ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Macrocane]

I think 93 is suffering the same fate as 92.

Why? IMO The conditions are more conducive for development in the Caribbean than those we saw with 92L between Africa and the Antilles.

[Frank2]

...and surprisingly the GFS shows nothing at all…only a few of its ensemble members even show anything. I will discount the EURO and CMC as being much too intense resulting in a rightward track over the Gulf. Will side instead with the weaker solution of the NOGAPS, but stronger than the GFS.

It's still early, so we'll see how this evolves, but hopefully posters will refrain from those "landfalling in NOLA/Pensacola/Apalachicola" guesses - those poor folks have enough on their plate as it is without giving them any more stress than they already have, since several here over the weekend had 92L headed towards that area - and we know what became of 92L...

Frank

[CourierPR]

I think 93 is suffering the same fate as 92.

Based on what? You can clearly see on satellite that this system is gaining organization.

[clfenwi]

Recon flight penciled in for Wednesday.

NOUS42 KNHC 211330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT MON 21 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-021
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 16.ON 77.0W AT 23/1800Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[Frank2]

...my humble "guess" is that it's more of a MEX/BOC/TX issue - if it becomes an issue, that is (based on the weak ridging forecast to continue over the Northern Gulf)...

Frank

[Comanche]

...my humble "guess" is that it's more of a MEX/BOC/TX issue - if it becomes an issue, that is (based on the weak ridging forecast to continue over the Northern Gulf)...

Frank

I tend to agree with you on this.

[srainhoutx]

[ROCK]

what organization? I dont see anything at the surface yet....slight banding...anyone see something different?

[Aquawind]

Point..It's hard to see anything at the surface with all of the convection.. No more QuickScat..

[srainhoutx]

[djones65]

Ship reports suggest a very sharp trough is now apparent based on 1200 UTC observations. A unidentified ship at 1200 UTC near 13.1N and 68.9W reported due north winds from 360 degrees at 13 knots and a 1012 mb pressure. A buoy near 15.0N and 67.4W is now as of 1450 UTC reporting nearly due south winds at 160 degrees at 10-15 knots. It also showed a pressure rise/fall couplet of 2.3 mb during the past 24 hours. Now that the wave axis is west of the buoy the pressure has risen markedly, but a 2.3 mb change within 24 hours is pretty significant. The ship at 1200 UTC was centered about 100 miles west of the estimated center location at the same time. In the southern Caribbean Sea away from land masses, two observations of due north and nearly due south winds is very significant in my opinion and I believe that a circulation is attempting to close off. I agree that this system quite possibly will be worth monitoring very careully as the week unfolds.

[djones65]

The ASCAT image posted above is unfortunately over 13 hours old. It was taken at 0206 UTC last night, but the ship and buoy reports received during the past three hours clearly show a very sharp trough axis.

[Aquawind]

ASCAT not showing much directional change to the south as I would have expected..Well said djones it's old as well.

[Ivanhater]

The 00z model runs were sobering last night. Good news is it is far out, but the consistency of the Euro is concerning

[ROCK]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

not to shabby....

[ROCK]

The 00z model runs were sobering last night. Good news is it is far out, but the consistency of the Euro is concerning

Ivan the EURO was into MX yesterday...so the consistency is not there yet.......give it a few more runs and see if the other globals latch on.......Patience grasshopper... Last thing you guys need is a 12ft storm surge pushing toxic tar balls inland...

[Aquawind]

Bring on RECON!! Dang were back to the waiting game.. Gimme a LLC and then a couple of model runs! OR a poof would be fine as well..

[Macrocane]

Ivan the EURO was into MX yesterday...so the consistency is not there yet.......give it a few more runs and see if the other globals latch on.......Patience grasshopper... Last thing you guys need is a 12ft storm surge pushing toxic tar balls inland...

It has been consistent developing a tropical cyclone in the northwest Caribbean-GOM although you're right about not being consistent with the track.

[Ivanhater]

The 00z model runs were sobering last night. Good news is it is far out, but the consistency of the Euro is concerning

Ivan the EURO was into MX yesterday...so the consistency is not there yet.......give it a few more runs and see if the other globals latch on.......Patience grasshopper... Last thing you guys need is a 12ft storm surge pushing toxic tar balls inland...

Haaa, I know ROCK, I was concerning the consistency of the development of a strong system, not location. I tell you, someone on the gulf might have a bad week

My feeling is Texas /Louisiana, but that's a shot in the dark this early.

[Stormcenter]

Nothing there yet IMHO.

what organization? I dont see anything at the surface yet....slight banding...anyone see something different?