ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[KWT]

Interestingly I'm not so sure anymore that the El nino will rapidly collapse, sure the SOI is positive and the subsurface is cold but there is no real upwelling occuring of the subsurface either at the moment and teleconnections are the moment aren't really favouring a rapid decline, but rather a slow decline towards neutral and perhaps cool neutral by October/November.

[srainhoutx]

Interestingly I'm not so sure anymore that the El nino will rapidly collapse, sure the SOI is positive and the subsurface is cold but there is no real upwelling occuring of the subsurface either at the moment and teleconnections are the moment aren't really favouring a rapid decline, but rather a slow decline towards neutral and perhaps cool neutral by October/November.

Region 1+2 got your attention KWT? I have stated that the 'quick demise' of El Nino may be "over rated". We shall see.

[cycloneye]

El Nino 3.4 continues to go down slowly.

[cycloneye]

The ECMWF daily subsurface graphic shows how those warm waters slowly continue to wane while the cool waters expand.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... me/xzmaps/

[cycloneye]

The 30 day SOI index continues to make this impressive run upward,tonight's update up to +12.0.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt


http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

[cycloneye]

I know that many members do not know what the heck SOI means At link below you can read the whole explanation about what is this oscillation and how it can forecast when El Nino is waning and Neutral or La Nina comes to life or viceversa.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml

Sustained negative values of the SOI often indicate El Niño episodes. These negative values are usually accompanied by sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, a decrease in the strength of the Pacific Trade Winds, and a reduction in rainfall over eastern and northern Australia. The most recent strong El Niño was in 1997/98, although its effect on Australia was rather limited. Severe droughts resulted from the weak to moderate El Niño events of 2002/03 and 2006/07.

Positive values of the SOI are associated with stronger Pacific trade winds and warmer sea temperatures to the north of Australia, popularly known as a La Niña episode. Waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become cooler during this time. Together these give an increased probability that eastern and northern Australia will be wetter than normal. The most recent strong La Niña was in 1988/89. A moderate La Niña developed slowly during 2007.

[KWT]

It also should be added that the SOI can show some big disconnection from the ENSO state over small periods of time, for example in the 2006 El nino the SOI stayed positive right upto the start of the decay of the El nino when it finally flipped.

[BigA]

It also should be added that the SOI can show some big disconnection from the ENSO state over small periods of time, for example in the 2006 El nino the SOI stayed positive right upto the start of the decay of the El nino when it finally flipped.

This is entirely true; last summer showed that pretty well.

However, in general, there is remarkable correlation, and the high SOIs at least mean no more Kelvin waves for now, which are what has been keeping this Nino going. In the last 3 days, Nino 1+2 looks to have cooled back down a decent amount, as the central pacific warm anomalies continue to slowly degrade.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anom_anim.html

[cycloneye]

The cool subsurface waters slowly but surely continue to expand.

Daily Subsurface update by ECMWF on April 22

[cycloneye]

Tonight's update of the SOI continues its movement up,now to +13.3. With this sharp climb of the SOI,we are seeing the very last stage of what may be left of El Nino.

20100322,20100420,12.0
20100323,20100421,13.3

[cycloneye]

The upward movement of the 30 day SOI may come to a halt in tonight's update as the daily data has come down.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

[cycloneye]

April 23 Daily Subsurface Graphic

[cycloneye]

The CFS model has not changed much from its past forecast of Neutral ENSO by late May or early June.But the change comes later as the model goes to La Nina more earlier than in the past weeks.

[BigA]

April 23 Daily Subsurface Graphic

Looks to me that when/if that little tongue around 145 west gets to the surface, it will break the back of the remaining el nino.

[KWT]

Certainly interesting to see, though the CFS is still less agressive than the ECM which goes into moderate range with quite a few members of the ensemble...

I still think La Nina maybe a little optimistic...we shall see!

[Blown Away]

What's a good analog year when there was a transition from neutral to La Nina during the heart of the hurricane season?

[KWT]

If we go La Nina I'd imagine 1998 and 2007 would be the best recent examples. 1995 became weak La Nina by Autumn as well.

[wxman57]

Check past seasons' ENSO values here:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ears.shtml

2005 would be a good analog, too. And the SST pattern in the Atlantic is most similar to 2005.

[KWT]

1958 would be a good one as well IMO given the El Nino winter and the SST's being well above average, though that season the El nino only very slowly decayed into the summer.

[Blown Away]

1958 would be a good one as well IMO given the El Nino winter and the SST's being well above average, though that season the El nino only very slowly decayed into the summer.

Lots if fishies if 1958 happens, seems like a good analog due to the above average MDR SST's and predicted weaker BH. Maybe we will see more storms develope farther E resulting in more recurves??