ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[KWT]

I think its quite likely the GFS is out to lunch, esp given Alex is bombing, I see no real reason why a chunk of energy would dispatch unless the trough was to pick some of the outflow up and enhanced it into a system of its own.

[jinftl]

Looks like push towards a landfall in Mexico continues...only one model showing a landfall in the u.s.

[pepeavilenho]

+72 h

+90 h


+114 h.....

+132

[KWT]

Amazing how the models now barely show a lift to the north at all, that looks much more realisitic for late June though it has to be said, S.Mexico system looking like a good call...

Indeed who knows whether it even gets into the BoC?

[Windsong]

What is holding it down? I thought tropical systems always try to go poleward?

[jinftl]

From latest NHC Discussion:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE RELIABLE AND IT IS
ESTIMATED AT 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
TO KEEP ALEX ON A GENERAL WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED WHILE ALEX IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT. THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH BECAUSE MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH JOINING
THE RELIABLE ECMWF.

What is holding it down? I thought tropical systems always try to go poleward?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH BECAUSE MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH JOINING
THE RELIABLE ECMWF.

[Ivanhater]

FWIF, NAM is much further north than the 12z run

[deltadog03]

YUP!!! EURO dominated this track....another case of the GFS not being able to outforecast the synoptics over the EURO..

[Windsong]

Thank you. Don't know how I missed that. I have Fibro-Fog and some days I just don't get it.

[ROCK]

YUP!!! EURO dominated this track....another case of the GFS not being able to outforecast the synoptics over the EURO..

Never go against the EURO is my motto....yeah I am a hugger until I see it fall on its face....


in some respect, the GFS did bury this in the MX for quite some time....

[AJC3]

Does anyone buy into what the GFS is trying to do along the northern gulf coast in 72 hrs? It breaks off a piece of energy from Alex and ramps up some vorticity south of NO - then develops another low pressure which meanders east along the northern gulf coast. I noticed on their runs, both GFDL and HWRF also develop this northern gulf coast low. Checked 200 mb winds and the low doesn't appear to be cold core as a large upper air high is forecast to dominate the entire GOM over the next 3-5 days. Is the GFS out to lunch or is there a possible home grown system in the works?

My money is on convective feedback.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

ONCE a system develops EURO is the best!!!!!!!!!!! Even before at least the EURO showed something, the GFS showed nothing.

[txagwxman]

ONCE a system develops EURO is the best!!!!!!!!!!! Even before at least the EURO showed something, the GFS showed nothing.

ECMWF was also upgraded to higher resolution this spring. Last year it beat NHC's forecast tracks.

They need to run the GFDL/HWRF off of the ECMWF grids and not the GFS.

[txagwxman]

FWIF, NAM is much further north than the 12z run

NAM---ignore.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

ONCE a system develops EURO is the best!!!!!!!!!!! Even before at least the EURO showed something, the GFS showed nothing.

ECMWF was also upgraded to higher resolution this spring. Last year it beat NHC's forecast tracks.

They need to run the GFDL/HWRF off of the ECMWF grids and not the GFS.

I AGREE!

[txagwxman]

ONCE a system develops EURO is the best!!!!!!!!!!! Even before at least the EURO showed something, the GFS showed nothing.

ECMWF was also upgraded to higher resolution this spring. Last year it beat NHC's forecast tracks.

They need to run the GFDL/HWRF off of the ECMWF grids and not the GFS.

I AGREE!

I talked to NHC personnel at conferences before and told them this...way back in the early 2000s.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

What good that did.

[KWT]

Oh without a doubt the ECM is the bes.t..but it does have certain weaknesses I've noticed in certain evolutionary patterns, but then again as do all models, we've seen one of the GFS biggest bug bear in the last few days, overdoing upper troughs...

[Ntxwx]

Im just not convinced this will be that far south. My guess is that landfall will be around Brownsville area...