ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[tolakram]

15 good frames now, looks to be intensifying (though this storm has always been deceptive).

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

[TeamPlayersBlue]

TWC just said water is crossing Rd. 87 in Bolivar Peninsula. That poor island is SO flat. Especially after Ike

[wx247]

S. Padre Island just had a gust to 57 mph... sustained winds at 50 mph...

Amazing mesocyclone showing up on my GRLevel 3 that looks to head near or just south of SPadre Island in the next few minutes.

Edit: just gusted to 62 mph...

[KWT]

Not surprising SPI just had strong TS force wind given the band that is going through...band heading near due west so probably will go through Brownsville as well.

[cycloneye]

Up to 85 mph.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 96.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...18 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

[dabears]

Alex has been officially upgraded to 85 mph

[KWT]

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see some significant surge damage at SPI, maybe even a complete overwash of the city. Elevation there is only seven feet and storm surge will likely be in that neighborhood, maybe even a little higher.

Disclaimer: Above is unofficial, my opinion, and should not be used to make any decisions.

Well if they are at 7ft then I think yeah the surge probably will come rather close to washing through, esp if the system were to keep heading WNW/NW like it is presently.

[txagwxman]

Alex moving more west now...won't hit Brownsville...surge i think my best guess is 5-7 feet into S. Padre.
Latest ECMWF moves it due west (not SW).

[dabears]

Is there a new projected path?

[drezee]

Since last recon vortex:

Distance between

N Latitude 23 32 0.00, W Longitude 95 12 0.00 (Point 1)

and N Latitude 24 16 0.00, W Longitude 96 2 0.00 (Point 2)



117.569 kilometers; 73.054 miles
Azimuth from point 1 to point 2 = 314.07°

[tolakram]

Wanted to save this image.

[Texas Snowman]

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see some significant surge damage at SPI, maybe even a complete overwash of the city. Elevation there is only seven feet and storm surge will likely be in that neighborhood, maybe even a little higher.

Disclaimer: Above is unofficial, my opinion, and should not be used to make any decisions.

Well if they are at 7ft then I think yeah the surge probably will come rather close to washing through, esp if the system were to keep heading WNW/NW like it is presently.

Latest advisory from NHC has movement pegged at NW. That's not good for that area. And it looks like the current angle of approach is bringing a very long straight easterly fetch (to my untrained eye anyway) into the vicinity of the mouth of the Rio Grande.

[HURAKAN]

Interesting note, Hurricane Alex is the strongest "A" storm since Hurricane Alex in 2004!!!

LOL

[CrazyC83]

I don't think the 3 to 5 foot storm surge estimate is very realistic at all given the size of the storm and pressure gradient...

[CrazyC83]

Interesting note, Hurricane Alex is the strongest "A" storm since Hurricane Alex in 2004!!!

LOL

That was also the last time the year started off with a hurricane.

[americanre1]

Wanted to save this image.

So they haven't changed the cone of uncertainity, I find that interesting. Right now it would have to move almost due S in the near future to make landfall where they expect. With the weakness in the ridge to the North, what is going to keep it from moving due North????

[americanre1]

So I think there is a chance that this storm will definitely be a US landing Hurricane that is at least a Cat. 2 if not Cat. 3.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

No I agree surge will likely be higher then 3-5ft, thinknig more like 6-8ft.

Looking more like WNW now on the radar, though recon suggests a NW motion is still occuring...

[South Texas Storms]

with the more northward movement, does that mean more rain/wind here in san antonio?

[thetruesms]

Wanted to save this image.

[img]http://img808.imageshack.us/img808/8384/ztemp.gif[img]

So they haven't changed the cone of uncertainity, I find that interesting. Right now it would have to move almost due S in the near future to make landfall where they expect. With the weakness in the ridge to the North, what is going to keep it from moving due North????

forecast tracks aren't updated at intermediate advisories