EPAC : EX TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep902010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201005251857
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010052518, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP902010
EP, 90, 2010052500, , BEST, 0, 108N, 880W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2010052506, , BEST, 0, 109N, 883W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2010052512, , BEST, 0, 110N, 886W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2010052518, , BEST, 0, 111N, 889W, 20, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 160, 20, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[srainhoutx]

We may very well see Agatha forming. It will be nice to see what the tropical tracking models suggest in regards to 90E.

[Evil Jeremy]

Now the question is, will something significant be able to form before this system crosses over into the Caribbean, and if so, will it remain together over its land travel.

[Category 5]

That is to be seen, depends how in tact it is when it moves back over water. If it holds its core (or at least keeps it in tact) it may very well be a double storm.

[cycloneye]

First model run by the tropical models has it at 64kts at maximun before it makes landfall.

WHXX01 KMIA 251859
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1859 UTC TUE MAY 25 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902010) 20100525 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100525 1800 100526 0600 100526 1800 100527 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.1N 88.9W 11.7N 89.4W 12.7N 90.2W 13.6N 91.3W
BAMD 11.1N 88.9W 11.0N 89.6W 11.4N 90.4W 12.1N 91.4W
BAMM 11.1N 88.9W 11.3N 89.6W 11.8N 90.3W 12.5N 91.1W
LBAR 11.1N 88.9W 11.4N 89.2W 12.2N 89.9W 13.5N 90.6W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 40KTS 55KTS
DSHP 20KTS 27KTS 40KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100527 1800 100528 1800 100529 1800 100530 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 92.1W 15.3N 92.4W 16.0N 89.1W 18.3N 84.2W
BAMD 13.1N 92.5W 14.8N 93.9W 15.9N 92.7W 17.4N 89.6W
BAMM 13.3N 92.0W 15.1N 92.2W 17.0N 87.9W 20.5N 80.6W
LBAR 14.8N 90.8W 17.0N 89.2W 18.3N 83.5W 21.8N 74.8W
SHIP 63KTS 64KTS 59KTS 58KTS
DSHP 63KTS 48KTS 32KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.1N LONCUR = 88.9W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 10.9N LONM12 = 88.3W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 87.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[KWT]

I think this probably will become a TS, possibly even come close to a hurricaxne before it recurves towards Mexico.

As for the future b eyond that possible future landfall, the risk the enerrgy makes it to the Caribbean is certainly there IMO, but much depends on how quickly it recurves, the GFDL does have something of a right bias at times with these sorts of systems that haven't yet developed.

[Macrocane]

The Euro does not show anything in the last run, I don't know what's happening to it but in the last few weeks it has not been as consistent as it was used to:

Euro 48 hours

[KWT]

Worth noting the 12z ECM ensembles do show something though given we can only see the mean it shows up as a weak featuyre, but the fact the ensembles do show something at all suggests the 12z ECM probably just didn't do a good job on it, esp given most other models are keen...

Still early days yet with this system, will be interesting to see what the 18z models suggests.

I do like the general idea of the models going W/WNW then eventually lift N/NNE and recurve towards Mexico.

[cycloneye]

[Hurricane Andrew]

WOW! something to track! i ave so much to say i will say it soon! Sorry, hype attack.

[somethingfunny]

90E is looking good. I'm not sold on its' durability on the Atlantic side, though. Crossovers are rare and the farther north it makes landfall the more landmass it will have to traverse.

Time to go find the BAMS/BAMM/BAMD model suite, or as I like to call it, the Bible of Cyclone Potential.

[cycloneye]

90E is looking good. I'm not sold on its' durability on the Atlantic side, though. Crossovers are rare and the farther north it makes landfall the more landmass it will have to traverse.

Time to go find the BAMS/BAMM/BAMD model suite, or as I like to call it, the Bible of Cyclone Potential.

Is 6 posts above your post.

[cycloneye]

The latest image.Is still not very well organized as it's in the early stage.

[Hurricane Andrew]

How do you make a search go away! i searched, i found what i'm looking for, now i cant make the highlighted words go away!

[HURAKAN]

72 hours ... 90E makes landfall

[somethingfunny]

90E is looking good. I'm not sold on its' durability on the Atlantic side, though. Crossovers are rare and the farther north it makes landfall the more landmass it will have to traverse.

Time to go find the BAMS/BAMM/BAMD model suite, or as I like to call it, the Bible of Cyclone Potential.

Is 6 posts above your post.

Found it! Thank you sir!

As a general FYI, the policy was changed recently so crossover storms keep the same name instead of getting renamed. No more Cesar-Douglas or Joan-Miriam. You may see on Wikipedia that Alma became Arthur, but Wikipedia is wrong. Alma's remnants combined with another tropical wave to become Arthur. From what I understand, if 90E develops, hits land, and survives to the Atlantic side as a coherent system, it would remain Agatha.

[HURAKAN]

A lot of vortices but no definite center, yet

[HURAKAN]

[Cookie]

Nice image mate

[cycloneye]

Marcocane,is directly South from where you are.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE MAY 25 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTH
OF EL SALVADOR IN CENTRAL AMERICA. ALTHOUGH THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE DRIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA