ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - MODELS

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Texas Snowman
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Re: Re:

#61 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun Jul 04, 2010 8:29 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
KWT wrote:Those models suggest Texas, then again those same models pointed to Texas with Alex as well...much is going to depend on where any center forms, because obviously a little to the NE and a similar track to Alex would bring it close if not into Texas...


Agree, but unlike with Alex the steering flow for the next couple of days is NNW not west across the Yucatan


Yep. From where I'm sitting, this one has Texas written all over it, more so than Alex did. I'd say - unofficially of course - that Corpus had better watch out.

BTW, Happy 4th to everyone! :flag:
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#62 Postby rockyman » Sun Jul 04, 2010 9:03 pm

18z (regional) CMC shows system shooting up toward Mobile Bay in 48 hours:

Image

Loop here:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg
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Re:

#63 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 04, 2010 9:10 pm

rockyman wrote:18z (regional) CMC shows system shooting up toward Mobile Bay in 48 hours:

Image

Loop here:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg



I never knew the CMC ran at 18z...that would be worst case scenario for the oil spill....
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Re: Re:

#64 Postby rockyman » Sun Jul 04, 2010 9:11 pm

ROCK wrote:
rockyman wrote:18z (regional) CMC shows system shooting up toward Mobile Bay in 48 hours:

Image

Loop here:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg



I never knew the CMC ran at 18z...that would be worst case scenario for the oil spill....


Only the regional CMC runs at 6 and 18z...mainly focusing on Canada...but it does show the northern part of the Gomex...Would any pros like to weigh in on the value/reliability of these intermediate runs?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - MODELS

#65 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Jul 04, 2010 9:29 pm

What I want to know is what's going on with the buoy in the NW Caribbean...

Image

Ooopsss...wrong thread...
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#66 Postby wxman22 » Sun Jul 04, 2010 10:34 pm

Again FWIW ofcourse the 0z NAM is basically identical to the 18z

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#67 Postby rockyman » Sun Jul 04, 2010 10:37 pm

0z regional CMC (global not out yet):

Image
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#68 Postby rockyman » Sun Jul 04, 2010 10:39 pm

00z GFS running
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#69 Postby rockyman » Sun Jul 04, 2010 10:42 pm

42 hours:
Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - MODELS

#70 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 04, 2010 10:43 pm

42 hrs what is that around LA, AL....must be 95L.....96 no where to be seen...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - MODELS

#71 Postby rockyman » Sun Jul 04, 2010 10:44 pm

ROCK wrote:42 hrs what is that around LA, AL....must be 95L.....96 no where to be seen...


I think that's 96L...very similar to the CMC's regional run...showing 96L shooting up out of the Caribbean toward the North Central Gomex
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - MODELS

#72 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 04, 2010 10:46 pm

ROCK wrote:42 hrs what is that around LA, AL....must be 95L.....96 no where to be seen...


It looks to draw up the moisture from 96L to the NNW with the low level steering flow currently in place..similar to the 18z gfdl
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - MODELS

#73 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 04, 2010 10:46 pm

rockyman wrote:
ROCK wrote:42 hrs what is that around LA, AL....must be 95L.....96 no where to be seen...


I think that's 96L



in 42 hours? no way that is less than 2 days...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - MODELS

#74 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 04, 2010 10:47 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
ROCK wrote:42 hrs what is that around LA, AL....must be 95L.....96 no where to be seen...


It looks to draw up the moisture from 96L to the NNW with the low level steering flow currently in place..similar to the 18z gfdl



Ivan, that is less than 2 days...that cant be 96L unless its moving at 50MPH..... :lol:
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#75 Postby rockyman » Sun Jul 04, 2010 10:48 pm

that's definitely 96L, look at this vorticity loop:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - MODELS

#76 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 04, 2010 10:51 pm

ok then....if you guys say so...I still thought 96 was days away not 42 hrs...
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#77 Postby rockyman » Sun Jul 04, 2010 10:51 pm

if it trucks along at 20 mph, it could make that distance in 2 days.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - MODELS

#78 Postby redfish1 » Sun Jul 04, 2010 10:53 pm

where is final landfall?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - MODELS

#79 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Jul 04, 2010 10:53 pm

Ugh...that GFS run was straight up garbage.

I might be EURO huggin' tonight.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - MODELS

#80 Postby rockyman » Sun Jul 04, 2010 10:54 pm

redfish1 wrote:where is final landfall?


The system falls apart before making landfall, then the energy spreads northward toward the LA/MS/AL/FL area
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