KWT wrote:As I said in one of the other threads a monster high is the worst case in any set-up because if it doesn't weaken it'll slam CA, if it weakens any or lifts north like I'm real worried will happen will cause the threat zone to lift north.
Put it this way, if we start getting CV waves come off at 15N they probably will be a bigger threat to the Caribbean and US down the line...
ECM does develp a strong high only to weaken it again quite qucikly.
And moreover, the strength/expanse of the surface reflection of the Azores-Bermuda ridge is not the best proxy for strength of the deep layer mean ridge...or at least the low to mid level (say 1000-500MB or 850-500MB) ridge. Sure, there's some degree of correlation, but what is being looked at by posting these surface charts are "base of the mountain" so to speak. Also, the charts that get posted aren't terribly high resolution.
The main point I want to drive home is that there can be weaknesses, pariciularly AOA 700MB, that don't show up well (if at all) at the surface, but will be felt by a westward moving t-wave. Unfortunately, unlike the CIMSS steering analysis fields, global model forecasts of mean height and wind fields are not readily available for the Atlantic basin.
