ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[hurricanefloyd5]

Ramping-up faster than I thought it would be, that's for sure.

what do you mean jasons

[TheBurn]

[Nederlander]

ok, i'll be hibernating on this site again .

Well 2 things. Being from Houston, i dont like our position in this cone. Possible that it swings our way still.

Secondly, do you guy REALLY think this storm will cross much of the GOM and not blossom into at least a CAT 1 or CAT 2 hurricane?

Disclaimer : Not a forecast and should not be taken as one. I'm a finance major not a MET major

Yeah the Gulf waters are really really warm.. but the interaction with the ULL is going to cause significant shearing problems for Bonnie unless the ULL speeds up and gets out of the way.. I think the further west Bonnie goes, the stronger it will be.. it will give the ULL more time to get out of the way so to speak..

EDIT: you are correct jinftl.. i was talking more about longterm track implications.. of course this close to the florida peninsula a slight wobble will make a big difference as far as where the center comes ashore...

[StormTracker]

I dont think the NW motion is a trend that will continue.. Its going to make jogs and wobbles here and there.. This motion is probably due to the effects of the ULL.. I think it will start bending back to the WNW over the next few hours.. I would say this is coming in somewhere between Key Largo and Miami.. I will make Homestead my mark..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm with you on that! I eluded to Homestead as a possible landfall in an earlier post! We'll see what happens!

[jasons2k]

Ramping-up faster than I thought it would be, that's for sure.

what do you mean jasons

I didn't expect Bonnie until Friday...but that is going back a few days...

[Countrygirl911]

Does anybody think this will become a hurricane if so what cat do you thin I am new to these boards

[antonlsu]

She is compacting

[AdamFirst]

Does anybody think this will become a hurricane if so what cat do you thin I am new to these boards

I don't expect a hurricane but anything is possible. I'm thinking it's a moderate TS (50-55MPH) when it's approaching Florida

[srainhoutx]

Latest...

[jinftl]

There are 6+ million in florida under watches/warnings and an oil spill that Bonnie could impact long before we can assess the risk to Texas.....one thing at a time!

ok, i'll be hibernating on this site again .

Well 2 things. Being from Houston, i dont like our position in this cone. Possible that it swings our way still.

Secondly, do you guy REALLY think this storm will cross much of the GOM and not blossom into at least a CAT 1 or CAT 2 hurricane?

Disclaimer : Not a forecast and should not be taken as one. I'm a finance major not a MET major

[Countrygirl911]

Everyone stay safe in FL. After it gets into the gulf what strength do you think it can get to

[ROCK]

she is compacting because she about to be crunched from the NE by the building ridge...nice Bonnie sandwich....she is moving NW now but it wont be much longer...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

[jasons2k]

It's apparent on the WV that the ULL is now really distancing itself from Bonnie...and the ULL is moving almost due west.

[Nederlander]

Does anybody think this will become a hurricane if so what cat do you thin I am new to these boards

Probably not before its first landfall in FL.. I do think it has a shot, however, in the GOM.. As I eluded to earlier, I think if the ridge builds strong, the further west it will push Bonnie, and the further west she goes, the longer she has to ramp up, assuming the ULL races away and doesnt shear Bonnie to death.. a lot of ifs at this point.. but none of the models have been bullish on a strong system, so I will stick with them at this time, a moderate to strong TS somewhere along the central gulf coast.. just an amateur opinion

[Nederlander]

It's apparent on the WV that the ULL is now really distancing itself from Bonnie...and the ULL is moving almost due west.

I agree jasons... here is a good link to see what he is talking about.. the fast it pulls away, the less shear there will be for Bonnie

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

Edit: Also, notice that recent pop in convection on the vis image.. and this is during D-Min correct?

[ConvergenceZone]

Does anybody think this will become a hurricane if so what cat do you thin I am new to these boards

Probably not before its first landfall in FL.. I do think it has a shot, however, in the GOM.. As I eluded to earlier, I think if the ridge builds strong, the further west it will push Bonnie, and the further west she goes, the longer she has to ramp up, assuming the ULL races away and doesnt shear Bonnie to death.. a lot of ifs at this point.. but none of the models have been bullish on a strong system, so I will stick with them at this time, a moderate to strong TS somewhere along the central gulf coast.. just an amateur opinion

No possible way of getting to a hurricane before it hits Forida, probably not even close.
then maybe a mid to strong tropical storm once it hits the gulf due to the forecasted shear.

[Cape Verde]

Churning up the Gulf waters is a mixed blessing. It should break up some of the oil slicks but it's also going to push some of the oil where it hasn't been before. The path of the storm is unfortunate because it will be driving the oil toward the shoreline, not away from it.

The real story of Bonnie will be the storm surge, or the lack thereof.

[jlauderdal]

hey where did all that dry air go, PWAT going to 2.6 tomorrow, that is impressive to say the least

[redfish1]

she is compacting because she about to be crunched from the NE by the building ridge...nice Bonnie sandwich....she is moving NW now but it wont be much longer...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

i agree ROCK i think we are about to start seeing more of a westerly movement real soon

[supercane]

New fix
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 22:26:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°45'N 75°35'W (22.75N 75.5833W)

Old fix
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 21:18:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°47'N 75°19'W (22.7833N 75.3167W)