ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[KWT]

Yes..southern on this one

Will probably see a shift south of the GFDL...interesting to note the system is looking very sheared right now, maybe the models were right not to go overboard in terms of strengthening.

[Tireman4]

The entire Texas coastline is in play with this slow movement....everyone should at least be getting preparations made....preparedness not panic I say...my personal thoughts are landfall as a large Cat 4 between Corpus and Galeveston....

This statement has not been endorsed by any meteorological service and is simply my opinion!!!

Wow ... bold prediction to say the least!

No offense fellow Austinite ... but I hope your prediction is incorrect.

bold, and a bit irresponsible.

Wow, goodness. That took guts. Many of the pro mets on here are not willing to go that far. I know I have no clue.

[PTrackerLA]

Yes..southern on this one

Will probably see a shift south of the GFDL...interesting to note the system is looking very sheared right now, maybe the models were right not to go overboard in terms of strengthening.

The circulation is still very vigorous but the convection has really fallen apart over the core this morning. Like you said maybe the GFDL and HWRF are right in their depiction of Alex not reaching hurricane status, although I'd still be rather surprised if it didn't.

[txagwxman]

Wow ... bold prediction to say the least!

No offense fellow Austinite ... but I hope your prediction is incorrect.[/quote]

bold, and a bit irresponsible.[/quote]


Wow, goodness. That took guts. Many of the pro mets on here are not willing to go that far. I know I have no clue.[/quote]
If there is no shear then it is possible...but something inhibiting the latest GFS from strengthening Alex---probably wind shear...further west now, more like UKMET/ECMWF.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

edit: dulplicate

Looks like the GFS is now on board with a southern venture.

Poor GFS. It finally woke up!

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs 84h

[clfenwi]

As the graphic that Wx_Warrior posted shows, 12Z operational GFS, starting from 24h out onward is a good deal to the left (south) of the 00Z run.

[KWT]

Will be interesting to watch what happens because I'm starting to think based on the WV the earlier more northerly runs may have been closer to the mark...though for now you can't ignore the models finally coming into better agreement of a MX/TX landfall.

Note the GFS really slows the system inland, things get slack at 72-96hrs according to the models...IF the system moves slower than progged then things get interesting...

[TexasF6]

@texboxsox- (not porta)-Irresponsible? A prediction is just that a prediction. Its my half a shilling. Take it or leave it. I even said I hope I am wrong. As someone who is not a pro-met but has a few met classes at the college level under his belt, along with the knowledge that GOM storms are highly unpredictbale given history, Katrina, Claudette, Ike, Wilma, OPAL, Beluah, Carla, my point is anything is possible when these conditions favor the storm. Slow movement in th GOM is dangerous.....Right now he looks a mess. Later he won't.

[Portastorm]

@texboxsox- (not porta)-Irresponsible? A prediction is just that a prediction. Its my half a shilling. Take it or leave it. I even said I hope I am wrong. As someone who is not a pro-met but has a few met classes at the college level under his belt, along with the knowledge that GOM storms are highly unpredictbale given history, Katrina, Claudette, Ike, Wilma, OPAL, Beluah, Carla, my point is anything is possible when these conditions favor the storm. Slow movement in th GOM is dangerous.....Right now he looks a mess. Later he won't.

Go back and look at the thread. I'm not the one who said "irresponsible."

[antonlsu]

I think a cat 4 is pushing it.... I could possibly see a weak to moderate cat 3.. And iv seen the damage a weak cat 3 can do to your house, fill your room with fish whenever you come back home... Wouldnt want to even picture a cat 4..

[KWT]

I'd be surprised if it got to major, conditions aloft may well become good enough though for a strengthening landfalling system though IMO, most of the models though aren't keen on going much above 65-70kts, I can only imagine the shear doesn't ease off enough to go much above that, which makes sense.

[clfenwi]

12Z NOGAPS is a fair bit quicker, and maybe slightly right/north on landfall point compared to 00Z.



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[txagwxman]

Canadian south now too.

[clfenwi]

12Z CMC comes in a bit to the left/south of the 00Z



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[txagwxman]

ECMWF/UKMET will be the same too.

[RainWind]

I'd be surprised if it got to major, conditions aloft may well become good enough though for a strengthening landfalling system though IMO, most of the models though aren't keen on going much above 65-70kts, I can only imagine the shear doesn't ease off enough to go much above that, which makes sense.

In agreement, the shear monster, dry air and land interaction is playing a pretty important role right now. Would love to see it just sitting there and falling apart. Noticing how the cone continues to creep northward, hoping that trend does not continue. Hoping for the best for the Brownsville/Corpus Christi area.

[Air Force Met]

ECMWF/UKMET will be the same too.

Alex's slow movement is allowing the ridge to build in before he can get to TX. He's gotta start moving or he will end up the the central Mex. coast.

[TexasF6]

The models will continue to flip flop, I stake no claim to anyone of them being "right" until we have a deeper storm. @Portastorm, I made an edit to my statement, apologies!!!

[Big O]

Will be interesting to see if the GFDL and HWRF join the NE Mexico camp. With respect to the European, I would be shocked if it trended north of its previous run. If anything, it may shift south. My call remains 75-100 miles south of TX/MX border.