12:00 UTC suite of tropical models

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cycloneye
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12:00 UTC suite of tropical models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 12, 2003 8:02 am

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03081212

They go into the GOM and more south than before.Scott,chad or Stormsfury will bring the grafic of this 12:00 run from the models.
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#2 Postby Guest » Tue Aug 12, 2003 8:08 am

How can the models accurately project landfall = when its not a TD yet and hasn't crossed over florida? I am going to wait until the system at least gets into the GOM before tooting the horn on where its going. Didn't we learn anything from Claudette?
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#3 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Aug 12, 2003 8:16 am

ticka1 wrote:How can the models accurately project landfall = when its not a TD yet and hasn't crossed over florida? I am going to wait until the system at least gets into the GOM before tooting the horn on where its going. Didn't we learn anything from Claudette?


NO!! HEHEHE!!! :lol: :roll: It now has or will have a good initializatin with the LLCC forming, so models should come into more "agreement" as to what will happpen soon.

Actually, lets presume this does develop as anticipated-The only way it will affect anywhere above S TX on the US coast is if the ULL retrograding in from the NE to TX doesn't do its' thing in a timely manner or if it doesn't get S fast enough to influence the path of the developing TC/TD/TS/Hurricane(what ever it becomes).
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#4 Postby Guest » Tue Aug 12, 2003 8:22 am

Any possiblity it will go to Mexico too?
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#5 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Aug 12, 2003 8:24 am

ticka1 wrote:Any possiblity it will go to Mexico too?


Definitely a good possibility at this time.
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#6 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Aug 12, 2003 8:47 am

Right now, all of the tropical models are depicting a Mexico landfall (the BAMM is just south of Brownsville, TX) ...

SF
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 12, 2003 8:52 am

Stormsfury how about the globals? What are they showing this morning?
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#8 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Aug 12, 2003 8:56 am

I just loaded the globals into Stormtrakker, and the results are this ...

GFS - tropical development - landfall TX/MX border
CMC - emphatic on tropical development - Landfall TX/MX border
GFDL - kills it
NOGAPS - tropical development - a bit slower but heading towards the Central TX Coast
UKMET - not so aggressive on development - heads towards TX/MX border

SF
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#9 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Aug 12, 2003 10:00 am

We should be watching for the potential for the first landfall, not already the second potential landfall.
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