Wave WSW of CV Islands

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145285
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#161 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 28, 2010 9:47 pm

Development chances are increasing in the MDR area.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
StormTracker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2903
Age: 59
Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:06 am
Location: Quail Heights(Redlands), FL.

Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#162 Postby StormTracker » Wed Jul 28, 2010 9:59 pm

And suddenly, the lid fell off!!! :uarrow:
0 likes   
Something's wrong when you regret, things that haven't happened yet!
Top
hurricaneCW
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:20 am
Location: Toms River, NJ

Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#163 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Jul 28, 2010 10:16 pm

The only reason why developmental chances are increasing is because the ITCZ is finally starting to get more active. The more convection there is, the more likely something could spin up. There's still nothing really organized right now and it's going to be a slow process toward favorable conditions and a named storm.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145285
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#164 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 28, 2010 10:27 pm

No new waves introduced at the 00z surface analysis made by TAFB.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Riptide
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 753
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Cape May, New Jersey
Contact:
Contact Riptide

Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#165 Postby Riptide » Wed Jul 28, 2010 10:29 pm

The ITCZ is going ape****.

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dixiebreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5140
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
Location: crystal river, fla.

Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#166 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed Jul 28, 2010 11:37 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:I wasn't going to say anything but....every NOGAPS image that Ivan posts, it's never there! IMAGE


I been noticing that, too.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11160
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#167 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Jul 28, 2010 11:42 pm

00Z GFS seems to be back on board, although Surface reflection is not in sync in full with the 850 mb vort. May be an issue with the problems with the parameters mentioned before.

Very similar to last night's Euro run...
Image
0 likes   
Michael
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145285
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#168 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 28, 2010 11:50 pm

:uarrow: At that same timframe (168 hours) it does not have even an L.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11160
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#169 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Jul 28, 2010 11:53 pm

Luis, as mentioned above, that 850 vort is very well defined and the surface reflection should show the same. t may be attributed to the problems in the parameters mentioned before. Regardless that is a very well defined and strong 850 vort and is very similar to last night's Euro...
0 likes   
Michael
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#170 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 28, 2010 11:55 pm

it sees the wave just not closed off...guess we will see how it comes out in tomorrows runs...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145285
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#171 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 28, 2010 11:56 pm

Ok you convinced me. :) But anyway,that have to do something to fix that.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11160
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#172 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 29, 2010 12:00 am

00Z NOGAPS is loving this, out to 120 hours so far. Although to be honest, I don't know if this is the "blob" area or this one. Getting confusing, but the models are still on board

BTW, if you are using IE, click the bar at the top and hit allow if you want to see the image...

Image
0 likes   
Michael
Top
Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#173 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Jul 29, 2010 12:03 am

I use firefox...still IMAGE
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#174 Postby ROCK » Thu Jul 29, 2010 12:04 am

Ivan where are you getting the NOGAPS run as it comes in? Allan site?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11160
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#175 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 29, 2010 12:05 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:I use firefox...still IMAGE


I'm not sure what it is in that case. Nothing wrong with the image, it's an internal browser security issue.
0 likes   
Michael
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11160
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#176 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 29, 2010 12:07 am

ROCK wrote:Ivan where are you getting the NOGAPS run as it comes in? Allan site?


Directly off the Navy site. Click "Global and Regional Weather Prediction Charts"

WXwarrior, click this site and see if that fixes the issue..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/public/
0 likes   
Michael
Top
Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#177 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Jul 29, 2010 12:10 am

Thanks Iv...security issuse is now solved.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#178 Postby ROCK » Thu Jul 29, 2010 12:11 am

Thanks...Ivan...its makes sense that the Navy would have it out first....too many shiners tonight... :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11160
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#179 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 29, 2010 12:12 am

NP Warrior.

Some reason the Canadian is not updating, full run on the FSU site should be available shortly...
0 likes   
Michael
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11160
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: Wave emerging Africa=Models hint at development

#180 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 29, 2010 12:18 am

Lol Rock, somehow even after Tequila I feel the need to check the models :lol:

00z Nogaps strongest run yet...in line with the GFS run and Euro run last night. Same time frame and area :slime:

Image
0 likes   
Michael
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Kennethb, scotto and 41 guests