ATL: INVEST 90L - MODELS
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brunota2003
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Ivanhater
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Re:
brunota2003 wrote:That one I can see! What is the SHF5? Is the only model that doesn't make it to hurricane status in 120 hours or less...and perhaps a bit more realistic as far as strengthening goes.
Looks like it is based off climo and persistence
SHF5 - SHIFOR intensity model 5-day (climatology and persistence) (ATL and E PAC!)
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Michael
The SHF5 is indeed probably more realistic, so it looks like its the ultimate fusion of statistical models from the sounds of things!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Aric Dunn
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Euro...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html
clearly hold out till the two things merge..
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html
clearly hold out till the two things merge..
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - MODELS
It will be very interesting to see what the first runs by GFDL and HWRF will show (Around 7:30 PM EDT)
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Wx_Warrior
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - MODELS
I just looked on the 12z EURO high res on the 850 vort. It does have it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - MODELS
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
its going west for now......longer it takes the more west and the more the states come into play. First up though is the northern islands and that is concerning if I lived on one....
its going west for now......longer it takes the more west and the more the states come into play. First up though is the northern islands and that is concerning if I lived on one....
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The 12z ECM is certainly complicated Aric, I think cases can be made for both ideas, this region seems to carry on slowly moving west looking at the ECM, and the wave then develops behind it, whether or not this region dies or becomes absorbed by the wave is a tough call...
The 12z also shows the shear zone quite nicely, note the ULL that is dropping into the Atlantic on this run, probably why the ECM doesn't really take it much beyond a weak system.
The 12z also shows the shear zone quite nicely, note the ULL that is dropping into the Atlantic on this run, probably why the ECM doesn't really take it much beyond a weak system.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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wxman57
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Re: Re:
Ivanhater wrote:brunota2003 wrote:I like seeing images, not the word "image"...lmao! Looking at the quote, there is no .jpg or .gif
It is showing up on my end. Anyone else having a problem?
I just see the word "image" on some of your posts, like the one in question.
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Ivanhater
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Re: Re:
wxman57 wrote:Ivanhater wrote:brunota2003 wrote:I like seeing images, not the word "image"...lmao! Looking at the quote, there is no .jpg or .gif
It is showing up on my end. Anyone else having a problem?
I just see the word "image" on some of your posts, like the one in question.
Yeah, I had to upload the image to a server then post it. However, some people were having a problem with the NOGAPS earlier. In that case you have to allow your browser to access the site.
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Michael
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - MODELS
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Jul 29, 2010 5:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
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If there is nothing before... then just ask
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I believe the sky is falling...
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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - MODELS
18z GFS 48 hours...a large low pressure area. 90L does not move much in two days...
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Michael
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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - MODELS
Looks to really start consolidating in 4 days around 37W...850 vort confirms
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Michael
The broad low doesn't even really get moving at 60hrs, the CMC also agrees with that idea as well...
The 18z GFS is doing some very odd things thats for sure...but as others have said it looks like the convection just waits for the wave to clear through and the ITCZ convection finally lifts out.
The 18z GFS is doing some very odd things thats for sure...but as others have said it looks like the convection just waits for the wave to clear through and the ITCZ convection finally lifts out.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Dean4Storms
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lonelymike
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - MODELS
Ivan,
Can u tell the strength of the low on the GFS run?
Can u tell the strength of the low on the GFS run?
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