Weatherfreak000 wrote:If the system has increased in thunderstorm activity, it has gotten better organized. 97L has been getting better organized all day.
While it is true that increased convection is often associated with better organization, it is not the only explanation. Diurnal variation with a noctural/dawn maximum or increased divergence on the SE quadrant of the ULL may also explain the blowup of thunderstorms. If the storms are persistent, then we've got ourselves a ballgame, but waiting another 6 hrs won't hurt. If 97L had truly been getting better organized all day with an obvious LCC and westerly winds, then people would not have fallen off the bandwagon this evening. Patience is key.
Weatherfreak000 wrote:No doubt the NHC is playing the conservative route. Tomorrow we will be on our way with cyclogenesis in the ATL.
I don't get this criticism; it's too simplistic. When verifying anything, there is a balance between the probability of detection (POD) and false alarms rates (FAR). If you're worried about public perception and want to be "conservative" and not miss any developing system, as you attribute the NHC to doing, keeping your formation probability high would be the best way to improve the POD. Realize, however, that this would be paid for by decreasing the FAR, making people less likely to trust your numbers as you would "cry-wolf" more often.
Who knows what might happen overnight. IMO and experience... like I'm about to do... I am going to bed. Wake up and see what it looks like in the morning...
Short answer, it depends. 
I wouldn't stay up even if I lived in the Keys or south Florida, because this would be a TD at most when you wake up tomorrow (and more likely still just a wave without a LLC), and there would still be plenty of time to prepare. Just my opinion, though. I admit to staying up for such systems when I was younger. 
