ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[Stormcenter]

Lots of folks throwing in the towel on 96L even before it makes it into the GOM. I say it's way too early to call right now. IMO

[KWT]

Yeah I can see a sheared system out of this, whether or not it makes it to TS status is another matter of course but we shall see. Models quite keen on most of Texas getting a rather rainy day regardless of development.

Worth watching that MLC though, esp with the best Vorticity relocating itself somewhat closer to the MLC.

edit---also just had a look at the shear aloft, looks like there maybe a developing upper high just to the north of that MLC so conditions aloft may not actually be that bad for the system once in the Gulf...

[MGC]

Yea, that MLC might work its way down to the surface once it hits the water....gotta keep an eye on it. If it does spin up it looks to be a N Mexico or S Texas event....MGC

[N2Storms]

[quote="Stormcenter"]Lots of folks throwing in the towel on 96L even before it makes it into the GOM. I say it's way too early to call right now. IMO[/quote]



I agree...while I don't think it will match Alex I think it will become Bonnie and ulitimately move inland somewhere along the Central Texas coast...I can see Hou/Gal and SW La getting lots and lots of precip

[Dean4Storms]

When even the Canadian isn't making you a Cat 5 you know your meant just to be an Invest evidently!

[vbhoutex]

High speed visible loop. 30 frames, speed it up to get a good idea of the motion.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

It really doesn't look all that bad, and i see numerous hints at a LLC starting to form.

I have to say that it appears to me a possible LLC is trying to form NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. Of course my eyes are not as trained as our pro mets and I don't have access to some of the information they have so I bow to them when they say there is no LLC. Even if there is one trying to form this system has a long way to go to be anything besides a major rainmaker wherever it ends up "landfalling" by the end of the week. Even though the models have moved South with this, wxman57 has pointed out the reason that may be happening. We really don't need the kind of rain this may produce anywhere along the TX Coast or for that matter LA either. And unfortunately the winds around this(and previously Alex) have now started to bring small amounts of the oil from the Horizon disaster to the beaches of SE TX.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think we are in a Lull right now...The busy potential we experienced over the weekend was obviously just a head fake (we went from 4 potential areas to almost no areas aside from 96L) within a couple of days.

Wait until August....

[CrazyC83]

I think we are in a Lull right now...The busy potential we experienced over the weekend was obviously just a head fake (we went from 4 potential areas to almost no areas aside from 96L) within a couple of days.

Wait until August....

I guess they were bored that night? Two of them ended up POOF, and one had great potential but made landfall (maybe still was a storm though?)

[wxman57]

The MLC is clear to see now over the NW Yucatan. But surface obs don't indicate anything of significance yet. Satellite loops can be very deceiving when trying to identify an LLC. That's why I combine satellite with surface obs.

[KWT]

vbhoutex, I just had a look at that loop and it does rather look like there is some low level clouds that are heading southwards off the NW Yucatan and that may well be a sign that there is some sort of low level turning trying to develop, and its right over where the ULH is right now and the MLC isn't far off either.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Iv'e been looking at this Vis loop all day and that vigorous MLC on the Yucatan continue's to move NW towards the weak Low Level Swirl to the NW in the Gulf. Again, I'm thinking this is trying to "stack" and we have lift off if convection starts to fire. Tonight is critical IMO.

[KWT]

Convection starting to develop as the sun goes down over the MLC. That feature will probably be over water again in about 6hrs, good job as it seems like its starting to elongate again.

[HouTXmetro]

Convection starting to develop as the sun goes down over the MLC. That feature will probably be over water again in about 6hrs, good job as it seems like its starting to elongate again.

Elongate towards the phantom LL swirl? and I say phantom because nothing supports a low level circualtion besides satellite appearance.

[vbhoutex]

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Tonight will be interesting to watch if indeed what we are seeing off the NW Yucatan is an attempt at low level turning. That MLC is almost too obvious which I would think means it has some energy with it, especially since it was "hiding" last night and is still intact. If it does catch up to our "phantom" we will find out if something is really trying to get going.
Also I am not buying the models taking this system into N MX or S TX. I think the reason for the shift south is that they are seeing the ULL that is quickly retrograding NW out of the way as a weakness and not taking what was 95L into consideration. IMO, between that and ex-95L I think whatever 96L becomes is at a minimum a Central TX coast landfall if not further up the coast. This is not -removed-. It is observations of what I see going on in the atmosphere. The last thing we need right now is any more heavy tropical downpours! Light to moderate rains would be ok if they don't last too long.

[xcool22]

surface low in the Gulf is blowing up hmmmm

[wxman57]

surface low in the Gulf is blowing up hmmmm

That would be an incorrect statement.

[BigA]

There's a developing upper level high just to the north of the mid level circulation. This is probably a plus factor for development.



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[xcool22]

thanks .that why i hmmm

[Ikester]

The TUTT could also help ventilate the system...

[xcool22]

sorry i was wrong