ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[tolakram]

The RAMSDIS 1K floater has just moved over 92L for those wanting a closer look.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

from: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

A major fighter in impossible conditions.

[cycloneye]

There is no doubt that the Leewards,VI and Puerto Rico will not escape from this system that will bring squally weather to the NE Caribbean friday and Saturday.

[Ivanhater]

Amazing to see this fighter. Not shocking gfs redevelops in the gulf. BTW shear has dropped over the center

[srainhoutx]

There was a reason why wxman57 did not post 'Bones' yesterday.

[HurricaneBelle]

There was a reason why wxman57 did not post 'Bones' yesterday.

Yes, a classic case of Premature Ebonesulation.

[canes04]

Question, why would they issue code yellow, but say there is a 0% chance of forming in the next 48hrs

I still think this has a shot in a few days.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

There was a reason why wxman57 did not post 'Bones' yesterday.

Yes, a classic case of Premature Ebonesulation.

92L is still pretty impressive for June IMO...

[shortwave]

would be difficult for this to organize in the future, current trajectory will have it moving across the dominican and haiti. though shear values seem to be relaxing a bit.

[Blown Away]

Amazing to see this fighter. Not shocking gfs redevelops in the gulf. BTW shear has dropped over the center

I noticed that too, the cloud tops are not being blown off as fast as they were earlier. Once the circulation moves in the general area of PR the shear will drop off and maybe 92L will regenerate???

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps,look what is baaak!!

18 UTC Best Track

AL, 92, 2010061718, , BEST, 0, 160N, 585W, 25, 1012, WV

[tolakram]

Is that a west wind i see?

[srainhoutx]

Hey peeps,look what is baaak!!

18 UTC Best Track

AL, 92, 2010061718, , BEST, 0, 160N, 585W, 25, 1012, WV

Not surprised at all. With the tenacity that this disturbance has exhibited so far, it was best to not deactivate 92L.

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It is still fighting but I agree that once it reaches the Caribbean it will need to be wathed for possible development, I don't think it will develop before that and at this time it seems that it is producing some outflow boundaries and that means that is still under hostile conditions.

[Nederlander]

I think the NHC has pissed off 92 L lol.. he's struggling but he's certainly trying to make a name for himself... literally..

[jasons2k]

I just skimmed through the last few pages and I feel compelled to echo what some others have said.

The fact that we have not seen a named storm in the basin by June 17th surely should not be used as evidence to lower one's expectations now for a 'slower' season.

If anything, the fact that we had a Cape Verde wave almost develop in the open Atlantic (and I do think it was a TD as some have stated) should cause serious concern that the high predictions will verify after all. I have heard this from many a pro-met as well. This is a red flag if I ever saw one.

I am also becoming more concerned that 92L will be a player down the road and this isn't the last gasp of this system. As they say...stay tuned. It's going to be a very long and busy season ahead.

[Ivanhater]

Storms completely over the center now and I'm seeing inflow channels. Amazing considering the environment

[tolakram]

I think it's all about the problems with measuring and forecasting shear. Shear > should < increase later today and tonight, but maybe it won't. Bottom line, with improved upper air conditions we would have our first Storm.

[cycloneye]

The circulation is underneath the ball of convection.

[tolakram]

Another thing I'm seeing. When looking at the visible you see upper winds moving clouds NE west of the islands, but the storm tops of 92L are blowing off in an easterly direction.



Latest shear maps show this, but also indicate 92L should be moving under 40 to 50kts of shear. Wonder if something changed?



And by the way, look at all the west wind reports now.

[Weatherfreak000]

I agree with other posters here, the tenacity of the circulation of 92L in my mind brings a parallel to the circulation that brought about katrina. In fact, I would say the situation is almost nearly identical.


A tropical Depression forms...hits a wall of shear and from there heads towards the Florida Straits where it gets named. Of course from this point is where the comparisons almost certainly die and that's assuming 92L gets that far.



I would love to see some Pro Met input this afternoon. Clearly 92L deserves to be mentioned in the TWO if this improvement trend continues.