Wave in Central Caribbean

[TwisterFanatic]

Yeah, there is no storm there. LOL

It just came of the coast of Africa.. they don't tend to develop until days later..

[Aquawind]

It may be naked but, it looks impressive. If it stays in the MDR it looks to be a player down the road..

[SouthFloridawx]

It may be naked but, it looks impressive. If it stays in the MDR it looks to be a player down the road..

No poof?

[SouthFloridawx]

Consensus...

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS seems to think it might be a player down the road.

GFS 18Z: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2010072518&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

[Aquawind]

It may be naked but, it looks impressive. If it stays in the MDR it looks to be a player down the road..

No poof?

Prolly the usual poof refire poof refire..lol

[Ivanhater]

Turning is quite evident





HPC forecast day 5

[cycloneye]

Here is the vorticity by GFS for test PGI20L. Also I posted the general link for test PGI20L.

GFS 850 MB vorticity for PGI20L

PGI20L

[xcool22]

PGI20L 100725 0000 15.8N 18.4W ATL 15 1010mb .not invests:

[cycloneye]

Here is the water vapor image of the Atlantic and turn your attention to the right and you can see a big moist area moving west in tandem with this wave.

[gatorcane]

This wave will need to be watched for development down the road (maybe end of this week). The moisture envelope is large and there is a very distinct spin present on visible and water vapor loops. SAL doesn't look to be a big issue and the upper-level winds appear that they are going to cooperate for development as it heads West through the MDR. In fact the shear is quite low all the way through the MDR at this point. It just needs a catalyst to spark up some convection.

[Blown Away]

This wave will need to be watched for development down the road (maybe end of this week). The moisture envelope is large and there is a very distinct spin present on visible and water vapor loops. SAL doesn't look to be a big issue and the upper-level winds appear that they are going to cooperate for development as it heads West through the MDR. In fact the shear is quite low all the way through the MDR at this point. It just needs a catalyst to spark up some convection.

Most of the MDR is dry air, do you think this wave's moisture envelope is big enough to overcome the dry air?

[cycloneye]

Here is a good loop of this void of convection circulation in hyperlink. They are still tracking it and you can see in what direction they expect it to move.

PGI20L Loop

[wzrgirl1]

This wave will need to be watched for development down the road (maybe end of this week). The moisture envelope is large and there is a very distinct spin present on visible and water vapor loops. SAL doesn't look to be a big issue and the upper-level winds appear that they are going to cooperate for development as it heads West through the MDR. In fact the shear is quite low all the way through the MDR at this point. It just needs a catalyst to spark up some convection.

Most of the MDR is dry air, do you think this wave's moisture envelope is big enough to overcome the dry air?

MDR?

[Blown Away]

This wave will need to be watched for development down the road (maybe end of this week). The moisture envelope is large and there is a very distinct spin present on visible and water vapor loops. SAL doesn't look to be a big issue and the upper-level winds appear that they are going to cooperate for development as it heads West through the MDR. In fact the shear is quite low all the way through the MDR at this point. It just needs a catalyst to spark up some convection.

Most of the MDR is dry air, do you think this wave's moisture envelope is big enough to overcome the dry air?

MDR?

Main Development Region "MDR" defined as the tropical North Atlantic south of 21°N and the Caribbean Sea.

[ROCK]

Dry air and SAL sinking in front of this wave....will be a fews days before it does anything...

[SouthFloridawx]

Dry air and SAL sinking in front of this wave....will be a fews days before it does anything...

Doesn't look too bad ahead of this wave, kind of sporadic and light... There is some to the north, but I think we're just waiting for it to pop. Maybe upper level condition aren't favorable...






Yep looks like some shear may be the culprit...

[somethingfunny]

I don't know about this wave's chances....it's awfully large which usually means it will have a tough time developing. Plus none of the models are really doing anything with it yet, so I don't think we'll be getting our first CV storm out of this one.

As far as clearing out the SAL goes, we'll have to see if the dry air manages to fill back in behind it. If not, watch out for the next wave!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

edited for disclaimer

[Sanibel]

Could reconvect. Is dry-ly hanging together in bad conditions.

[Ivanhater]

Canadian again develops this wave around the Islands



Long range puts it in the Gulf


Same system the Euro has at the same time