some upslope precip out in west Texas next Tue/Wed.

Yes it is little drier compared to earlier runs. A few ECMWF ensembles support earlier solutions though.

[txagwxman]

First time I have seen the satellite data show a warm-up in a while...but most of this is related to the Nino but not all.

Makes you wonder if it is related to the Historic SSW/MMW event that just occurred.

Most of this warming is over the oceans...Pacific/Atlantic/Indian oceans are running well above normal.

[Portastorm]

Rarely do I like to poke fun at other NWSFOs besides my own ... but I just read this snippet from the afternoon AFD out of Fort Worth:

THE AREA REMAINS IN NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SURPRISING AMOUNT OF PATTERN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH MODELS PROG AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. GFS IS VERY WET...WITH QPF
GREATER THAN ONE INCH AREAWIDE...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS PRECIP
TOTALS LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR
THIS PACKAGE AND WILL KEEP ALL PRECIP AS RAIN.

All I have to say is "wow man!" ... when will the Fort Worth office learn? This is the stuff that drives me nuts about my local Austin/San Antonio office. There appears to be no continuity between the early morning AFD and this one. The one from early this morning talked about a possible winter scenario. This one? Nope, nothing. Rain next Wednesday? Haaa! Good luck with that forecast guys. It'll probably be as accurate as last week's "one to two inches of snow on grassy surfaces."

[iorange55]

What I learned from this winter is that one storm is not certain a week in advance. Whether you're saying it will not happen, or will happen. But if I was them i'd be mighty careful about it. They don't want to be off by 12 inches again a day before the event.

[Portastorm]

What I learned from this winter is that one storm is not certain a week in advance. Whether you're saying it will not happen, or will happen. But if I was them i'd be mighty careful about it. They don't want to be off by 12 inches again a day before the event.

And iorange55, I'm ok with that. I'm not asking for a perfect forecast this far out ... but for Pete's sake, shouldn't there be some consistency and continuity out of the same office? The early morning AFD never came out and said it but strongly hinted how the Euro was suggesting wintry weather.

Two weeks ago when y'all had your snowmageddon and I had my five minutes of slushy sleet ... our local NWSFO office about 72 hours out had two days in a row where the morning crew forecasted a wintry mix for the day of the event and then the afternoon forecast would come out and completely remove the chances of sleet. Trust me, it drove the emergency management folks bonkers as they tried to plan ahead!

[Ntxw]

That's so true, this winter has given them quite a handful. Usually extremes shown in the models on a typical winter don't come true however a few have this winter and has given them so much problems. I understand it's difficult when models don't agree and are inconsistent, but you should take a look at how the climatology/patterns of the winter has gone and take it from there. This is why I am so grateful for the mets we have on this forum who puts a forecast (given whether I like it or not ) and changes it accordingly in a timely manner based on more than just model flip flops. NWS climategate anyone? lol jk jk...

18z GFS for those keeping track. 174-204hr

[txagwxman]

18z finally catching a clue?

[Texas Snowman]

What I learned from this winter is that one storm is not certain a week in advance. Whether you're saying it will not happen, or will happen. But if I was them i'd be mighty careful about it. They don't want to be off by 12 inches again a day before the event.

Day BEFORE the event? LOL!!! They were 9 inches off the day OF the event.

Last Thursday morning, I believe the official FW NWS line was 1-3 inches. PUH-LEEZE!

[Ntxw]

What I learned from this winter is that one storm is not certain a week in advance. Whether you're saying it will not happen, or will happen. But if I was them i'd be mighty careful about it. They don't want to be off by 12 inches again a day before the event.

Day BEFORE the event? LOL!!! They were 9 inches off the day OF the event.

Last Thursday morning, I believe the official FW NWS line was 1-3 inches. PUH-LEEZE!

Also "last band" of heavy precip according to them was over past noon with 4-5 inches on the ground was supposed to be it.

[perk]

18z finally catching a clue?

txagwxman exactly what is the 18z telling us.