ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

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KWT
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#961 Postby KWT » Sat Jun 26, 2010 2:58 pm

I think its quite likely the GFS is out to lunch, esp given Alex is bombing, I see no real reason why a chunk of energy would dispatch unless the trough was to pick some of the outflow up and enhanced it into a system of its own.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#962 Postby jinftl » Sat Jun 26, 2010 3:18 pm

Looks like push towards a landfall in Mexico continues...only one model showing a landfall in the u.s.

Image
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#963 Postby pepeavilenho » Sat Jun 26, 2010 3:18 pm

+72 h
Image
+90 h
Image

+114 h.....
Image
+132
Image
:cold:
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#964 Postby KWT » Sat Jun 26, 2010 3:27 pm

Amazing how the models now barely show a lift to the north at all, that looks much more realisitic for late June though it has to be said, S.Mexico system looking like a good call...

Indeed who knows whether it even gets into the BoC?
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#965 Postby Windsong » Sat Jun 26, 2010 3:51 pm

What is holding it down? I thought tropical systems always try to go poleward?
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#966 Postby jinftl » Sat Jun 26, 2010 3:54 pm

From latest NHC Discussion:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE RELIABLE AND IT IS
ESTIMATED AT 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
TO KEEP ALEX ON A GENERAL WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED WHILE ALEX IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT. THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH BECAUSE MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH JOINING
THE RELIABLE ECMWF.



Windsong wrote:What is holding it down? I thought tropical systems always try to go poleward?
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#967 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sat Jun 26, 2010 3:57 pm

THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH BECAUSE MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH JOINING
THE RELIABLE ECMWF.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#968 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jun 26, 2010 4:09 pm

FWIF, NAM is much further north than the 12z run

Image
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#969 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Jun 26, 2010 4:09 pm

YUP!!! EURO dominated this track....another case of the GFS not being able to outforecast the synoptics over the EURO..
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#970 Postby Windsong » Sat Jun 26, 2010 4:09 pm

Thank you. Don't know how I missed that. I have Fibro-Fog and some days I just don't get it. :oops:
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#971 Postby ROCK » Sat Jun 26, 2010 4:13 pm

deltadog03 wrote:YUP!!! EURO dominated this track....another case of the GFS not being able to outforecast the synoptics over the EURO..



Never go against the EURO is my motto....yeah I am a hugger until I see it fall on its face.... :lol:


in some respect, the GFS did bury this in the MX for quite some time....
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#972 Postby AJC3 » Sat Jun 26, 2010 4:17 pm

ronjon wrote:Does anyone buy into what the GFS is trying to do along the northern gulf coast in 72 hrs? It breaks off a piece of energy from Alex and ramps up some vorticity south of NO - then develops another low pressure which meanders east along the northern gulf coast. I noticed on their runs, both GFDL and HWRF also develop this northern gulf coast low. Checked 200 mb winds and the low doesn't appear to be cold core as a large upper air high is forecast to dominate the entire GOM over the next 3-5 days. Is the GFS out to lunch or is there a possible home grown system in the works?



My money is on convective feedback.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#973 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sat Jun 26, 2010 4:18 pm

ONCE a system develops EURO is the best!!!!!!!!!!! Even before at least the EURO showed something, the GFS showed nothing.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#974 Postby txagwxman » Sat Jun 26, 2010 4:26 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:ONCE a system develops EURO is the best!!!!!!!!!!! Even before at least the EURO showed something, the GFS showed nothing.

ECMWF was also upgraded to higher resolution this spring. Last year it beat NHC's forecast tracks.

They need to run the GFDL/HWRF off of the ECMWF grids and not the GFS.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#975 Postby txagwxman » Sat Jun 26, 2010 4:27 pm

Ivanhater wrote:FWIF, NAM is much further north than the 12z run

Image

NAM---ignore.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#976 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sat Jun 26, 2010 4:28 pm

txagwxman wrote:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:ONCE a system develops EURO is the best!!!!!!!!!!! Even before at least the EURO showed something, the GFS showed nothing.

ECMWF was also upgraded to higher resolution this spring. Last year it beat NHC's forecast tracks.

They need to run the GFDL/HWRF off of the ECMWF grids and not the GFS.
I AGREE!
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#977 Postby txagwxman » Sat Jun 26, 2010 4:29 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:
txagwxman wrote:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:ONCE a system develops EURO is the best!!!!!!!!!!! Even before at least the EURO showed something, the GFS showed nothing.

ECMWF was also upgraded to higher resolution this spring. Last year it beat NHC's forecast tracks.

They need to run the GFDL/HWRF off of the ECMWF grids and not the GFS.
I AGREE!

I talked to NHC personnel at conferences before and told them this...way back in the early 2000s.
Last edited by txagwxman on Sat Jun 26, 2010 4:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#978 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sat Jun 26, 2010 4:29 pm

:D What good that did.
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#979 Postby KWT » Sat Jun 26, 2010 4:34 pm

Oh without a doubt the ECM is the bes.t..but it does have certain weaknesses I've noticed in certain evolutionary patterns, but then again as do all models, we've seen one of the GFS biggest bug bear in the last few days, overdoing upper troughs...
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#980 Postby Ntxwx » Sat Jun 26, 2010 4:44 pm

Im just not convinced this will be that far south. My guess is that landfall will be around Brownsville area...
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