EPAC / Caribbean development later this week?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#21 Postby HURAKAN » Tue May 18, 2010 9:56 am

Image

Image

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#22 Postby Ivanhater » Tue May 18, 2010 11:17 am

tolakram wrote:This is the first EPAC storm. I don't care where it's showing it develop, for the 3rd (that I've been paying attention too) year in a row the models are showing something developing in the SW Caribbean and I'd bet money this will be an EPAC system.


I wouldn't be so sure about that. Even if it does form in the EPAC, it looks like the steering would be off to the NE.
0 likes   
Michael

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#23 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue May 18, 2010 11:49 am

We basically have had 3 or 4 models showing possible development in the SW Carib. If this continues through today's model runs we just might have a player!
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145595
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#24 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 18, 2010 11:52 am

Somewhat less agressive GFS in this 12z run. See loop below.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145595
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#25 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 18, 2010 12:33 pm

The 12z Canadian model shows a weak system in SW Caribbean but a stronger subtropical or tropical system NE of Bahamas.

Image

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#26 Postby HURAKAN » Tue May 18, 2010 2:39 pm

Image

HPC has a low in 5 days in the Caribbean
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#27 Postby gatorcane » Tue May 18, 2010 7:15 pm

18Z GFS shows a pretty concentrated low for this time of year in the SW Carib in 144 hours, developing even sooner than that:

Image
0 likes   

Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2147
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#28 Postby Steve H. » Tue May 18, 2010 10:22 pm

If your analog is 1995, this is where Allison formed around June 1st.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#29 Postby HURAKAN » Tue May 18, 2010 11:27 pm

00z

Image
0 likes   

xcool22

#30 Postby xcool22 » Wed May 19, 2010 1:18 am

CMC TOO
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145595
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#31 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 19, 2010 6:00 am

The EURO has at least a TD in SW Caribbean.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#32 Postby HURAKAN » Wed May 19, 2010 7:21 am

Image

Not a lot of movement
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#33 Postby HURAKAN » Wed May 19, 2010 7:38 am

Everything is coming together:

Image

Where's everyone? Hibernation is over!!!
0 likes   

pepeavilenho
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 171
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:01 pm

Re:

#34 Postby pepeavilenho » Wed May 19, 2010 7:57 am

HURAKAN wrote:Everything is coming together:
Where's everyone? Hibernation is over!!!


:lol:

This system looks better than Bahamas system, I think we could have a Tropical Storm before 1st June...
0 likes   

Jagno
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Tue Sep 07, 2004 10:40 pm
Location: SW Louisiana

Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#35 Postby Jagno » Wed May 19, 2010 8:03 am

Hurakan;

We're here.............checking, watching and holding our collective breath to blow this development away from the oil spill. Everyone, including you I'm sure, really doesn't want to know the effects of oil, wind and water outside of a salad dressing.

Besides, Hurricane season isn't suppose to start until June 1st so this is just a figment of our imaginations right? LOL
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#36 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed May 19, 2010 8:29 am

Hmm... *checks calendar*

Its not time yet! I wanted more sleep lol!

Ah, time to rearrange my bookmarks for the next 6 months. Welcome to Hurricane Season 8-)
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2840
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#37 Postby blp » Wed May 19, 2010 8:36 am

Where's everyone? Hibernation is over!!![/quote]

I was wondering the same thing. We have the NOGAPS, GFS, ECMWF & CMC on board with possibly multiple systems and we only have two pages on this thread. We should be at 10 pages by now. It might be a good thing though because the way this season is shaping up we may need a bigger server or boat to use a Jaws line to house all the posts!!
0 likes   

User avatar
TreasureIslandFLGal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1581
Age: 57
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 6:16 pm
Location: Clearwater, Florida ~3 miles from the coast now. We finally moved safely off the barrier island!

Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#38 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Wed May 19, 2010 8:56 am

I'm sure as soon as the media has something to say about it, the troops will come flooding back in!

Does this still appear like it will head NNE over Cuba/Bahamas and miss Florida/Gulf altogether? That would be ideal due to the oil slick. As it is, if it is a close pass to the east of the penninsula, it could blow back on the oil being carried by the loop current and cause tar balls to run ashore along the Southeast beaches.

Woke again this morning to the pleasant smell of kerosene from their attempts to burn off hte surface oil hundreds of miles away offshore from where I live. ugh
0 likes   
Chrissy & Ligeia
:flag:

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#39 Postby KWT » Wed May 19, 2010 9:11 am

Given where the weakness are at the moment steering tracks would indeed likely eventually drag this system up through the Caribbean NNE.

It does need very close watching, this is a classic breeding ground for Late May/Early June systems to develop.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
Janie2006
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1329
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:28 pm
Location: coastal Ms aka home of the hurricanes

Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#40 Postby Janie2006 » Wed May 19, 2010 9:18 am

It seems hibernation is indeed over.

I've been watching the thread and the models over the last couple of days and I'm becoming more convinced that this is the leading event of a very active tropical season.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Cpv17, gib, lilbump3000 and 85 guests