
ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS
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18z para GFS 850mb greatest vorticity maps:
24 hrs - Tues. Afternoon
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_024l.gif
48 hrs - Wed. Afternoon
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_048l.gif
72 hrs - Thurs. Afternoon
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_072l.gif
96 hrs - Fri. Afternoon
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_096l.gif
120 hrs - Sat. Afternoon
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_120l.gif
24 hrs - Tues. Afternoon
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_024l.gif
48 hrs - Wed. Afternoon
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_048l.gif
72 hrs - Thurs. Afternoon
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_072l.gif
96 hrs - Fri. Afternoon
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_096l.gif
120 hrs - Sat. Afternoon
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_120l.gif
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GFS takes it into S.Florida, looks to me though the GFS is a little too far north in the next 2-4 days IMO...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS
I have seen some mention about 97L skirting the west florida coast moving nnw due to the ridge breaking down and moving east. Don't think it is going to happen. By thursday the ridge is forecast to strengthen and build back west. Highs around here late week and weekend forecast to be in upper 90's.
Here is part of our long range forecast discussing this...
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS WEST FOR THURSDAY AND INCREASE SUBSIDENCE WILL
GREATLY REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL
INTO THE 90S AND PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 105 OR POTENTIALLY
GREATER IN SOME AREA. THESE ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE MENTIONED
IN THE HWO.
I have a feeling this could go further west than models show right now, IF IT EVEN DOES DEVELOP.
Here is part of our long range forecast discussing this...
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS WEST FOR THURSDAY AND INCREASE SUBSIDENCE WILL
GREATLY REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL
INTO THE 90S AND PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 105 OR POTENTIALLY
GREATER IN SOME AREA. THESE ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE MENTIONED
IN THE HWO.
I have a feeling this could go further west than models show right now, IF IT EVEN DOES DEVELOP.
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I totally agree, when it comes to upper highs building in I pay the most attention to the ECM track solution, the GFS tends to be rather too keen at times to break such features down. Of course as per normal, more runs have to be made no doubt about it!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- gatorcane
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12Z UKMET seems to show a different orientation of the Western Atlantic ridge than the 18Z GFS parallel run. Here we are at 72 hours with a ESE to WNW alignment. Note that break in the ridge at 70W as well, could prevent 97L from moving into Hispaniola or Eastern Cuba and stay on a WNW movement into the SE Bahamas should 97L become deeper in 3 days from now which would allow it to be influenced by some of the 500MB flow:


Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Jul 19, 2010 7:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:12Z UKMET seems to show a different orientation of the Western Atlantic ridge than the 18Z GFS parallel run. Here we are at 72 hours with a ESE to WNW alignment. Note that break in the ridge at 70W as well, could prevent 97L from moving into Hispaniola or Eastern Cuba and stay on a WNW movement into the SE Bahamas:
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal072.gif
NHC is liking that solution too based on their track
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS
Please refrain from reposting images when quoting. Thanks.
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Note though the UKMO holds the upper high very strong through 120hrs, that run is probably a LA/TX run as it happens, remember the UKMO can overdo highs, though given the state of the global pattern right now, it may be closer to the mark then the more 'troughy' models...who knows.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS
00Z tropical models
Code: Select all
586
WHXX01 KWBC 200035
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0035 UTC TUE JUL 20 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100720 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100720 0000 100720 1200 100721 0000 100721 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.0N 65.8W 20.0N 69.2W 20.7N 72.1W 21.0N 75.2W
BAMD 19.0N 65.8W 19.7N 67.8W 20.3N 69.7W 20.7N 71.4W
BAMM 19.0N 65.8W 19.8N 68.1W 20.3N 70.3W 20.5N 72.5W
LBAR 19.0N 65.8W 19.6N 68.2W 20.4N 71.1W 20.9N 74.0W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 47KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100722 0000 100723 0000 100724 0000 100725 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.8N 77.8W 20.1N 82.7W 20.2N 86.8W 20.8N 89.9W
BAMD 21.1N 73.1W 22.0N 76.7W 23.0N 80.8W 24.7N 84.7W
BAMM 20.6N 74.4W 21.0N 78.1W 22.1N 81.8W 23.9N 85.1W
LBAR 21.7N 77.0W 23.2N 83.2W 24.9N 89.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 54KTS 67KTS 79KTS 84KTS
DSHP 54KTS 33KTS 41KTS 48KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.0N LONCUR = 65.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 18.8N LONM12 = 63.8W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 18.5N LONM24 = 61.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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- chzzdekr81
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS
I am thinking WLA to Central LA IF this does develope.....then again it all depends on the ridge. It is July and SV dont dig as far south as they will in a few months...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS
Chezzdrk models should be taking lightly at this point...we have no center and you cant latch on to one trend or another at this stage of the game...
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NWS Tally AFD this afternoon has the Atlantic Ridging weakening over the weekend.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN THE NRN STREAM COMMENCES WITH A TROUGH OVER WRN MOST
STATES...BROAD RIDGING FROM WRN PLAINS EWD TO WEAK TROFFING OVER ERN
STATES. TYPICALLY SUMMERTIME SRN STREAM PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY A
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WITH RISING
HEIGHTS...LOW PWATS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ESE AND STRENGTHENS
BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FIRST HALF
OF EXTENDED. THIS LEADS TO A GRADUAL WARM UP AS IT PEAKS IN STRENGTH
ON THURSDAY THEN WEAKENS SAT INTO MON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF APPROACHES THE AREA. BY END OF EXTENDED
PERIOD...WRN TROUGH AND ASSOCD SHORTWAVES NOW ACROSS NE CONUS WHICH
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS DOMINANT SRN RIDGE ESE BACK INTO ATLC WITH
ANOTHER DEVELOPING RIDGE AND STRONGEST HEIGHT RISES NOW OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN THE NRN STREAM COMMENCES WITH A TROUGH OVER WRN MOST
STATES...BROAD RIDGING FROM WRN PLAINS EWD TO WEAK TROFFING OVER ERN
STATES. TYPICALLY SUMMERTIME SRN STREAM PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY A
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WITH RISING
HEIGHTS...LOW PWATS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ESE AND STRENGTHENS
BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FIRST HALF
OF EXTENDED. THIS LEADS TO A GRADUAL WARM UP AS IT PEAKS IN STRENGTH
ON THURSDAY THEN WEAKENS SAT INTO MON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF APPROACHES THE AREA. BY END OF EXTENDED
PERIOD...WRN TROUGH AND ASSOCD SHORTWAVES NOW ACROSS NE CONUS WHICH
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS DOMINANT SRN RIDGE ESE BACK INTO ATLC WITH
ANOTHER DEVELOPING RIDGE AND STRONGEST HEIGHT RISES NOW OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS
Ahh, the 'ol will the ridge hold or break down debate..is it hurricane season?
I will say though, both the GFS and Euro weaken the high when this in the gulf as wxman57 alluded to. (He is liking Mid gulf coast right now). As always everyone should be on alert this early...

I will say though, both the GFS and Euro weaken the high when this in the gulf as wxman57 alluded to. (He is liking Mid gulf coast right now). As always everyone should be on alert this early...
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Michael
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Re:
Dean4Storms wrote:NWS Tally AFD this afternoon has the Atlantic Ridging weakening over the weekend.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN THE NRN STREAM COMMENCES WITH A TROUGH OVER WRN MOST
STATES...BROAD RIDGING FROM WRN PLAINS EWD TO WEAK TROFFING OVER ERN
STATES. TYPICALLY SUMMERTIME SRN STREAM PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY A
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WITH RISING
HEIGHTS...LOW PWATS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ESE AND STRENGTHENS
BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FIRST HALF
OF EXTENDED. THIS LEADS TO A GRADUAL WARM UP AS IT PEAKS IN STRENGTH
ON THURSDAY THEN WEAKENS SAT INTO MON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF APPROACHES THE AREA. BY END OF EXTENDED
PERIOD...WRN TROUGH AND ASSOCD SHORTWAVES NOW ACROSS NE CONUS WHICH
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS DOMINANT SRN RIDGE ESE BACK INTO ATLC WITH
ANOTHER DEVELOPING RIDGE AND STRONGEST HEIGHT RISES NOW OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
where about would this system be located at this time??
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS
18Z NAM:

Opps IH, posted this mornings 00Z earlier. Long day.

Opps IH, posted this mornings 00Z earlier. Long day.
Last edited by ronjon on Mon Jul 19, 2010 8:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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