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cycloneye
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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#161 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 28, 2010 9:47 pm

Development chances are increasing in the MDR area.

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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#162 Postby StormTracker » Wed Jul 28, 2010 9:59 pm

And suddenly, the lid fell off!!! :uarrow:
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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#163 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Jul 28, 2010 10:16 pm

The only reason why developmental chances are increasing is because the ITCZ is finally starting to get more active. The more convection there is, the more likely something could spin up. There's still nothing really organized right now and it's going to be a slow process toward favorable conditions and a named storm.
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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#164 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 28, 2010 10:27 pm

No new waves introduced at the 00z surface analysis made by TAFB.

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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#165 Postby Riptide » Wed Jul 28, 2010 10:29 pm

The ITCZ is going ape****.

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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#166 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed Jul 28, 2010 11:37 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:I wasn't going to say anything but....every NOGAPS image that Ivan posts, it's never there! IMAGE


I been noticing that, too.
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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#167 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Jul 28, 2010 11:42 pm

00Z GFS seems to be back on board, although Surface reflection is not in sync in full with the 850 mb vort. May be an issue with the problems with the parameters mentioned before.

Very similar to last night's Euro run...
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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#168 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 28, 2010 11:50 pm

:uarrow: At that same timframe (168 hours) it does not have even an L.

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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#169 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Jul 28, 2010 11:53 pm

Luis, as mentioned above, that 850 vort is very well defined and the surface reflection should show the same. t may be attributed to the problems in the parameters mentioned before. Regardless that is a very well defined and strong 850 vort and is very similar to last night's Euro...
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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#170 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 28, 2010 11:55 pm

it sees the wave just not closed off...guess we will see how it comes out in tomorrows runs...
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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#171 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 28, 2010 11:56 pm

Ok you convinced me. :) But anyway,that have to do something to fix that.
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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#172 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 29, 2010 12:00 am

00Z NOGAPS is loving this, out to 120 hours so far. Although to be honest, I don't know if this is the "blob" area or this one. Getting confusing, but the models are still on board

BTW, if you are using IE, click the bar at the top and hit allow if you want to see the image...

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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#173 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Jul 29, 2010 12:03 am

I use firefox...still IMAGE
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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#174 Postby ROCK » Thu Jul 29, 2010 12:04 am

Ivan where are you getting the NOGAPS run as it comes in? Allan site?
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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#175 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 29, 2010 12:05 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:I use firefox...still IMAGE


I'm not sure what it is in that case. Nothing wrong with the image, it's an internal browser security issue.
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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#176 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 29, 2010 12:07 am

ROCK wrote:Ivan where are you getting the NOGAPS run as it comes in? Allan site?


Directly off the Navy site. Click "Global and Regional Weather Prediction Charts"

WXwarrior, click this site and see if that fixes the issue..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/public/
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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#177 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Jul 29, 2010 12:10 am

Thanks Iv...security issuse is now solved.
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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#178 Postby ROCK » Thu Jul 29, 2010 12:11 am

Thanks...Ivan...its makes sense that the Navy would have it out first....too many shiners tonight... :D
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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#179 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 29, 2010 12:12 am

NP Warrior.

Some reason the Canadian is not updating, full run on the FSU site should be available shortly...
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Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#180 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 29, 2010 12:18 am

Lol Rock, somehow even after Tequila I feel the need to check the models :lol:

00z Nogaps strongest run yet...in line with the GFS run and Euro run last night. Same time frame and area :slime:

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