ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[PTrackerLA]

We'll we're smack dab in the cone in south LA but with no models showing much if any intensification I'm not overly concerned at all. We had a very dry first half of the year so a quick moving TS shouldn't cause too many problems in this area.

[hurricanefloyd5]

what are the chances of the center reforming/relocating to the north under all that convection?

[Aric Dunn]

what are the chances of the center reforming/relocating to the north under all that convection?

very high .. it is doing so atm..

[Frank2]

Any comments from the pro mets about the TUTT-like feature currently en-route to TD-3 (lol):

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Comanche]

Anybody have color from JB?

[SFLcane]

what are the chances of the center reforming/relocating to the north under all that convection?

very high .. it is doing so atm..

TD3 on vis sat looks a bit right of track. It will be interesting to see what recon finds.

[Aric Dunn]

The center is still moving well off it forecast track..

[hurricanefloyd5]

The center is still moving well off it forecast track..

what are the chances of us here in central Florida get a tornado watch?????

[Vortmax1]

That's quite a bit off Aric.
This is what I was concerned about regarding tracking.
These shifts and relocations can really mess up tracking.

Thanks for the info.

[Javlin]

That's quite a bit off Aric.
This is what I was concerned about regarding tracking.
These shifts and relocations can really mess up tracking.

Thanks for the info.

It looks to me that the ULL is the reason for the shift N for the short term.The ULL looks to be moving almost SW/SSW.TD3 has to go around cannot go through it I think it was Chantal(?) that got slingshot around an ULL into upper TX coast?

[StormClouds63]

Center does appear to be reforming significantly farther to the north. Thank goodness it's July and not August or September. I could see TD3 approaching New Orleans from the E/SE moving W/NW. A very bad scenario if a big storm, but shouldn't be an issue if the intensity forecast holds firm.

[tolakram]

Poof goes the shear.

[Bocadude85]

The center is still moving well off it forecast track..

[img][/img]

Is the center reforming or did it just fall apart?

[tolakram]

Looks like more moisture on the way as well, as Aric mentioned a while back.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[Aquawind]

Poof goes the shear.

Ouch..My Best Friend is gone..say it ain't sooo..

It's clearly well north of the forecasted path atm..

[Aric Dunn]

The center is still moving well off it forecast track..

[img][/img]

Is the center reforming or did it just fall apart?

its reforming ... it may reform even farther north as long as the mid level shear keeps up.. but it looks like the mid level shear will subside soon as well.

[HouTXmetro]

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=108610&start=1780

What is this center reforming stuff? I still see the same center. Granted it's weak and could reform further north but that has yet to happen.

[Air Force Met]

Poof goes the shear.

Ouch..My Best Friend is gone..say it ain't sooo..

It's clearly well north of the forecasted path atm..

I think its hard to say whether or not it is well north of the points. I thought the initial location was probably too far SW to begin with. Until recon gets there and we have several fixes...its going to be difficult to say which was its moving. One thing is for sure...it will bump into the high. Whether or not you get some center relocations closer to the convection (which is likley)...the overall movement will be WNW and then W as it gets near the base of the ridge. I doubt the impacts for Fl will vary much...regardless of where the center is right now...

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the 2pm advisory:

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCATION PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. AT 200 PM
EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR SOON...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

[Hurricane]

Since the center relocated, should the track go more north?