ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Stratosphere747]

Oz GFDL -

[ROCK]

the CMC seems odd merging 2 systems. I have seen this before though from this model...the NOGAPS is nothing to get excited about but that model never gets excited...

We need more RECON!!

[Ivanhater]

GFDL has a major hurricane in the gulf...115 knots

[HouTXmetro]

Bless the oil stricken LA/MS/AL/FL coast...this could turn out just horrible if the GDFL pans out. And with more models jumping on board it seems that a landfall in that area should something develop is almost inevitable.

[ROCK]

right smack dab over the oil spill more or less....talk about jacked up run....I still think the non-existant center is more like 14N 71W though....that mid level circulation is dissipating...

man, surge multipiers in the NGOM are horrible and with a major? we are talking 12ft surge and more driving oil up into peoples homes...

[Jagno]

[quote="Ivanhater"]GFDL has a major hurricane in the gulf...115 knots

Holy Crap! The saddest part of this scenario is that under the current situation in the Gulf right now this system would send oil and toxins far and wide causing widespread destruction way beyond the reach of the actual hurricane. What a scary way to usher in the first day of Summer!

[ROCK]

Bless the oil stricken LA/MS/AL/FL coast...this could turn out just horrible if the GDFL pans out. And with more models jumping on board it seems that a landfall in that area should something develop is almost inevitable.

Not really inevitable...still need model consistency....however the EURO showed a similar track a few runs ago....stay up 30 more minutes and a new EURO will be running.

since IVAN is up so late I better hang with him in case he chokes on his redbull....

[Ivanhater]

Lol Rock. My sleep schedule is all jacked right now. I have a feeling we are gonna have many long nights this year, considering it's still only June.

[ROCK]

Dont even look at the HWRF......unless you want a good laugh...

[Ivanhater]

Dont even look at the HWRF......unless you want a good laugh...

Wow,

[Nederlander]

Dont even look at the HWRF......unless you want a good laugh...

already looked at it lol.. it apparently tracks WNW/NW then hits a wall and heads straight north over western cuba..

[Aric Dunn]

Thats a interesting run of the gfdl and rather scary.. but its still way way to early ..

[ROCK]

its obvious the HWRF is having some feedback issues...

[Nederlander]

yeah the timing and strength of that ridge is going to determine a lot.. typical steering element.. personally i am hoping for a strong ridge over the northern gulf, sending this system to an unpopulated part of mexico and staying away from problems in the gulf..

[ROCK]

yeah the timing and strength of that ridge is going to determine a lot.. typical steering element.. personally i am hoping for a strong ridge over the northern gulf, sending this system to an unpopulated part of mexico and staying away from problems in the gulf..

that would be ideal of course....

BTW- we are neighbors...not many people from Pearland on here except the immortal AFM.. ..havent seen him around lately...

[Ivanhater]

Geez, finally found the long range canadian

[ROCK]

its not really funny but the guy earlier was talking about the climo model....GFDL and CMC seem to agree with it.....

[Ivanhater]

its not really funny but the guy earlier was talking about the climo model....GFDL and CMC seem to agree with it.....

True Rock, but it's kind of a good feeling being in the hot zone this far out. IMO, Texas to Florida has an equal chance at this point

[Ivanhater]

SHIPS still very bullish

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0617 UTC TUE JUN 22 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100622 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100622 0600 100622 1800 100623 0600 100623 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 71.2W 15.8N 73.5W 16.4N 75.8W 17.2N 78.2W
BAMD 15.0N 71.2W 15.7N 73.2W 16.3N 75.1W 16.8N 76.9W
BAMM 15.0N 71.2W 15.7N 73.4W 16.3N 75.5W 17.0N 77.7W
LBAR 15.0N 71.2W 15.9N 73.4W 16.9N 75.7W 17.8N 78.0W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100624 0600 100625 0600 100626 0600 100627 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.7N 80.4W 18.6N 84.2W 19.2N 87.3W 20.0N 89.9W
BAMD 17.1N 78.5W 17.5N 81.7W 18.0N 84.8W 18.3N 87.8W
BAMM 17.4N 79.6W 18.0N 83.0W 18.6N 85.9W 19.3N 88.8W
LBAR 18.6N 80.2W 20.1N 84.2W 22.1N 87.2W 24.0N 88.8W
SHIP 52KTS 68KTS 82KTS 93KTS
DSHP 52KTS 68KTS 82KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 71.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 68.8W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 66.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Brent]

GFDL has a major hurricane in the gulf...115 knots

Wow, that's depressing.