Global model runs discussion

[TexasF6]

This mornings forecast discussion Austin TEXAS: THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS INTERESTING. THE ECMWF SPINS UP ANOTHER SYSTEM BY MONDAY IN THE CARIBBEAN...IN THE SAME VICINITY
WHERE ALEX DEVELOPED. THE ECMWF MOVES THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE YUCATAN
INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF BY WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST BY FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS HAD GOOD SUCCESS IN
IDENTIFYING DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM 5 TO 7 DAYS OUT SO IT BEARS
WATCHING.

[KWT]

The ECM is interesting but its only really shown this feature developing in one of its runs, for now it could just be a outlier run that develops this system in the BoC. To be honest though if this one doesn't develop I think the wave later on that has been mentioned has a reasonable shot.

[thetruesms]

Is anyone else amused when "bears watching" ends up in NWS forecast discussions?

But back on the topic, I'm KWT on this one. I'd prefer a bit more consistency out of what exactly it's developing. It does signal to me though, that at the very least, the ECMWF sees this in general as a favorable area for the development of something that moves through.

[HouTXmetro]

This mornings forecast discussion Austin TEXAS: THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS INTERESTING. THE ECMWF SPINS UP ANOTHER SYSTEM BY MONDAY IN THE CARIBBEAN...IN THE SAME VICINITY
WHERE ALEX DEVELOPED. THE ECMWF MOVES THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE YUCATAN
INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF BY WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST BY FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS HAD GOOD SUCCESS IN
IDENTIFYING DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM 5 TO 7 DAYS OUT SO IT BEARS
WATCHING.

I have a big pool party planned on July 11th for my birthday. This can't be happening. I hope this is wrong.

[USTropics]

Is anyone else amused when "bears watching" ends up in NWS forecast discussions?

But back on the topic, I'm KWT on this one. I'd prefer a bit more consistency out of what exactly it's developing. It does signal to me though, that at the very least, the ECMWF sees this in general as a favorable area for the development of something that moves through.

lol next they'll have pictures of polar bears to go with it. Yea I agree, the model has been back and forth with the the wave along 40W in regards to development and how strong for the past 4-5 days, but the Caribbean seems to be setup for some type of development. If something hasn't already developed before it reaches the western Caribbean, I think the wave along 40W is our player.

[Frank2]

No lack of moisture in the western Caribbean at this time, that's for certain, though I'm surprised the NHC made an invest out of the area in the NE Gulf - really doesn't appear to be much weather there, other than what is/was associated with the slow-moving front (mostly high clouds)...

[BigA]

Count the CMC as onboard for Western Caribbean development. It basically forms "daughter of Alex," which follows the same track as Alex, making landfall in northern Mexico.

[ROCK]

Count the CMC as onboard for Western Caribbean development. It basically forms "daughter of Alex," which follows the same track as Alex, making landfall in northern Mexico.

NAM showing this also but having a hard time beleiving an identical track....EURO out in a few minutes...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12 Z EURO brings weak system into SE LA.

[Fego]

I was wondering, right now is 2:30 pm here in Puerto Rico, so when I open the ECMWF page it shows the 00 UTC run. That is the 8:00 pm in my time zone. The next run will be the 12 UTC, that is 8:00 am in my time zone. If right now is 2:30 pm, why the 12 UTC run is not already available? Hope I didn't confuse you all with my premises.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Good site here but you have to pay for it. EURO comes out early on it..

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/node

[cycloneye]

Today's 12z ECMWF has a landfall on South Texas in 168 hours.

12z ECMWF 7/2/10 Loop

[KWT]

Pretty much exactly the same evolution as Alex though it takes a little longer to develop...odds on the exact same track as the ECM shows would be very long though I'd have thought!

[Flyinman]

Is there any sort of ridge or boundary forcasted to keep this from moving more north towards the upper Texas coast or SW Louisiana if it does develop? It would be strange to see the same path and I am interested as to what the model may be seeing.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Yes. Friday's 12 Z EURO has a High north of the system.

[cycloneye]

The 12z Canadian has the trifecta.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[HurricaneRobert]

Some of those must be phantom storms. GFS has picked up what the Euro has (I think). It brings a weak system into south Texas while the euro has moved it further south into Mexico.

[BigA]

A good number of the models have some sort of tropical low pressure emerging from the western Caribbean and moving into the Gulf within 4-5 days. This seems to me the likeliest candidate in the basin for development during the next week.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12Z EURO has landfall near Brownsville.

[Macrocane]

GFS, CMC and NOGAPS are showing some sort of development north of the Bahamas/east of Florida in 72-96 hours, maybe a Subtropical or Tropical storms could develop from the frontal system that is located in the area at this time.