ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

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#1681 Postby wx247 » Fri Jun 25, 2010 9:47 pm

So it stays a TD at 11 p.m. Interesting... I would have thought Alex would be here with 40 mph winds. Hmm...
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION

#1682 Postby Comanche » Fri Jun 25, 2010 9:51 pm

at least they slightly adjusted the track left, should be many more left shifts to come.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION

#1683 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jun 25, 2010 9:52 pm

MAJOR slowdown at the end. I wonder if they think the steering currents collapse like some of the models are showing
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION

#1684 Postby BZSTORM » Fri Jun 25, 2010 9:58 pm

Good evening everyone, Ok I see the models have shifted to right on Belize border, I'm down in Southern Belize , Placencia area .......we're supposed to be having a lobster festival starting today for this weekend which looks to be totally scuppered with TS warning in effect, and the south shift on models is making me have Iris de ja vous, She was supposed to be Mexico, then Belize North landing and through the day shifted more and more South until she ended up on my doorstep. Just currious what the pro mets think likely hood of this system shifting south allot more. This is so weird for June, wouldn't normally expect anything to affect Belize till Sept/Oct. We also have the added problem what the TS 2 years ago which landed in Chetumal area Mexico created flash floods which washed out the main bride link from south to North Belize which after 2 years has still not been replaced with new bridge and we have a temporary causeway - low level crossing which floods everytime we get some heavy rain. Believe me Belize does not need ANY kind of storm system.
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#1685 Postby smw1981 » Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:00 pm

Sean and Ivan..good to see you back here again this year. I feel like I know you guys personally from all of these years "hurricane chasing". This year especially sucks for us (and the one guy in Biloxi that I follow on here, but I can't remember his name) because of the oil already affecting our homesteads!

I agree with the models for the most part..I think this is a Brownsville or south of Brownsville storm (which is good because it should not impact the oil). Hopefully it will not get any further into the gulf..then we could see some impacts from the oil and the storm. Maybe we will get lucky this year, since we have had enough of the "sticky situations" (literally) to last us a while. All the best to you guys!
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION

#1686 Postby clfenwi » Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:00 pm

Ivanhater wrote:MAJOR slowdown at the end. I wonder if they think the steering currents collapse like some of the models are showing


My interpretation of the last sentence of the discussion

THE FORECAST SPEED IS VERY SLOW BY DAY 5
GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME.


is that the "slowdown" is due to uncertainty in the forecast; not due to forecast meteorological conditions.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION

#1687 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:02 pm

BZSTORM.we have a thread dedicated for the members who live in the Caribbean and Central America at the USA & Caribbean Weather forum,where you can post observations from where you are.Also,there is a web cam from Belize at the first post of the thread.The link to it is below.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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#1688 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:04 pm

Sounds like they slow it down just cuz there not sure where its going to go...IF** that is the case, I don't like that one bit. I think the reason for the GFDL being to the right is because of the speed. So, its going to depend largely on speed...If it sits down there int he GOM then it could take off to the races with regards to intensity.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION

#1689 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:07 pm

clfenwi wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:MAJOR slowdown at the end. I wonder if they think the steering currents collapse like some of the models are showing


My interpretation of the last sentence of the discussion

THE FORECAST SPEED IS VERY SLOW BY DAY 5
GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME.


is that the "slowdown" is due to uncertainty in the forecast; not due to forecast meteorological conditions.



Yeah, I just saw that. Interesting though that they don't want to call it. The gfs did have a stall scenario earlier.

Good to see you back sms. I agree, we have had enough heartbreak with the oil, everything is heightened this year.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION

#1690 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:07 pm

clfenwi wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:MAJOR slowdown at the end. I wonder if they think the steering currents collapse like some of the models are showing


My interpretation of the last sentence of the discussion

THE FORECAST SPEED IS VERY SLOW BY DAY 5
GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME.


is that the "slowdown" is due to uncertainty in the forecast; not due to forecast meteorological conditions.


It's slow but note the (new) GFS and ECMWF push it through Mexico. So the steering currents may be slow but may be enough to bring it out of the GOM (hopefully).
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION

#1691 Postby coreyl » Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:14 pm

It looks like its either weakening on it southern side due to land interaction or we could get a reformation of the center? Anybody?
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Re:

#1692 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:15 pm

deltadog03 wrote:Sounds like they slow it down just cuz there not sure where its going to go...IF** that is the case, I don't like that one bit. I think the reason for the GFDL being to the right is because of the speed. So, its going to depend largely on speed...If it sits down there int he GOM then it could take off to the races with regards to intensity.


That's exactly why they slowed it down. Its not what they actually think will happen...its just that they don't know what will happen. And I agree...I don't like it. I don't like the whole split the difference...consensus...don't make a commitment style of forecasting.

