Global model runs discussion

[gatorcane]

OK so it is WAY out there and we know the 12Z GFS is quite unreliable this far out but it is showing some kind of tropical system in the NW Caribbean that heads NE into Cuba and into the Bahamas:

[cycloneye]

For the past few runs,GFS has been showing something developing in the SW Caribbean but is almost 2 weeks ahead so you know the drill about that. However,its getting closer to that time of the year when things start to pop in that area.

00z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Macrocane]

For the last 2 or 3 days it has been developing a tropical low/depression in the EPAC or the Caribbean, it has been changing the location but certainly it sees the energy developing near that area. It reminds me when it predicted the formation of Alma/Arthur, sometimes it developed the system in the EPAC and sometimes in the Caribbean and in the end both regions experienced development.

[cycloneye]

What GFS is showing in the past few days coincides with a MJO pulse that will arrive at the EPAC/SW Caribbean by late April /early May.

[Macrocane]

Could this be one of those MJO seasons like 2008? That year we saw development every time that the enhanced phase of the MJO reached the Atlantic:

Arthur
Dolly
Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike
Omar, Sixteen

All of them formed during a wet phase of the MJO.

[cycloneye]

It looks like GFS has setteled for the EPAC side.

[Macrocane]

And the GFS doesn't decide yet where the tropical system is going to develop, on the last run it develops a strong system in the EPAC, but it is still on the very long range so everything culd change:

[Macrocane]

LOL

At least we posted different pictures.

[tolakram]

Just like last year and the year before. If the models develop something in the ATL you can bet it's real location will be the EPAC. May 15th getting close.

[cycloneye]

For now is only GFS that is showing this because is the model that has the longest range in time.I am eagered to see what ECMWF may have when the 10 days arrive for it to start to show something.

[wxman57]

Three weeks ago, the GFS was forecasting a deep low tracking ENE across the Gulf of Mexico for last Wed-Thu. It kept forecasting the deep low right up until 5-6 days before the event, then it dropped it.

[cycloneye]

Now GFS has it forming on the Caribbean side.Waiting on ECMWF.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

12Z and 18Z GFS still showing development in the Caribbean with the low drifting NW out around 12+ days. Obviously its very far out. I did follow a low that the GFS was forecasting to develop in the NW Carib and track NE into the Bahamas. At around 12-14 days out it showed this feature and it ended up being a weak surface low attached to a frontal system that pushed ENE-NE through the FL straits. That was the low that pushed through South FL last weekend.

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It's quite possible looking at the long-range MJO forecasts and GFS forecasts that we get a broad area of disturbed weather in the extreme Southern Caribbean and EPAC and through Panama around 12-14 days from now. Most likley this area will drift into the EPAC and not be an area that will consolidate in the Caribbean.

[Ivanhater]

Well if you remember last year during Memorial Day Weekend, there was a system in the Gulf that was very close to being named, Invest 90L. Heavy rain and storm surge on the North Central Gulf coast, so it is possible.

This image from last years system

[wxman57]

The GFS always tries to develop something in the western Caribbean in May. This year, the Gulf is quite a bit cooler than last year, though. I'll believe it when it's showing development within 5 days and the ECMWF agrees.

[cycloneye]

The extreme Eastern Pacific area may turn favorable as the wet MJO moves thru and low level convergence increases and that is why some models are semi bullish more so GFS.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS wants to spin off some energy from the ITCZ and form a surface low and associated tropical wave that traverses the Southern Caribbean with strong ridging to the north (strong Bermuda High) over most of the Western Atlantic and Caribbean. It's far out there but the hints that tropical season is near are certainly there:

[cycloneye]

Nothing yet from ECMWF.

[Ivanhater]

Well if this image doesn't show you that tropical season is knocking, I don't know what will.

Tropical storm in the EPAC, tropical disturbance/depression in the Atl.



Not to mention the 06z GFS, showing dual tropical storms in the ATL

[Dean4Storms]

If things start out like this, it will be a LONG hurricane season I'm afraid!