Global model runs discussion
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs
This mornings forecast discussion Austin TEXAS: THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS INTERESTING. THE ECMWF SPINS UP ANOTHER SYSTEM BY MONDAY IN THE CARIBBEAN...IN THE SAME VICINITY
WHERE ALEX DEVELOPED. THE ECMWF MOVES THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE YUCATAN
INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF BY WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST BY FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS HAD GOOD SUCCESS IN
IDENTIFYING DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM 5 TO 7 DAYS OUT SO IT BEARS
WATCHING.
WHERE ALEX DEVELOPED. THE ECMWF MOVES THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE YUCATAN
INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF BY WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST BY FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS HAD GOOD SUCCESS IN
IDENTIFYING DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM 5 TO 7 DAYS OUT SO IT BEARS
WATCHING.
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The ECM is interesting but its only really shown this feature developing in one of its runs, for now it could just be a outlier run that develops this system in the BoC. To be honest though if this one doesn't develop I think the wave later on that has been mentioned has a reasonable shot.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- thetruesms
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Is anyone else amused when "bears watching" ends up in NWS forecast discussions?
But back on the topic, I'm KWT on this one. I'd prefer a bit more consistency out of what exactly it's developing. It does signal to me though, that at the very least, the ECMWF sees this in general as a favorable area for the development of something that moves through.

But back on the topic, I'm KWT on this one. I'd prefer a bit more consistency out of what exactly it's developing. It does signal to me though, that at the very least, the ECMWF sees this in general as a favorable area for the development of something that moves through.
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- HouTXmetro
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs
TexasF6 wrote:This mornings forecast discussion Austin TEXAS: THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS INTERESTING. THE ECMWF SPINS UP ANOTHER SYSTEM BY MONDAY IN THE CARIBBEAN...IN THE SAME VICINITY
WHERE ALEX DEVELOPED. THE ECMWF MOVES THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE YUCATAN
INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF BY WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST BY FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS HAD GOOD SUCCESS IN
IDENTIFYING DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM 5 TO 7 DAYS OUT SO IT BEARS
WATCHING.

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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
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Re:
thetruesms wrote:Is anyone else amused when "bears watching" ends up in NWS forecast discussions?![]()
But back on the topic, I'm KWT on this one. I'd prefer a bit more consistency out of what exactly it's developing. It does signal to me though, that at the very least, the ECMWF sees this in general as a favorable area for the development of something that moves through.
lol next they'll have pictures of polar bears to go with it. Yea I agree, the model has been back and forth with the the wave along 40W in regards to development and how strong for the past 4-5 days, but the Caribbean seems to be setup for some type of development. If something hasn't already developed before it reaches the western Caribbean, I think the wave along 40W is our player.
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs
Count the CMC as onboard for Western Caribbean development. It basically forms "daughter of Alex," which follows the same track as Alex, making landfall in northern Mexico.
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs
BigA wrote:Count the CMC as onboard for Western Caribbean development. It basically forms "daughter of Alex," which follows the same track as Alex, making landfall in northern Mexico.
NAM showing this also but having a hard time beleiving an identical track....EURO out in a few minutes...
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- KFDM Meteorologist
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- Fego
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs
I was wondering, right now is 2:30 pm here in Puerto Rico, so when I open the ECMWF page it shows the 00 UTC run. That is the 8:00 pm in my time zone. The next run will be the 12 UTC, that is 8:00 am in my time zone. If right now is 2:30 pm, why the 12 UTC run is not already available? Hope I didn't confuse you all with my premises.
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Go Giants! Go Niners! Go Warriors!
- KFDM Meteorologist
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Good site here but you have to pay for it. EURO comes out early on it..
http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/node
http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/node
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- cycloneye
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Pretty much exactly the same evolution as Alex though it takes a little longer to develop...odds on the exact same track as the ECM shows would be very long though I'd have thought!
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs
Is there any sort of ridge or boundary forcasted to keep this from moving more north towards the upper Texas coast or SW Louisiana if it does develop? It would be strange to see the same path and I am interested as to what the model may be seeing.
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- KFDM Meteorologist
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- cycloneye
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs
A good number of the models have some sort of tropical low pressure emerging from the western Caribbean and moving into the Gulf within 4-5 days. This seems to me the likeliest candidate in the basin for development during the next week.
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- KFDM Meteorologist
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs
GFS, CMC and NOGAPS are showing some sort of development north of the Bahamas/east of Florida in 72-96 hours, maybe a Subtropical or Tropical storms could develop from the frontal system that is located in the area at this time.
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