EPAC / Caribbean development later this week?

[HURAKAN]

[Ivanhater]

This is the first EPAC storm. I don't care where it's showing it develop, for the 3rd (that I've been paying attention too) year in a row the models are showing something developing in the SW Caribbean and I'd bet money this will be an EPAC system.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. Even if it does form in the EPAC, it looks like the steering would be off to the NE.

[Dean4Storms]

We basically have had 3 or 4 models showing possible development in the SW Carib. If this continues through today's model runs we just might have a player!

[cycloneye]

Somewhat less agressive GFS in this 12z run. See loop below.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

The 12z Canadian model shows a weak system in SW Caribbean but a stronger subtropical or tropical system NE of Bahamas.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[HURAKAN]

HPC has a low in 5 days in the Caribbean

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS shows a pretty concentrated low for this time of year in the SW Carib in 144 hours, developing even sooner than that:

[Steve H.]

If your analog is 1995, this is where Allison formed around June 1st.

[HURAKAN]

00z

[xcool22]

CMC TOO

[cycloneye]

The EURO has at least a TD in SW Caribbean.

[HURAKAN]

Not a lot of movement

[HURAKAN]

Everything is coming together:



Where's everyone? Hibernation is over!!!

[pepeavilenho]

Everything is coming together:
Where's everyone? Hibernation is over!!!

This system looks better than Bahamas system, I think we could have a Tropical Storm before 1st June...

[Jagno]

Hurakan;

We're here.............checking, watching and holding our collective breath to blow this development away from the oil spill. Everyone, including you I'm sure, really doesn't want to know the effects of oil, wind and water outside of a salad dressing.

Besides, Hurricane season isn't suppose to start until June 1st so this is just a figment of our imaginations right? LOL

[Evil Jeremy]

Hmm... *checks calendar*

Its not time yet! I wanted more sleep lol!

Ah, time to rearrange my bookmarks for the next 6 months. Welcome to Hurricane Season

[blp]

Where's everyone? Hibernation is over!!![/quote]

I was wondering the same thing. We have the NOGAPS, GFS, ECMWF & CMC on board with possibly multiple systems and we only have two pages on this thread. We should be at 10 pages by now. It might be a good thing though because the way this season is shaping up we may need a bigger server or boat to use a Jaws line to house all the posts!!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I'm sure as soon as the media has something to say about it, the troops will come flooding back in!

Does this still appear like it will head NNE over Cuba/Bahamas and miss Florida/Gulf altogether? That would be ideal due to the oil slick. As it is, if it is a close pass to the east of the penninsula, it could blow back on the oil being carried by the loop current and cause tar balls to run ashore along the Southeast beaches.

Woke again this morning to the pleasant smell of kerosene from their attempts to burn off hte surface oil hundreds of miles away offshore from where I live. ugh

[KWT]

Given where the weakness are at the moment steering tracks would indeed likely eventually drag this system up through the Caribbean NNE.

It does need very close watching, this is a classic breeding ground for Late May/Early June systems to develop.

[Janie2006]

It seems hibernation is indeed over.

I've been watching the thread and the models over the last couple of days and I'm becoming more convinced that this is the leading event of a very active tropical season.