ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#81 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Jul 19, 2010 5:21 pm

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#82 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Jul 19, 2010 5:22 pm

114h

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#83 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Jul 19, 2010 5:33 pm

ok, so did the GFS lose the system? those maps confused me.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#84 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Jul 19, 2010 5:33 pm

yes
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#85 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jul 19, 2010 5:41 pm

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#86 Postby KWT » Mon Jul 19, 2010 5:44 pm

GFS takes it into S.Florida, looks to me though the GFS is a little too far north in the next 2-4 days IMO...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#87 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Mon Jul 19, 2010 6:41 pm

I have seen some mention about 97L skirting the west florida coast moving nnw due to the ridge breaking down and moving east. Don't think it is going to happen. By thursday the ridge is forecast to strengthen and build back west. Highs around here late week and weekend forecast to be in upper 90's.

Here is part of our long range forecast discussing this...
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS WEST FOR THURSDAY AND INCREASE SUBSIDENCE WILL
GREATLY REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL
INTO THE 90S AND PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 105 OR POTENTIALLY
GREATER IN SOME AREA. THESE ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE MENTIONED
IN THE HWO.

I have a feeling this could go further west than models show right now, IF IT EVEN DOES DEVELOP.
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#88 Postby KWT » Mon Jul 19, 2010 7:15 pm

I totally agree, when it comes to upper highs building in I pay the most attention to the ECM track solution, the GFS tends to be rather too keen at times to break such features down. Of course as per normal, more runs have to be made no doubt about it!
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#89 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 19, 2010 7:23 pm

12Z UKMET seems to show a different orientation of the Western Atlantic ridge than the 18Z GFS parallel run. Here we are at 72 hours with a ESE to WNW alignment. Note that break in the ridge at 70W as well, could prevent 97L from moving into Hispaniola or Eastern Cuba and stay on a WNW movement into the SE Bahamas should 97L become deeper in 3 days from now which would allow it to be influenced by some of the 500MB flow:

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Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Jul 19, 2010 7:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#90 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Jul 19, 2010 7:25 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z UKMET seems to show a different orientation of the Western Atlantic ridge than the 18Z GFS parallel run. Here we are at 72 hours with a ESE to WNW alignment. Note that break in the ridge at 70W as well, could prevent 97L from moving into Hispaniola or Eastern Cuba and stay on a WNW movement into the SE Bahamas:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal072.gif


NHC is liking that solution too based on their track
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#91 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jul 19, 2010 7:28 pm

Please refrain from reposting images when quoting. Thanks.
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#92 Postby KWT » Mon Jul 19, 2010 7:41 pm

Note though the UKMO holds the upper high very strong through 120hrs, that run is probably a LA/TX run as it happens, remember the UKMO can overdo highs, though given the state of the global pattern right now, it may be closer to the mark then the more 'troughy' models...who knows.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#93 Postby clfenwi » Mon Jul 19, 2010 7:45 pm

00Z tropical models

Code: Select all

586
WHXX01 KWBC 200035
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0035 UTC TUE JUL 20 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100720 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100720  0000   100720  1200   100721  0000   100721  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.0N  65.8W   20.0N  69.2W   20.7N  72.1W   21.0N  75.2W
BAMD    19.0N  65.8W   19.7N  67.8W   20.3N  69.7W   20.7N  71.4W
BAMM    19.0N  65.8W   19.8N  68.1W   20.3N  70.3W   20.5N  72.5W
LBAR    19.0N  65.8W   19.6N  68.2W   20.4N  71.1W   20.9N  74.0W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          39KTS          47KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          39KTS          47KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100722  0000   100723  0000   100724  0000   100725  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.8N  77.8W   20.1N  82.7W   20.2N  86.8W   20.8N  89.9W
BAMD    21.1N  73.1W   22.0N  76.7W   23.0N  80.8W   24.7N  84.7W
BAMM    20.6N  74.4W   21.0N  78.1W   22.1N  81.8W   23.9N  85.1W
LBAR    21.7N  77.0W   23.2N  83.2W   24.9N  89.4W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        54KTS          67KTS          79KTS          84KTS
DSHP        54KTS          33KTS          41KTS          48KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  19.0N LONCUR =  65.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  18.8N LONM12 =  63.8W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  18.5N LONM24 =  61.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN
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#94 Postby chzzdekr81 » Mon Jul 19, 2010 7:47 pm

Image
The first 4 models have my area written all over it :eek:
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#95 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 19, 2010 7:52 pm

I am thinking WLA to Central LA IF this does develope.....then again it all depends on the ridge. It is July and SV dont dig as far south as they will in a few months...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#96 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 19, 2010 7:55 pm

Chezzdrk models should be taking lightly at this point...we have no center and you cant latch on to one trend or another at this stage of the game...
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#97 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Jul 19, 2010 8:01 pm

NWS Tally AFD this afternoon has the Atlantic Ridging weakening over the weekend.



LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN THE NRN STREAM COMMENCES WITH A TROUGH OVER WRN MOST
STATES...BROAD RIDGING FROM WRN PLAINS EWD TO WEAK TROFFING OVER ERN
STATES. TYPICALLY SUMMERTIME SRN STREAM PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY A
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WITH RISING
HEIGHTS...LOW PWATS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ESE AND STRENGTHENS
BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FIRST HALF
OF EXTENDED. THIS LEADS TO A GRADUAL WARM UP AS IT PEAKS IN STRENGTH
ON THURSDAY THEN WEAKENS SAT INTO MON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF APPROACHES THE AREA. BY END OF EXTENDED
PERIOD...WRN TROUGH AND ASSOCD SHORTWAVES NOW ACROSS NE CONUS WHICH
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS DOMINANT SRN RIDGE ESE BACK INTO ATLC WITH
ANOTHER DEVELOPING RIDGE AND STRONGEST HEIGHT RISES NOW OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#98 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 19, 2010 8:02 pm

Ahh, the 'ol will the ridge hold or break down debate..is it hurricane season? :lol:

I will say though, both the GFS and Euro weaken the high when this in the gulf as wxman57 alluded to. (He is liking Mid gulf coast right now). As always everyone should be on alert this early...
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Re:

#99 Postby redfish1 » Mon Jul 19, 2010 8:03 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:NWS Tally AFD this afternoon has the Atlantic Ridging weakening over the weekend.



LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN THE NRN STREAM COMMENCES WITH A TROUGH OVER WRN MOST
STATES...BROAD RIDGING FROM WRN PLAINS EWD TO WEAK TROFFING OVER ERN
STATES. TYPICALLY SUMMERTIME SRN STREAM PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY A
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WITH RISING
HEIGHTS...LOW PWATS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ESE AND STRENGTHENS
BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FIRST HALF
OF EXTENDED. THIS LEADS TO A GRADUAL WARM UP AS IT PEAKS IN STRENGTH
ON THURSDAY THEN WEAKENS SAT INTO MON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF APPROACHES THE AREA. BY END OF EXTENDED
PERIOD...WRN TROUGH AND ASSOCD SHORTWAVES NOW ACROSS NE CONUS WHICH
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS DOMINANT SRN RIDGE ESE BACK INTO ATLC WITH
ANOTHER DEVELOPING RIDGE AND STRONGEST HEIGHT RISES NOW OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.


where about would this system be located at this time??
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#100 Postby ronjon » Mon Jul 19, 2010 8:05 pm

18Z NAM:

Image

Opps IH, posted this mornings 00Z earlier. Long day.
Last edited by ronjon on Mon Jul 19, 2010 8:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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