I understand their constraints...but it bugs me as a forecaster when you actually put out a forecast that you know won't verify...but you would rather be half wrong all the time...than fully wrong half the time.
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#1693 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:16 pm

Still don't count out the GFDL...The center could be trying to reform a bit to the NE under that new bursts going up. GFDL is still unlikely, but can't count it out just yet.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION

#1694 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:18 pm

deltadog03 wrote:Still don't count out the GFDL...The center could be trying to reform a bit to the NE under that new bursts going up. GFDL is still unlikely, but can't count it out just yet.


Do you really think that reformation is occurring?
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Re:

#1695 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:19 pm

deltadog03 wrote:Still don't count out the GFDL...The center could be trying to reform a bit to the NE under that new bursts going up. GFDL is still unlikely, but can't count it out just yet.


Always an option with these type of systems when going over the Yucatan, i.e Cindy. The center was elongated this afternoon and systems do like to reform when going over the Yucatan. Just something to look out for and what makes tropical systems interesting.
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Re: Re:

#1696 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:19 pm

I agree bud...BTW how you been doing? I HATE that logic of forecasting. I guess with me is, that I will try to forecast what I think will happen and if I am wrong in the end, its because I was just wrong, but I gave my true feelings. I don't like mets who split the difference, because they are unsure and still score the win because they play that card. Regardless, I kinda want to see this come into N MEX so I might be able to get a bit of the moisture up this way.



Air Force Met wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Sounds like they slow it down just cuz there not sure where its going to go...IF** that is the case, I don't like that one bit. I think the reason for the GFDL being to the right is because of the speed. So, its going to depend largely on speed...If it sits down there int he GOM then it could take off to the races with regards to intensity.


That's exactly why they slowed it down. Its not what they actually think will happen...its just that they don't know what will happen. And I agree...I don't like it. I don't like the whole split the difference...consensus...don't make a commitment style of forecasting.

I understand their constraints...but it bugs me as a forecaster when you actually put out a forecast that you know won't verify...but you would rather be half wrong all the time...than fully wrong half the time.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION

#1697 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:19 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Still don't count out the GFDL...The center could be trying to reform a bit to the NE under that new bursts going up. GFDL is still unlikely, but can't count it out just yet.


Do you really think that reformation is occurring?


Even with a reformation of the center, will that really matter? The GFDL is the only reliable model now that curves it north into the Northern GOM. Every other model brings it into Mexico a few hundred miles south of Southern-most Texas. I don't think the GFDL is going to verify to be honest. Right now the NHC appears to have a track that is quite a bit right of the model consensus so could be a couple of leftward adjustments adhead of the next advisories.
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION

#1698 Postby clfenwi » Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:20 pm

Out of curiosity, I ran a search of discussions, looking for other examples of the "slow down the storm at the end of the forecast period due to uncertainty" forecasts. May be unrepresentative because he uses the same wording (and others may word it differently and therefore it wouldn't be picked up in a Google search, necessarily), but I found a bunch of examples from discussions/forecasts by Brennan.

(edited to fix disappearing links)

THE GFS SLOWS GORDON AT DAYS 3 AND 4
BEFORE MOVING IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS
SHOWS A MORE RAPID MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 5. TO
COMPLICATE THINGS FURTHER...THE GFDL STALLS GORDON AND SHOWS ALMOST
NO MOTION FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER FROM DAY 3 ONWARD...TRENDING TOWARD THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/al07/al072006.discus.010.shtml

OVERALL...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AT THESE LATER TIME PERIODS...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. BY DAY 5...A
SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2009/ep ... shtml?text

BY DAY 5...A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS
INDICATED...DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2009/ep14/ep142009.discus.002.shtml

Not a Brennan exclusive, however. Here's a Stewart forecast with similar tactics, for example.

GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORWARD SPEED SLOW AND MOVE THE
CYCLONE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD SIMILAR TO THE AVN MODEL...BUT
FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFDL MODEL.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2002/dis/al052002.discus.001.html

I don't intend this to pick on Brennan, but just to point out the past situations that made me think the way I did when I wrote my previous comment.
Last edited by clfenwi on Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1699 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:21 pm

I don't wither gator, but I think the GFDL's thing is purely speed. Its obviously thinking that its going to make it far enough north to get caught in trof. Again, speed thing. Do I personally think its right?...hell no, but can't count it out yet.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE - DISCUSSION

#1700 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:23 pm

gatorcane wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Still don't count out the GFDL...The center could be trying to reform a bit to the NE under that new bursts going up. GFDL is still unlikely, but can't count it out just yet.


Do you really think that reformation is occurring?


Even with a reformation of the center, will that really matter? The GFDL is the only reliable model now that curves it north into the Northern GOM. Every other model brings it into Mexico a few hundred miles south of Southern-most Texas. I don't think the GFDL is going to verify to be honest. Right now the NHC appears to have a track that is quite a bit right of the model consensus so could be a couple of leftward adjustments adhead of the next advisories.


Actually it does..this from the latest disco

.SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE
WILL NOT GAIN ENOUGH LATITUDE TO INTERACT WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. ONLY THE GFDL MODEL AND THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A NORTHWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
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