WPAC; INVEST 93W - DISCUSSION

[Typhoon10]

[Hurricane Andrew]

It has an eye!

[Chacor]

It has an eye!

... Are you kidding me?

[doraboy]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

93W - My personal forecast #1

Initial time: 2010/7/30 00 UTC

Now: 11.4N 148.1E Intensity: 15 KTS
+24 hours: 12.4N 145.4E Intensity: 15 KTS
+48 hours: 14.1N 142.2E Intensity: 20 KTS
+72 hours: 15.8N 138.8E Intensity: 30 KTS
+96 hours: 17.5N 135.4E Intensity: 30 KTS
+120 hours: 19.7N 132.0E Intensity: 30 KTS
+144 hours: 22.4N 128.7E Intensity: 40 KTS
+168 hours: 25.6N 125.7E Intensity: 50 KTS
+192 hours: 29.1N 123.9E Intensity: 40 KTS
+216 hours: 32.8N 125.1E Intensity: 30 KTS
+240 hours: 36.4N 129.4E Intensity: 15 KTS

[StormingB81]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

93W - My personal forecast #1

Initial time: 2010/7/30 00 UTC

Now: 11.4N 148.1E Intensity: 15 KTS
+24 hours: 12.4N 145.4E Intensity: 15 KTS
+48 hours: 14.1N 142.2E Intensity: 20 KTS
+72 hours: 15.8N 138.8E Intensity: 30 KTS
+96 hours: 17.5N 135.4E Intensity: 30 KTS
+120 hours: 19.7N 132.0E Intensity: 30 KTS
+144 hours: 22.4N 128.7E Intensity: 40 KTS
+168 hours: 25.6N 125.7E Intensity: 50 KTS
+192 hours: 29.1N 123.9E Intensity: 40 KTS
+216 hours: 32.8N 125.1E Intensity: 30 KTS
+240 hours: 36.4N 129.4E Intensity: 15 KTS

so you think this storm will be next to nothing..wonder where it may go..where is it now east of PI? I cant see any of the photos..

[Chacor]

What's your reasoning for that forecast, or did you just pull it out from thin air?

[doraboy]

My forecast is based on my own "model" (a small C++ program I wrote)

The detail result is like this:

But my forecast may be slightly different from the result of my model

[Chacor]

Did you take into account all the current environmental conditions?

[doraboy]

Did you take into account all the current environmental conditions?

The inputs of the model are:

1.Shear Tendency pictures
2.Upper Level Divergence pictures
3.Lower Level Convergence pictures
4.Sea Surface Temperature pictures
5.The conditions and positions of High atmospheric pressure
6.Topographies

According to my statistics , the average +24 hour position error of my model is 196 KM

And the +24 hour intensity error of my model is 9.9 KTS

PS: the +24 hour intensity error of JTWC is 8.93 KTS (For 01W~04W in 2010)

[phwxenthusiast]

According to my statistics , the average +24 hour position error of my model is 196 KM

and the +24 hour intensity error of my model is 9.9 KT (JTWC is 8.93 KT)

C++, cool.. we'll see, though i do think it'll move more towards the west...

[Chacor]

Very interesting, Doraboy. Will be interested to see how your forecasts develop.

[KWT]

Thats very interesting Doraby, will be interesting to see how it all comes off...

[Typhoon10]

Gone already! That was short one!