ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

GFS

[randge]

Looks like this thing has Texas in its sights.

Thanks pro's and amateurs for your insights and analysis. I've been following this thing with you since it was a baby. This is a great site.

We pray that this storm stays the heck out of the British Petroleum mess.

[Ivanhater]

New version

[HouTXmetro]

so Upgraded GFS is Mexico?

[KWT]

Looks like the P.GFS bends back west at the end and into Mexico. I feel thats quite a good call and would be what I personally think will be likely to occur.

[Ivanhater]

Sits in the BOC for days

[LaBreeze]

Looks like the P.GFS bends back west at the end and into Mexico. I feel thats quite a good call and would be what I personally think will be likely to occur.

Due to the incoming front from the NW?

[KWT]

Looks like it thinks the upper high doesn't quite have the strength to shuff it into Mexico...that would be an interesting solution as it would give the system time to strengthen.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

New version of the GFS near Brownsville

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_180l.gif

[Ivanhater]

Sliding north

[Ivanhater]

New version of the GFS near Brownsville

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_180l.gif

Complex situation to get there....due north after steering currents collapse

[bigdan33]

This is a crazy question why does gfs on one say fllorida panhandle and what does new gfs mean and where do I find that model.
Thanks Dan

[South Texas Storms]

does the nhc official track of TD 1 sound plausible to yall?

[wxman22]

It brings it up the Texas coast.........

[lonelymike]

Those dynamic models are nearly all based off the GFS...which has a big habit of digging upper troughs too far south. The ECM can sometimes go the other way IMO...but thats why people are discounting the GFS model solutions for now because that really is an extreme trough for the time of year, possible but somewhat overdone IMO.

exactly...most all of them are based off the GFS...the TVCN is the difference between the GFDL and HWRF...we have a go for TS Alex before it hits the Yucatan....whats left will exit into the GOM then its a wait and see with this trof.....I will be looking at hints in the NE on how big and bad this trof is from the local NWS AFD's.....

I understand what my friend Ivanhater is saying and he makes some valid points but it seems like the Euro has done well the past few years with the tropics whereas the GFS..well we all know that story. Hopefully the new operational GFS will work out a lot of those kinks and become more reliable. Until then like most of the pro mets on this board I'm a "Euro" man

[South Texas Storms]

It brings it up the Texas coast.........

wxman22, that would be the perfect scenario for me here in san antonio to get maybe hurricane force winds?

[wxman22]

No it would have to be a Strong Hurricane to bring San Antonio Hurricane winds which doesn't look likely right now

But it does bring some heavy rains into Southeast Texas FWIW

[KFDM Meteorologist]

New version of the GFS near Brownsville

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_180l.gif

Complex situation to get there....due north after steering currents collapse

Still think stays south! High to the north.

[South Texas Storms]

New version of the GFS near Brownsville

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_180l.gif

Complex situation to get there....due north after steering currents collapse

Still think stays south! High to the north.

IMO i personally think this is what will happen. Do you agree with me KFDM Met.?

[KWT]

Very interesting call from the GFS, the upper high just takes it far enough west to get it inland and then slides it up northwards, obviously if it doesn;t get far enough west...well then we all know what could happen with TD1...