ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION

#4261 Postby tolakram » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:45 pm

15 good frames now, looks to be intensifying (though this storm has always been deceptive).

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
TeamPlayersBlue
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3445
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
Location: Denver/Applewood, CO

#4262 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:46 pm

TWC just said water is crossing Rd. 87 in Bolivar Peninsula. That poor island is SO flat. Especially after Ike
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
wx247
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14279
Age: 41
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
Location: Monett, Missouri
Contact:

#4263 Postby wx247 » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:51 pm

S. Padre Island just had a gust to 57 mph... sustained winds at 50 mph...

Amazing mesocyclone showing up on my GRLevel 3 that looks to head near or just south of SPadre Island in the next few minutes.

Edit: just gusted to 62 mph...
Last edited by wx247 on Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#4264 Postby KWT » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:53 pm

Not surprising SPI just had strong TS force wind given the band that is going through...band heading near due west so probably will go through Brownsville as well.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145334
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION

#4265 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:53 pm

Up to 85 mph.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 96.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...18 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

dabears
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 19
Joined: Wed Jun 30, 2010 11:34 am

Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION

#4266 Postby dabears » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:54 pm

Alex has been officially upgraded to 85 mph
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: Re:

#4267 Postby KWT » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:54 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:
In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see some significant surge damage at SPI, maybe even a complete overwash of the city. Elevation there is only seven feet and storm surge will likely be in that neighborhood, maybe even a little higher.

Disclaimer: Above is unofficial, my opinion, and should not be used to make any decisions.


Well if they are at 7ft then I think yeah the surge probably will come rather close to washing through, esp if the system were to keep heading WNW/NW like it is presently.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
txagwxman
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 960
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2009 3:26 pm
Location: Tomball, TX

Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION

#4268 Postby txagwxman » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:55 pm

Alex moving more west now...won't hit Brownsville...surge i think my best guess is 5-7 feet into S. Padre.
Latest ECMWF moves it due west (not SW).
0 likes   
“If you thought that science was certain - well, that is just an error on your part.”

dabears
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 19
Joined: Wed Jun 30, 2010 11:34 am

Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION

#4269 Postby dabears » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:55 pm

Is there a new projected path?
0 likes   

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION

#4270 Postby drezee » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:56 pm

Since last recon vortex:

Distance between

N Latitude 23 32 0.00, W Longitude 95 12 0.00 (Point 1)

and N Latitude 24 16 0.00, W Longitude 96 2 0.00 (Point 2)



117.569 kilometers; 73.054 miles
Azimuth from point 1 to point 2 = 314.07°
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION

#4271 Postby tolakram » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:56 pm

Wanted to save this image.

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 6179
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

Re: Re:

#4272 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:56 pm

KWT wrote:
Texas Snowman wrote:
In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see some significant surge damage at SPI, maybe even a complete overwash of the city. Elevation there is only seven feet and storm surge will likely be in that neighborhood, maybe even a little higher.

Disclaimer: Above is unofficial, my opinion, and should not be used to make any decisions.


Well if they are at 7ft then I think yeah the surge probably will come rather close to washing through, esp if the system were to keep heading WNW/NW like it is presently.


Latest advisory from NHC has movement pegged at NW. That's not good for that area. And it looks like the current angle of approach is bringing a very long straight easterly fetch (to my untrained eye anyway) into the vicinity of the mouth of the Rio Grande.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#4273 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:58 pm

Interesting note, Hurricane Alex is the strongest "A" storm since Hurricane Alex in 2004!!!

LOL
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#4274 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:59 pm

I don't think the 3 to 5 foot storm surge estimate is very realistic at all given the size of the storm and pressure gradient...
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re:

#4275 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:59 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Interesting note, Hurricane Alex is the strongest "A" storm since Hurricane Alex in 2004!!!

LOL


That was also the last time the year started off with a hurricane.
0 likes   

americanre1

Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION

#4276 Postby americanre1 » Wed Jun 30, 2010 1:00 pm

tolakram wrote:Wanted to save this image.

Image



So they haven't changed the cone of uncertainity, I find that interesting. Right now it would have to move almost due S in the near future to make landfall where they expect. With the weakness in the ridge to the North, what is going to keep it from moving due North????
0 likes   

americanre1

Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION

#4277 Postby americanre1 » Wed Jun 30, 2010 1:01 pm

So I think there is a chance that this storm will definitely be a US landing Hurricane that is at least a Cat. 2 if not Cat. 3.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#4278 Postby KWT » Wed Jun 30, 2010 1:01 pm

No I agree surge will likely be higher then 3-5ft, thinknig more like 6-8ft.

Looking more like WNW now on the radar, though recon suggests a NW motion is still occuring...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4226
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION

#4279 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Jun 30, 2010 1:02 pm

with the more northward movement, does that mean more rain/wind here in san antonio?
0 likes   

User avatar
thetruesms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 844
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 1:14 pm
Location: Tallahasee, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: HURRICANE ALEX - DISCUSSION

#4280 Postby thetruesms » Wed Jun 30, 2010 1:02 pm

americanre1 wrote:
tolakram wrote:Wanted to save this image.

[img]http://img808.imageshack.us/img808/8384/ztemp.gif[img]



So they haven't changed the cone of uncertainity, I find that interesting. Right now it would have to move almost due S in the near future to make landfall where they expect. With the weakness in the ridge to the North, what is going to keep it from moving due North????
forecast tracks aren't updated at intermediate advisories
0 likes   


Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests