ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1421 Postby ROCK » Sun Jun 27, 2010 3:11 pm

taking a page from IVAN's book of posting the NAM..... :lol: never thought I would be doing that for the tropics.... :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1422 Postby Vortex » Sun Jun 27, 2010 3:11 pm

The last 3-5 hours show a trajectory clearly off to the NW.
0 likes   

User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#1423 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Jun 27, 2010 3:13 pm

There is a clear weakness showing on the NAM...Again.......depends on speed of how fast Alex wants to move.
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re:

#1424 Postby ROCK » Sun Jun 27, 2010 3:15 pm

deltadog03 wrote:There is a clear weakness showing on the NAM...Again.......depends on speed of how fast Alex wants to move.



yes there is and that is what is distressing....I am not even looking at Alex..its the NAMs play on the ridge that is telling....
0 likes   

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re:

#1425 Postby ronjon » Sun Jun 27, 2010 3:20 pm

KWT wrote:Hmmm a strange presentation from the NAM with it seemingly trying to possibly develop something NE of the system in that convective stuff...looks like its totally out of it, as you'd somewhat expect.


Actally KWT, this is what the GFS has been showing the last several runs. Not saying the GFS is not out to lunch too. We do have alot of convective activity in the northern gulf well detached from the circulation. The GFS forecasts vorticity to spark up from that activity and weaken the ridge.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#1426 Postby KWT » Sun Jun 27, 2010 3:23 pm

Yeah but it creates it at the expense of Alex, thats the problem Ronjon, also takes Alex nearly NNE from the looks of things in the next 30hrs, which is very unlikely. The actual development of convection in the Gulf would make a certain amount of sense if the track of Alex does go to the north.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
Cape Verde
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 564
Age: 69
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:53 pm
Location: Houston area

#1427 Postby Cape Verde » Sun Jun 27, 2010 3:23 pm

There are over 3,000 workers on various vessels and rigs at the Macondo oil spill site that are going to find the vast potential swing in path and especially the timing to be a bit alarming.

From a safe N. Mexico storm to possibly being a SE Texas storm is a radical difference. Late last week, they were saying 120 hours before Gale force winds would be the trigger for the Coast Guard. Under some of these models they don't even have that right now.

Am I misreading this?
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1428 Postby ROCK » Sun Jun 27, 2010 3:25 pm

NAM at 42hr

Image
0 likes   

sphelps8681
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 785
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:37 pm
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow

Re: Re:

#1429 Postby sphelps8681 » Sun Jun 27, 2010 3:27 pm

ronjon wrote:
KWT wrote:Hmmm a strange presentation from the NAM with it seemingly trying to possibly develop something NE of the system in that convective stuff...looks like its totally out of it, as you'd somewhat expect.


Actally KWT, this is what the GFS has been showing the last several runs. Not saying the GFS is not out to lunch too. We do have alot of convective activity in the northern gulf well detached from the circulation. The GFS forecasts vorticity to spark up from that activity and weaken the ridge.



I live in SE Texas and we are getting activity (thunderstorms) now. Not sure if this is related to Alex.
0 likes   

SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re:

#1430 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sun Jun 27, 2010 3:28 pm

Cape Verde wrote:There are over 3,000 workers on various vessels and rigs at the Macondo oil spill site that are going to find the vast potential swing in path and especially the timing to be a bit alarming.

From a safe N. Mexico storm to possibly being a SE Texas storm is a radical difference. Late last week, they were saying 120 hours before Gale force winds would be the trigger for the Coast Guard. Under some of these models they don't even have that right now.

Am I misreading this?



I was wondering about this also. I don't think they will get their 120 hours lead time, if this ends up pulling north, unless of course it's movements are very slow. Very stormy in the northern gulf as it is, certainly wouldn't make it ANY easier to do what they need to do in order to close up shop and move to safety.
0 likes   

Nederlander
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1250
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:28 pm
Location: Conroe, TX

Re:

#1431 Postby Nederlander » Sun Jun 27, 2010 3:28 pm

Cape Verde wrote:There are over 3,000 workers on various vessels and rigs at the Macondo oil spill site that are going to find the vast potential swing in path and especially the timing to be a bit alarming.

From a safe N. Mexico storm to possibly being a SE Texas storm is a radical difference. Late last week, they were saying 120 hours before Gale force winds would be the trigger for the Coast Guard. Under some of these models they don't even have that right now.

Am I misreading this?

This is a very tricky situation to be in for everyone involved.. especially the NHC.. To me, the NHC is too far south. They are putting a lot of stock into the Euro now.. This is a very difficult system to forecast.. but to answer your question, IF Alex were to track that far east.. i would imagine its more than 120 hours out from now..
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1432 Postby ROCK » Sun Jun 27, 2010 3:29 pm

54hr ridge building back in...

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1433 Postby ROCK » Sun Jun 27, 2010 3:30 pm

the NAM is so jacked up when it comes to the tropics....it sits Alex in a spin for 2 days... :lol:
0 likes   

Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1434 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Jun 27, 2010 3:33 pm

The EURO will set you free.
0 likes   

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#1435 Postby rockyman » Sun Jun 27, 2010 3:34 pm

Jeff Masters just posted this:

Morris Bender of the GFDL group has just provided me the track forecast from an improved experimental version of the GFDL that shows landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston.

Jeff Masters
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1436 Postby ROCK » Sun Jun 27, 2010 3:34 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:The EURO will set you free.


yes I know about the EURO.. :lol:

still is my model of choice but cannot deny these northern models any longer...
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#1437 Postby KWT » Sun Jun 27, 2010 3:35 pm

I'd imagine the NHC forecast is a perfect down the middle track between the models, too much uncertainty to go one way or the other, esp with two camps. That being said even the southerly models have shifted northwards compared to thier own previous forecast.

Coniditions aloft look good according to the models, looking more likely to go cat-2 if it shape itself up quickly enough.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re:

#1438 Postby ROCK » Sun Jun 27, 2010 3:36 pm

rockyman wrote:Jeff Masters just posted this:

Morris Bender of the GFDL group has just provided me the track forecast from an improved experimental version of the GFDL that shows landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston.

Jeff Masters



well that is not good news now is it.....
0 likes   

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4227
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1439 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Jun 27, 2010 3:36 pm

do you guys think that alex will pass far enough east of me that we dont get any rain from him here in SA?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145355
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1440 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 27, 2010 3:38 pm

From 4 PM CDT discussion about the models.


THE INITIAL MOTION OF ALEX IS A LITTLE SLOWER...WITH A 12-HR AVERAGE
YIELDING AN ESTIMATE OF 300/8. THE PIVOTAL QUESTION FOR THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HINGE
ON THE STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THE MODELS THAT SHOW A WEAKER RIDGE...SUCH AS THE CMC/GFS/HWRF...
ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
NORTH AND APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST IN SEVERAL DAYS.
OTHER MODELS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS...HAVE A STRONGER
RIDGE AND KEEP ALEX MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST INTO
MEXICO. OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE. SINCE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD...THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS THOUGHT TO BE OF BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.



0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests