WPAC; INVEST 93W - DISCUSSION
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WPAC; INVEST 93W - DISCUSSION
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- Hurricane Andrew
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
93W - My personal forecast #1
Initial time: 2010/7/30 00 UTC
Now: 11.4N 148.1E Intensity: 15 KTS
+24 hours: 12.4N 145.4E Intensity: 15 KTS
+48 hours: 14.1N 142.2E Intensity: 20 KTS
+72 hours: 15.8N 138.8E Intensity: 30 KTS
+96 hours: 17.5N 135.4E Intensity: 30 KTS
+120 hours: 19.7N 132.0E Intensity: 30 KTS
+144 hours: 22.4N 128.7E Intensity: 40 KTS
+168 hours: 25.6N 125.7E Intensity: 50 KTS
+192 hours: 29.1N 123.9E Intensity: 40 KTS
+216 hours: 32.8N 125.1E Intensity: 30 KTS
+240 hours: 36.4N 129.4E Intensity: 15 KTS
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- StormingB81
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Re:
doraboy wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
93W - My personal forecast #1
Initial time: 2010/7/30 00 UTC
Now: 11.4N 148.1E Intensity: 15 KTS
+24 hours: 12.4N 145.4E Intensity: 15 KTS
+48 hours: 14.1N 142.2E Intensity: 20 KTS
+72 hours: 15.8N 138.8E Intensity: 30 KTS
+96 hours: 17.5N 135.4E Intensity: 30 KTS
+120 hours: 19.7N 132.0E Intensity: 30 KTS
+144 hours: 22.4N 128.7E Intensity: 40 KTS
+168 hours: 25.6N 125.7E Intensity: 50 KTS
+192 hours: 29.1N 123.9E Intensity: 40 KTS
+216 hours: 32.8N 125.1E Intensity: 30 KTS
+240 hours: 36.4N 129.4E Intensity: 15 KTS
so you think this storm will be next to nothing..wonder where it may go..where is it now east of PI? I cant see any of the photos..
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Re: WPAC; INVEST 93W - DISCUSSION
My forecast is based on my own "model" (a small C++ program I wrote)
The detail result is like this:
But my forecast may be slightly different from the result of my model
The detail result is like this:
But my forecast may be slightly different from the result of my model
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Re:
Chacor wrote:Did you take into account all the current environmental conditions?
The inputs of the model are:
1.Shear Tendency pictures
2.Upper Level Divergence pictures
3.Lower Level Convergence pictures
4.Sea Surface Temperature pictures
5.The conditions and positions of High atmospheric pressure
6.Topographies
According to my statistics , the average +24 hour position error of my model is 196 KM
And the +24 hour intensity error of my model is 9.9 KTS
PS: the +24 hour intensity error of JTWC is 8.93 KTS (For 01W~04W in 2010)
Last edited by doraboy on Fri Jul 30, 2010 12:26 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Re:
doraboy wrote:According to my statistics , the average +24 hour position error of my model is 196 KM
and the +24 hour intensity error of my model is 9.9 KT (JTWC is 8.93 KT)
C++, cool.. we'll see, though i do think it'll move more towards the west...
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Thats very interesting Doraby, will be interesting to see how it all comes off...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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