ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

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wx247
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#3341 Postby wx247 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:15 am

The kids must have went to bed... the thread is slowing down... :lol:

How far is that major squall in the NE quad to the drill site??? Looks very impressive... cold, cold cloudtops on that band.
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#3342 Postby Time_Zone » Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:24 am

Cloud tops warming....what does this mean? cooler water affecting it?
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americanre1

Re: Re:

#3343 Postby americanre1 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:34 am

Nederlander wrote:
minter45 wrote:I haven't heard any talk about possible storm surge. I was just curious if I need to start getting ready for a massive surge, I live on galveston bay, and since Ike get a little uneasy with storm surges!!

south of corpus and youll be fine



Needless to say this article says its not considered a storm surge but above average storm tides.http://www.theadvertiser.com/article/20100628/NEWS01/100628017/TS+Alex+causing+high+tides+in+La. So if Louisiana is feeling it already that means Texas is going to feel it alot worse.
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#3344 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:39 am

SFMR now almost supports a hurricane. Intensity probably 60 kt now.
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Re:

#3345 Postby allicat1214 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:39 am

wx247 wrote:The kids must have went to bed... the thread is slowing down... :lol:

How far is that major squall in the NE quad to the drill site??? Looks very impressive... cold, cold cloudtops on that band.



Here are the coordinates for the deepwater horizon site:

28.73667°N 88.38716°W

and that heavy band looks to be around generally ...24/91 although it's pretty big and spans over several lat/lon.

There are a few other tstorms farther east that are closer to the DH site, but are still several degrees lower in lat.

i'm not a pro met, but my hubby is involved with the response efforts...
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#3346 Postby wx247 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:41 am

Thanks Allicat. I appreciate your information. :D

Looks like we almost have Hurricane Alex!!!
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#3347 Postby wx247 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:46 am

Speed is increasing per the 1 AM advisory... NNW @ 8 mph... winds still at 65 mph.
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Re:

#3348 Postby Nederlander » Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:47 am

wx247 wrote:Speed is increasing per the 1 AM advisory... NNW @ 8 mph... winds still at 65 mph.

He may finally be starting to make that turn as the ridge builds in..
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#3349 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:49 am

I'd have bumped it to 70 mph (60 kt) with the latest information. Maybe it didn't get to the NHC in time for the advisory, but unless they find a hurricane, I don't think they will put out a Tropical Cyclone Update.
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#3350 Postby Texashawk » Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:51 am

Just checked the recon data - no vortex data yet but according to the pressure and wind vectors it looks like it's still pretty much moving due north, maybe 350 degrees or so.
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#3351 Postby JDawg1259 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:52 am

wow! what a difference from this morning! this is some storm brewing out there knowing that it is only the end of June! Hopefully Alex won't get to carried away with the intensification :wink:
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americanre1

Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#3352 Postby americanre1 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:53 am

This is a question to all the pro-mets out there. Is there a chance that since there are two distinct convective areas, that they could separate and become two separate systems? Looking at the Gulf of Mexico Water Vapor Loop, seems there is at least a MLC with the upper body.
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#3353 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:54 am

looks as though He is about to pop.. it beginning to develop a new mid level circ co-located with the surface circ.. new deep convection firing around center.. probably a hurricane by next 5am if trend continues..
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#3354 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:58 am

I'd amend that to say we won't get an upgrade without recon, so probably the 11am advisory or a special advisory shortly before it. Alex almost certainly will be a hurricane within 12 hours from now. IMO.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#3355 Postby Texashawk » Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:58 am

What do you think... still north, with a wobble to the north-north west?
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#3356 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 29, 2010 1:00 am

somethingfunny wrote:I'd amend that to say we won't get an upgrade without recon, so probably the 11am advisory or a special advisory shortly before it. Alex almost certainly will be a hurricane within 12 hours from now. IMO.

agreed in most cases.. but its is 65 now and if this new convection is deep and expansive enough and maintains till 5am they would likely upgrade.. just have to watch this new burst..
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#3357 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 29, 2010 1:11 am

Texashawk wrote:What do you think... still north, with a wobble to the north-north west?

well from the last recon fix it nearly due north with a nnw motion to it.. very slowly though ..
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Re: Re:

#3358 Postby allicat1214 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 1:14 am

allicat1214 wrote:
wx247 wrote:The kids must have went to bed... the thread is slowing down... :lol:

How far is that major squall in the NE quad to the drill site??? Looks very impressive... cold, cold cloudtops on that band.



Here are the coordinates for the deepwater horizon site:

28.73667°N 88.38716°W

and that heavy band looks to be around generally ...24/91 although it's pretty big and spans over several lat/lon.

There are a few other tstorms farther east that are closer to the DH site, but are still several degrees lower in lat.

i'm not a pro met, but my hubby is involved with the response efforts...



Here's where the NHC says that heavy band is north of the center in their 2:05 tropical disco:


NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER AND NORTH OF THE
CENTER FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 88W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N-26N BETWEEN
85W-99W.
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Re:

#3359 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Jun 29, 2010 1:15 am

Aric Dunn wrote:looks as though He is about to pop.. it beginning to develop a new mid level circ co-located with the surface circ.. new deep convection firing around center.. probably a hurricane by next 5am if trend continues..

This is exactly my thoughts. It's building the eyewall currently in most likelihood. Looks like a large beast for the BOC which is something I haven't seen much from developing TS's.

Time_Zone wrote:Cloud tops warming....what does this mean? cooler water affecting it?

No, there is only warmer water ahead of it but if the tops cools down it doesn't mean much at this stage of the TC's life. I've seen TS's that rapidly intensify have it's tops cool down while organizing (Hurricane Bud, Epac 2006).
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#3360 Postby TwisterFanatic » Tue Jun 29, 2010 1:26 am

Its say NNW but i keep seeing due North with a little east in there also. :crazyeyes:
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