ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[HurricaneStriker]

Seems like a wobble can be the difference between a pressure of 954 and 952.

[ozonepete]

When I saw that pic, I couldn't believe this was still a Category 1.

It can't be a cat 1. There's no way. Just hope recon gets some good readings before it starts to weaken.

Wow!

It has been near Cat 2 for a few hours now, and it's probably at the Cat 1/2 border now. Whether it gains a few more kts to bump it up to Cat 2 is rather trivial, IMO, in the grand scheme of things. The difference in the damage potential between a 100 mph Cat 2 and a 95 mph Cat 1 isn't terribly significant. Sure, it's a pain since someone down the road might compare Alex to a 75 mph tiny hurricane, but that's why one should look at central pressure and max wind speed at land fall instead of just SS category.

Despite its appearance and low minimum central pressure, it's "only" a Cat 1 or weak Cat 2 right now largely because it has a huge wind field for a low-end hurricane. Heck, the hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center, and the tropical storm force winds extend up to 205 mi. That's a very large wind field for a strong Cat 1 or weak Cat 2. Such a large field of TS and Cat1 force winds requires that one have an anomalously low central pressure, otherwise you wouldn't be able to maintain the pressure gradient required for such a wind field. Wind speeds in such systems (well, at least in the mesoscale and larger) are proportional to the pressure gradient, or the change in pressure over some distance. So, if the distance is large (dr is big), and you maintain a TS/Cat1 strength pressure gradient (dp/dr), then the total change in pressure from the center to the background state (that is, dp) must be quite large.

Thanks, WxGuy1. For that exact reason, we can see why it's ramping up now - the wind field has contracted during the day today while the pressure has dropped even further. Wind's would have to increase due to the basic physics.

[drezee]

77kt SFMR...in SE quad

[CrazyC83]

77kt SFMR...in SE quad

That 77 was flagged though.

[Bocadude85]

Looking at the Brownsville radar it appears Ales has slowed a little

[HurricaneStriker]

98kts from recon in I believe the NW eyewall...to be honest thats high enough probably for the NHC to upgrade given it wouldn't take much for there to be another 5-6kts in the NE eyewall...and the pressure is super low now at 952mbs, sure is after Audrey isn't it.

Does look like its slowed down somewhat again. Eye really is looking a little rain filled now.

I agree with you that 98kts (Category 3) and 952mb could be the sign that the NHC could upgrade it. Seems like its trying to buy itself more time again!

[drezee]

77kt SFMR...in SE quad

That 77 was flagged though.

True, there was a 101 that was flagged earlier as well...

[CrazyC83]

98kts from recon in I believe the NW eyewall...to be honest thats high enough probably for the NHC to upgrade given it wouldn't take much for there to be another 5-6kts in the NE eyewall...and the pressure is super low now at 952mbs, sure is after Audrey isn't it.

Does look like its slowed down somewhat again. Eye really is looking a little rain filled now.

I agree with you that 98kts (Category 3) and 952mb could be the sign that the NHC could upgrade it. Seems like its trying to buy itself more time again!

That 98 kt at 850mb equates to about 78 kt at the surface.

[SunnyThoughts]

Recon making a hard right...to sample the NE quadrant again

[ConvergenceZone]

98kts from recon in I believe the NW eyewall...to be honest thats high enough probably for the NHC to upgrade given it wouldn't take much for there to be another 5-6kts in the NE eyewall...and the pressure is super low now at 952mbs, sure is after Audrey isn't it.

Does look like its slowed down somewhat again. Eye really is looking a little rain filled now.

I agree with you that 98kts (Category 3) and 952mb could be the sign that the NHC could upgrade it. Seems like its trying to buy itself more time again!

Sometimes it seems as if these hurricanes are alive with personality.

[KWT]

Looks like recon is going through the NE quadrant to try and find those category-2 winds...I can't imagine they will have too many passes more they can take though now?

Fair play to the crew on that plane, they are doing everything they can to get those category-2 winds.

[Ivanhater]

This is a hurricane in June...this is what we can look "forward" to for this season

[HurricaneStriker]

The eye is starting to get rain filled.

[CrazyC83]

Notice the winds were not calm at all where the 952mb was extrapolated, so it may be around 950mb.

[HurricaneStriker]

This is a hurricane in June...this is what we can look "forward" to for this season

All I can say is wow. These pictures are shocking. The first to me looks like a Category 5!

[KWT]

Yep it sure is HS, radar shows it quite nicely, it really did deepen rapidly again though after that quick EWRC it went through.

Ivanhater, I tell ya what if someone put up that image and asked me to call the strength of the storm, I'd have gone with a borderline 3/4 rather then a 1/2!!!

[CrazyC83]

Still only a Cat 1 based on Recon data. Maybe the NHC will jump to 85 kt just based on pressure and appearance thinking the winds are somewhere not sampled though? (I wouldn't personally)

[Scorpion]

Lol, a 950 mb Cat 1

[SunnyThoughts]

I don't think ANYONE would have believed it had anyone suggested we would see a 950mb cat 1 hurricane lol

[CrazyC83]

I don't think ANYONE would have believed it had anyone suggested we would see a 950mb cat 1 hurricane lol

The lowest pressure I can think of in an over-water Cat 1 was with Gloria in 1985, I believe it was 946mb at one point with winds of 80 kt.