ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION
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So it stays a TD at 11 p.m. Interesting... I would have thought Alex would be here with 40 mph winds. Hmm...
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- Comanche
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION
at least they slightly adjusted the track left, should be many more left shifts to come.
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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION
MAJOR slowdown at the end. I wonder if they think the steering currents collapse like some of the models are showing
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Michael
Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION
Good evening everyone, Ok I see the models have shifted to right on Belize border, I'm down in Southern Belize , Placencia area .......we're supposed to be having a lobster festival starting today for this weekend which looks to be totally scuppered with TS warning in effect, and the south shift on models is making me have Iris de ja vous, She was supposed to be Mexico, then Belize North landing and through the day shifted more and more South until she ended up on my doorstep. Just currious what the pro mets think likely hood of this system shifting south allot more. This is so weird for June, wouldn't normally expect anything to affect Belize till Sept/Oct. We also have the added problem what the TS 2 years ago which landed in Chetumal area Mexico created flash floods which washed out the main bride link from south to North Belize which after 2 years has still not been replaced with new bridge and we have a temporary causeway - low level crossing which floods everytime we get some heavy rain. Believe me Belize does not need ANY kind of storm system.
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Sean and Ivan..good to see you back here again this year. I feel like I know you guys personally from all of these years "hurricane chasing". This year especially sucks for us (and the one guy in Biloxi that I follow on here, but I can't remember his name) because of the oil already affecting our homesteads!
I agree with the models for the most part..I think this is a Brownsville or south of Brownsville storm (which is good because it should not impact the oil). Hopefully it will not get any further into the gulf..then we could see some impacts from the oil and the storm. Maybe we will get lucky this year, since we have had enough of the "sticky situations" (literally) to last us a while. All the best to you guys!
I agree with the models for the most part..I think this is a Brownsville or south of Brownsville storm (which is good because it should not impact the oil). Hopefully it will not get any further into the gulf..then we could see some impacts from the oil and the storm. Maybe we will get lucky this year, since we have had enough of the "sticky situations" (literally) to last us a while. All the best to you guys!
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION
Ivanhater wrote:MAJOR slowdown at the end. I wonder if they think the steering currents collapse like some of the models are showing
My interpretation of the last sentence of the discussion
THE FORECAST SPEED IS VERY SLOW BY DAY 5
GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME.
is that the "slowdown" is due to uncertainty in the forecast; not due to forecast meteorological conditions.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION
BZSTORM.we have a thread dedicated for the members who live in the Caribbean and Central America at the USA & Caribbean Weather forum,where you can post observations from where you are.Also,there is a web cam from Belize at the first post of the thread.The link to it is below.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- deltadog03
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Sounds like they slow it down just cuz there not sure where its going to go...IF** that is the case, I don't like that one bit. I think the reason for the GFDL being to the right is because of the speed. So, its going to depend largely on speed...If it sits down there int he GOM then it could take off to the races with regards to intensity.
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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION
clfenwi wrote:Ivanhater wrote:MAJOR slowdown at the end. I wonder if they think the steering currents collapse like some of the models are showing
My interpretation of the last sentence of the discussion
THE FORECAST SPEED IS VERY SLOW BY DAY 5
GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME.
is that the "slowdown" is due to uncertainty in the forecast; not due to forecast meteorological conditions.
Yeah, I just saw that. Interesting though that they don't want to call it. The gfs did have a stall scenario earlier.
Good to see you back sms. I agree, we have had enough heartbreak with the oil, everything is heightened this year.
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Michael
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION
clfenwi wrote:Ivanhater wrote:MAJOR slowdown at the end. I wonder if they think the steering currents collapse like some of the models are showing
My interpretation of the last sentence of the discussion
THE FORECAST SPEED IS VERY SLOW BY DAY 5
GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME.
is that the "slowdown" is due to uncertainty in the forecast; not due to forecast meteorological conditions.
It's slow but note the (new) GFS and ECMWF push it through Mexico. So the steering currents may be slow but may be enough to bring it out of the GOM (hopefully).
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION
It looks like its either weakening on it southern side due to land interaction or we could get a reformation of the center? Anybody?
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Re:
deltadog03 wrote:Sounds like they slow it down just cuz there not sure where its going to go...IF** that is the case, I don't like that one bit. I think the reason for the GFDL being to the right is because of the speed. So, its going to depend largely on speed...If it sits down there int he GOM then it could take off to the races with regards to intensity.
That's exactly why they slowed it down. Its not what they actually think will happen...its just that they don't know what will happen. And I agree...I don't like it. I don't like the whole split the difference...consensus...don't make a commitment style of forecasting.
I understand their constraints...but it bugs me as a forecaster when you actually put out a forecast that you know won't verify...but you would rather be half wrong all the time...than fully wrong half the time.
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- deltadog03
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- HouTXmetro
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION
deltadog03 wrote:Still don't count out the GFDL...The center could be trying to reform a bit to the NE under that new bursts going up. GFDL is still unlikely, but can't count it out just yet.
Do you really think that reformation is occurring?
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- Ivanhater
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Re:
deltadog03 wrote:Still don't count out the GFDL...The center could be trying to reform a bit to the NE under that new bursts going up. GFDL is still unlikely, but can't count it out just yet.
Always an option with these type of systems when going over the Yucatan, i.e Cindy. The center was elongated this afternoon and systems do like to reform when going over the Yucatan. Just something to look out for and what makes tropical systems interesting.
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Michael
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Re: Re:
I agree bud...BTW how you been doing? I HATE that logic of forecasting. I guess with me is, that I will try to forecast what I think will happen and if I am wrong in the end, its because I was just wrong, but I gave my true feelings. I don't like mets who split the difference, because they are unsure and still score the win because they play that card. Regardless, I kinda want to see this come into N MEX so I might be able to get a bit of the moisture up this way.
Air Force Met wrote:deltadog03 wrote:Sounds like they slow it down just cuz there not sure where its going to go...IF** that is the case, I don't like that one bit. I think the reason for the GFDL being to the right is because of the speed. So, its going to depend largely on speed...If it sits down there int he GOM then it could take off to the races with regards to intensity.
That's exactly why they slowed it down. Its not what they actually think will happen...its just that they don't know what will happen. And I agree...I don't like it. I don't like the whole split the difference...consensus...don't make a commitment style of forecasting.
I understand their constraints...but it bugs me as a forecaster when you actually put out a forecast that you know won't verify...but you would rather be half wrong all the time...than fully wrong half the time.
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION
HouTXmetro wrote:deltadog03 wrote:Still don't count out the GFDL...The center could be trying to reform a bit to the NE under that new bursts going up. GFDL is still unlikely, but can't count it out just yet.
Do you really think that reformation is occurring?
Even with a reformation of the center, will that really matter? The GFDL is the only reliable model now that curves it north into the Northern GOM. Every other model brings it into Mexico a few hundred miles south of Southern-most Texas. I don't think the GFDL is going to verify to be honest. Right now the NHC appears to have a track that is quite a bit right of the model consensus so could be a couple of leftward adjustments adhead of the next advisories.
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION
Out of curiosity, I ran a search of discussions, looking for other examples of the "slow down the storm at the end of the forecast period due to uncertainty" forecasts. May be unrepresentative because he uses the same wording (and others may word it differently and therefore it wouldn't be picked up in a Google search, necessarily), but I found a bunch of examples from discussions/forecasts by Brennan.
(edited to fix disappearing links)
Not a Brennan exclusive, however. Here's a Stewart forecast with similar tactics, for example.
I don't intend this to pick on Brennan, but just to point out the past situations that made me think the way I did when I wrote my previous comment.
(edited to fix disappearing links)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/al07/al072006.discus.010.shtmlTHE GFS SLOWS GORDON AT DAYS 3 AND 4
BEFORE MOVING IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS
SHOWS A MORE RAPID MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 5. TO
COMPLICATE THINGS FURTHER...THE GFDL STALLS GORDON AND SHOWS ALMOST
NO MOTION FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER FROM DAY 3 ONWARD...TRENDING TOWARD THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2009/ep ... shtml?textOVERALL...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AT THESE LATER TIME PERIODS...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. BY DAY 5...A
SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2009/ep14/ep142009.discus.002.shtmlBY DAY 5...A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS
INDICATED...DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.
Not a Brennan exclusive, however. Here's a Stewart forecast with similar tactics, for example.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2002/dis/al052002.discus.001.htmlGIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORWARD SPEED SLOW AND MOVE THE
CYCLONE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD SIMILAR TO THE AVN MODEL...BUT
FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFDL MODEL.
I don't intend this to pick on Brennan, but just to point out the past situations that made me think the way I did when I wrote my previous comment.
Last edited by clfenwi on Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- deltadog03
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION
gatorcane wrote:HouTXmetro wrote:deltadog03 wrote:Still don't count out the GFDL...The center could be trying to reform a bit to the NE under that new bursts going up. GFDL is still unlikely, but can't count it out just yet.
Do you really think that reformation is occurring?
Even with a reformation of the center, will that really matter? The GFDL is the only reliable model now that curves it north into the Northern GOM. Every other model brings it into Mexico a few hundred miles south of Southern-most Texas. I don't think the GFDL is going to verify to be honest. Right now the NHC appears to have a track that is quite a bit right of the model consensus so could be a couple of leftward adjustments adhead of the next advisories.
Actually it does..this from the latest disco
.SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE
WILL NOT GAIN ENOUGH LATITUDE TO INTERACT WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. ONLY THE GFDL MODEL AND THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A NORTHWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
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Michael
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