ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#1301 Postby rockyman » Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:08 am

Old GFS--Alex creeping west toward coast between 72 and 96 hours
0 likes   

paintplaye
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 380
Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Re:

#1302 Postby paintplaye » Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:08 am

Ikester wrote:
rockyman wrote:On the old GFS, the ridge builds back in between 48 and 72 hours...pushing Alex back to the west


It looks like that's what this run is going to try and do. Anybody else see a shift to the left this run?


Stalls it then moves it a little north. Looks like a mid Texas coast hit.
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1303 Postby Portastorm » Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:09 am

Actually, 12z GFS stalls Alex about 80-100 miles east of Brownsville through 96 hours. Interesting. Probably would mean copious rains for SE Texas/La.
0 likes   

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#1304 Postby rockyman » Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:09 am

GFS--Ridge moves east and Alex starts moving north again..
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricane Andrew
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1891
Age: 26
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
Location: KS

#1305 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:11 am

Can i have a link to the GFS please?
0 likes   

The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd

Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)

"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War

paintplaye
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 380
Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:25 pm

Re:

#1306 Postby paintplaye » Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:12 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:Can i have a link to the GFS please?



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/model_l.shtml
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1307 Postby Portastorm » Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:13 am

Wow ... crazy run. After stalling Alex for a day and a half ... looks to rebuild the ridge enough to force Alex into the Corpus area. Sheesh ... hope that doesn't pan out.
0 likes   

paintplaye
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 380
Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1308 Postby paintplaye » Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:13 am

Galveston:

Image
0 likes   

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#1309 Postby rockyman » Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:13 am

GFS--still creeping northward toward middle TX coast in 5 days!
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricane Andrew
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1891
Age: 26
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
Location: KS

Re: Re:

#1310 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:13 am

paintplaye wrote:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:Can i have a link to the GFS please?



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/model_l.shtml

Thanks. Very interesting, especaily the stalling.
0 likes   

The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd

Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)

"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11161
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1311 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:14 am

Houston

Image
0 likes   
Michael

paintplaye
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 380
Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:25 pm

Re:

#1312 Postby paintplaye » Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:14 am

rockyman wrote:GFS--still creeping northward toward middle TX coast in 5 days!



If this happens the amount of rain produced would be unheard of. Also the intensity would rocket. Don't think it will happen though.
0 likes   

paintplaye
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 380
Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:25 pm

#1313 Postby paintplaye » Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:16 am

Too close for comfort:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1314 Postby Portastorm » Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:19 am

Oops ... Corpus-schmorpus ... 12z GFS says "watch me do a Rita."
0 likes   

Ikester
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 361
Age: 39
Joined: Mon Jun 21, 2010 5:00 pm
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1315 Postby Ikester » Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:23 am

Portastorm wrote:Oops ... Corpus-schmorpus ... 12z GFS says "watch me do a Rita."


Are you referring to the largest evacuation in US history (~3 million left Houston), the 100 people who died during the evacuation or the millions in preparation? It is so important for us (weather people) to figure this out. Thankfully, the gfs is the only model that shows this. Now if the dynamical models were split even steven, then I'd throw my hands up.
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1316 Postby Portastorm » Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:27 am

Ikester wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Oops ... Corpus-schmorpus ... 12z GFS says "watch me do a Rita."


Are you referring to the largest evacuation in US history (~3 million left Houston), the 100 people who died during the evacuation or the millions in preparation? It is so important for us (weather people) to figure this out. Thankfully, the gfs is the only model that shows this. Now if the dynamical models were split even steven, then I'd throw my hands up.


Thankfully is right. As you know, SE Texas is still painfully recovering from Rita and Ike. A track like the 12z GFS suggests would be downright horrific for a lot of good folks. Still, I don't like seeing it ... even on a GFS run.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#1317 Postby KWT » Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:27 am

12z GFS looks very similar to many o the 06z GFS ensemble members, they go WNW for 6hrs, then NW/NNW then a brief bend back westwards followed by the ridge weakening and the system coming back northwards again towards Texas...

Thats the main difference, the ECM and a few other models keep the upper ridge strong enough.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#1318 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:39 am

I think all it will take is for the 12Z run of the ECMWF to also show Houston/Galveston hit, like the GFS and that certainly may be enough for a significant adjustment in NHC track. But if that ECMWF along with the majority of the other models keep the ridge strong and Alex into Mexico, don't look for much of an adjustment. 12Z ECMWF won't be running for a few more hours though.
0 likes   

paintplaye
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 380
Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:25 pm

Re:

#1319 Postby paintplaye » Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:40 am

gatorcane wrote:I think all it will take is for the 12Z run of the ECMWF to also show Houston/Galveston hit, like the GFS and that certainly may be enough for a significant adjustment in NHC track. But if that ECMWF along with the majority of the other models keep the ridge strong and Alex into Mexico, don't look for much of an adjustment. 12Z ECMWF won't be running for a few more hours though.


100% agree.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11161
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1320 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:42 am

12z Canadian....SW LOUISIANA

Image
0 likes   
Michael


Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests