EPAC / Caribbean development later this week?

[cycloneye]

A kind of summary of the models on the tracks for the Caribbean system minus EURO in this graphic.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Very interesting to see all of the models jumping on this possible tropical cyclone next week. Whether or not anything actually ever develops is yet to be seen, but with so much model support it definitely seems to be worth watching. An early season sheared TD or TS forming in the western Caribbean and then heading northward definitely wouldn't be an unheard of occurrence.

[KWT]

Without a doubt, in fact both systems that the models develop are possible developmental zones in the early season period hence why both must be watched.

Still this one has the best shot at being a purely tropical feature thats for sure.

[tailgater]

If this should develop it looks like the models are bringing the moisture and energy from near Panama northward but it might be that, along with the trough near the Eastern Yucatan, drifting eastward. it already shows signs of some 850 mb vorticity can't do anything thankfully because the shear is still way too strong.

[HURAKAN]

Panama City reporting 1006 mb.

Link - http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MPTO.html

Pressures are already very low in the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

TAFB analysis at 72 hours.

[HURAKAN]

18z GFS - 48 hours

[HURAKAN]

18z GFS - 102 hours

[cycloneye]

18z NOGAPS at 144 hours

Low going up in intensity.

[HURAKAN]

Interesting vorticity over Yucatan, near the coast.

[gatorcane]

There is a surface low there at the moment. Looking at the wind shear projections from the models, there is little, if any chance this low becomes tropical. Likely will move ENE into the NW Caribbean while the convection gets sheared apart and blown of to the ENE while the low gradually weakens and dissipates. Eventually convection should diminish in the NW Carib and convection should be present in the vicinity of the Bahamas and north of the island of Hispaniola.

As for the SW Caribbean development, I'm leaning towards "no" on development at this time. Still calling for an area of convection to develop in the SW Caribbean with weak surface low that gets pull NNE to NE into a large weakness that should form out around 7 days from now. The MJO pulse will move in from the EPAC and spread into the SW Caribbean that will spark this low to form. Main reason is the high shear blowing in from the West that does not appear that it will let up for the 10 days or so. Of course shear projections can be wrong. It's also a bit early for development in this area. In about 4 weeks it will be a different story though...

[KWT]

Not so sure about the idea its too early Gatorcane, SST's are above average and whilst its not common, once you get to late May, development in the Caribbean becomes increasingly possible , really the conditions aren't much different between late May and early June.

That being said the models aren't that suggestive despite most suggesting some weak development...remains to be seen what actually occurs!

[guyclaude08]

HERE WE GO AGAIN.......BACk TO WORK YOU GUYS

[AdamFirst]

Oh man, the bear watching is starting early this year.

[Derek Ortt]

0Z models backed off

[xcool22]

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Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[KWT]

Yep the 0z models have somewhat backed off development, then again they weren't really doing much with it in the first place really...

[Frank2]

Here's the latest GFS loop - nothing to get in a spin over (lol):

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

[tolakram]

epac epac epac epac

I have no clue of course, but we've seen the blob before.

[HURAKAN]

gone