ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 5/24/10 update

The declines continue in all the regions of ENSO except for El Nino 4 that is down at a slower pace.La Nina is closer than ever now.

Last Week Numbers

Niño 4= +0.4ºC
Nino 3.4= -0.1
Niño 3= 0.0ºC
Niño1+2= +0.4ºC


This Week Numbers

Niño 4= +0.3ºC
Nino 3.4= -0.2
Niño 3= -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2= -0.1ºC


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Here is todays image of the subsurface in the Pacific,and you can see how the cold waters are dominating the ocean.IMO,La Nina will be declared officially by late June or early July.

[KWT]

Interesting signal from the waters at the moment, the western portion still holding on to positive values which the rest of the basin continues to cool...

That cold water could upwell further east near SA and if that happens then it tends to lead to a very favourable region for development in the SW part of the Atlantic basin...so needs to be watched.

[cycloneye]

There is consensus between Climate Prediction Center and the Australians about having the 3.4 area at -0.2.

[cycloneye]

Australian 5/26/10 update

It looks like Neutral ENSO will not last long as La Nina conditions are advancing to take over the equatorial Pacific.See whole update at below hyperlink.

ENSO Wrap-Up

Climate indicators across the equatorial Pacific are currently neutral. Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures, trade winds, the Southern Oscillation Index and cloudiness over the Pacific are all at levels considered typical of neutral conditions (i.e. neither El Niño nor La Niña).

Historically, about 35~40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year. Currently, a large volume of cooler than normal water is present below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which indicates that further cooling of the surface of the tropical Pacific is likely.

International climate models predict continued cooling of the Pacific Ocean sea surface, with the majority of models surveyed by the Bureau predicting that this cooling will be sufficient to see the development of La Niña conditions later in the year. No climate models suggest a return to El Niño conditions. It should be noted that correctly predicting transitional periods of the El Niño Southern Oscillation is more difficult than predicting the continuation or decline of El Niño or La Niña events.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Hello to La Nina!

[KWT]

Yep looks like La Nina is very close at least on the weeklies...

Interesting to finally see some old water also develop near SA, thats usually a feature you see in active hurricane seasons.

[cycloneye]

The SOI is firmly in positive territory meaning El Nino is nowhere to be found and La Nina is comming fast.The 90 day SOI is tonight at +3.25.

Daily SOI Values

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/


Daily 30 day SOI text

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[cycloneye]

Another graphic confirms the colder waters in the equatorial Pacific.Surely,La Nina is not too far away from being officially declared.

[RL3AO]

I can't believe how quick this is happening.

[KWT]

Cooling spreading further east,the 4 and possibly 3.4 zone may have warmed a little this week but its likely just short term changes.

Should be in La Nina during June I'd imagine.

[cycloneye]

The CFS (NCEP) model already forecasts La Nina by June.

[cycloneye]

The Australian model for ENSO (POAMA) is at Weak La Nina during the peak of the season and coincides with the CFS model.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 6/1/10 Weekly Update

All points for a transition from Neutral to La Nina to take place in the comming weeks.

Last Week Numbers

Niño 4= +0.3ºC
Nino 3.4= -0.2C
Niño 3= -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2= -0.1ºC


This Week Numbers

Niño 4= -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4= -0.2ºC
Niño 3= -0.4ºC
Niño1+2= -0.6ºC


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

The ENSO models predict La Nina to surface during the summer or early fall.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

[KWT]

La Nina will probably be around before the end of June at least on the weeklies, in fact June could end up being the first month to have an overall average into the La Nina range, though we have to wait and see on that front.

[cycloneye]

La Nina is really pushing up to the surface.

[cycloneye]

Another evidence that La Nina is around the corner is the SOI that has been positive since Mid-April and has not gone back to negative.And the 90 day SOI continues to go up.

Daily SOI Values

Daily 30 day SOI Text

[KWT]

If I had to make a punt cycloneye for ASO I'd go for a range between -0.8C to -1.2C, Its quite possible it will be higher then that, but I'd be very surprised if it ended up lower then -1.2C