ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[wx247]

The kids must have went to bed... the thread is slowing down...

How far is that major squall in the NE quad to the drill site??? Looks very impressive... cold, cold cloudtops on that band.

[Time_Zone]

Cloud tops warming....what does this mean? cooler water affecting it?

[americanre1]

I haven't heard any talk about possible storm surge. I was just curious if I need to start getting ready for a massive surge, I live on galveston bay, and since Ike get a little uneasy with storm surges!!

south of corpus and youll be fine

Needless to say this article says its not considered a storm surge but above average storm tides.http://www.theadvertiser.com/article/20100628/NEWS01/100628017/TS+Alex+causing+high+tides+in+La. So if Louisiana is feeling it already that means Texas is going to feel it alot worse.

[CrazyC83]

SFMR now almost supports a hurricane. Intensity probably 60 kt now.

[allicat1214]

The kids must have went to bed... the thread is slowing down...

How far is that major squall in the NE quad to the drill site??? Looks very impressive... cold, cold cloudtops on that band.

Here are the coordinates for the deepwater horizon site:

28.73667°N 88.38716°W

and that heavy band looks to be around generally ...24/91 although it's pretty big and spans over several lat/lon.

There are a few other tstorms farther east that are closer to the DH site, but are still several degrees lower in lat.

i'm not a pro met, but my hubby is involved with the response efforts...

[wx247]

Thanks Allicat. I appreciate your information.

Looks like we almost have Hurricane Alex!!!

[wx247]

Speed is increasing per the 1 AM advisory... NNW @ 8 mph... winds still at 65 mph.

[Nederlander]

Speed is increasing per the 1 AM advisory... NNW @ 8 mph... winds still at 65 mph.

He may finally be starting to make that turn as the ridge builds in..

[CrazyC83]

I'd have bumped it to 70 mph (60 kt) with the latest information. Maybe it didn't get to the NHC in time for the advisory, but unless they find a hurricane, I don't think they will put out a Tropical Cyclone Update.

[Texashawk]

Just checked the recon data - no vortex data yet but according to the pressure and wind vectors it looks like it's still pretty much moving due north, maybe 350 degrees or so.

[JDawg1259]

wow! what a difference from this morning! this is some storm brewing out there knowing that it is only the end of June! Hopefully Alex won't get to carried away with the intensification

[americanre1]

This is a question to all the pro-mets out there. Is there a chance that since there are two distinct convective areas, that they could separate and become two separate systems? Looking at the Gulf of Mexico Water Vapor Loop, seems there is at least a MLC with the upper body.

[Aric Dunn]

looks as though He is about to pop.. it beginning to develop a new mid level circ co-located with the surface circ.. new deep convection firing around center.. probably a hurricane by next 5am if trend continues..

[somethingfunny]

I'd amend that to say we won't get an upgrade without recon, so probably the 11am advisory or a special advisory shortly before it. Alex almost certainly will be a hurricane within 12 hours from now. IMO.

[Texashawk]

What do you think... still north, with a wobble to the north-north west?

[Aric Dunn]

I'd amend that to say we won't get an upgrade without recon, so probably the 11am advisory or a special advisory shortly before it. Alex almost certainly will be a hurricane within 12 hours from now. IMO.

agreed in most cases.. but its is 65 now and if this new convection is deep and expansive enough and maintains till 5am they would likely upgrade.. just have to watch this new burst..

[Aric Dunn]

What do you think... still north, with a wobble to the north-north west?

well from the last recon fix it nearly due north with a nnw motion to it.. very slowly though ..

[allicat1214]

The kids must have went to bed... the thread is slowing down...

How far is that major squall in the NE quad to the drill site??? Looks very impressive... cold, cold cloudtops on that band.

Here are the coordinates for the deepwater horizon site:

28.73667°N 88.38716°W

and that heavy band looks to be around generally ...24/91 although it's pretty big and spans over several lat/lon.

There are a few other tstorms farther east that are closer to the DH site, but are still several degrees lower in lat.

i'm not a pro met, but my hubby is involved with the response efforts...

Here's where the NHC says that heavy band is north of the center in their 2:05 tropical disco:


NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER AND NORTH OF THE
CENTER FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 88W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N-26N BETWEEN
85W-99W.

[Cyclenall]

looks as though He is about to pop.. it beginning to develop a new mid level circ co-located with the surface circ.. new deep convection firing around center.. probably a hurricane by next 5am if trend continues..

This is exactly my thoughts. It's building the eyewall currently in most likelihood. Looks like a large beast for the BOC which is something I haven't seen much from developing TS's.

Cloud tops warming....what does this mean? cooler water affecting it?

No, there is only warmer water ahead of it but if the tops cools down it doesn't mean much at this stage of the TC's life. I've seen TS's that rapidly intensify have it's tops cool down while organizing (Hurricane Bud, Epac 2006).

[TwisterFanatic]

Its say NNW but i keep seeing due North with a little east in there also.