ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#181 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 1:28 pm

132 HOURS. Weakens to an open wave North if Hispaniola

What is it with the 00Z and 12z flip flop on intensity with the Euro!
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#182 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 01, 2010 1:29 pm

Another different run from the ECM, looks like its got some sort of split personality!

The track remains broadly the same, but I have few doubts a stronger system would probably end up further north...waiting to see the actual synoptics aloft.
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#183 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Aug 01, 2010 1:30 pm

150 hrs in the Bahamas
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#184 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Aug 01, 2010 1:34 pm

168 Hrs. SE of Miami, seems stronger on that hour.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#185 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 1:34 pm

144 hours...

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#186 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 01, 2010 1:35 pm

UKMO tracks this at:

30mph between 24-48hrs...thats way too fast I suspect even if it does speed up...

I think thats why its east of the global models, the GFDL isn't much slower. In a set-up with a trough in the NW Atlantic a slightly slower motion then what the model is showing could make a world of difference.
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#187 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Aug 01, 2010 1:36 pm

KWT wrote:SFLcane, remember quite a few of the models had Alex hitting LA...indeed some even went for Florida!

CZ...yeah sometimes that happens BUT this here is a little bit of reasearch I've been doing, 70% of this storms globally have gone west of thier forecasted track...

As for the GFDL...the GFDL has this moving at 22kts at one point!
Ask yourself whether thats actually all that likely...


exactly, its run off that crappy gfs, anything beyond about 84h is fantasy land, euro until further notice
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#188 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 1:39 pm

144 hours

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#189 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Aug 01, 2010 1:39 pm

EURO Intensity is looking good to me here. Shear will probably be on the rise as well as dry air from the islands in the 72 hour time frame. I work on the premise that shear does what it wants in that region of the Atlantic Ocean above and below the islands, with the exception of PR.


The refiring it shows near the Bahamas looks good to me too. That's about as far as you can possibly look into it, but intensity wise the track makes sense.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#190 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 1:40 pm

Day 7

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#191 Postby Aquawind » Sun Aug 01, 2010 1:40 pm

No doubt some serious speed issues on that run..NEXT!
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#192 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Aug 01, 2010 1:40 pm

186 Hrs SE Gulf
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Re:

#193 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 1:42 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:186 Hrs SE Gulf


After hitting Extreme South Florida at 1010 mb...moving slowly Wnw
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#194 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Aug 01, 2010 1:43 pm

HPC:


THE MODELS DEVELOP A LOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH TODAY IS
STARTING NEAR 9N 35W...WITH A SPREAD IN FORECAST POSITIONS AMONG
THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GROWING WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDERNEATH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE. THE FORECAST WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC 850-500 MB RIDGE DAYS 6-7 SHOULD LEAD TO SLOWER FORWARD
MOTION. SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS
FOR DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL.
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#195 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 01, 2010 1:43 pm

I think the possible solutions is now looking increasingly obvious, if this one races quickly enough to the west and gets strong, it almost certainly recurve (like the GFDL/UKMO...but if it holds back somewhat like the GFS/ECM then the more westerly option is certainly more likely.
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#196 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Aug 01, 2010 1:44 pm

198 stronger moving WNW
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Re: Re:

#197 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Aug 01, 2010 1:45 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:186 Hrs SE Gulf


After hitting Extreme South Florida at 1010 mb...moving slowly Wnw


a 1010 low ought scare the living daylights out of people
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#198 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Aug 01, 2010 1:47 pm

210 Hrs SE of New Orleans.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#199 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Aug 01, 2010 1:48 pm

So are none of the models bombing this as a strong hurricane like they were late last night?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#200 Postby Canelaw99 » Sun Aug 01, 2010 1:49 pm

Nothing like a storm model run through FL headed for NO to get the board jumping this week....
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