132 HOURS. Weakens to an open wave North if Hispaniola
What is it with the 00Z and 12z flip flop on intensity with the Euro!
ATL: Ex COLIN - Models
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Another different run from the ECM, looks like its got some sort of split personality!
The track remains broadly the same, but I have few doubts a stronger system would probably end up further north...waiting to see the actual synoptics aloft.
The track remains broadly the same, but I have few doubts a stronger system would probably end up further north...waiting to see the actual synoptics aloft.
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KFDM Meteorologist
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KFDM Meteorologist
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UKMO tracks this at:
30mph between 24-48hrs...thats way too fast I suspect even if it does speed up...
I think thats why its east of the global models, the GFDL isn't much slower. In a set-up with a trough in the NW Atlantic a slightly slower motion then what the model is showing could make a world of difference.
30mph between 24-48hrs...thats way too fast I suspect even if it does speed up...
I think thats why its east of the global models, the GFDL isn't much slower. In a set-up with a trough in the NW Atlantic a slightly slower motion then what the model is showing could make a world of difference.
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jlauderdal
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Re:
KWT wrote:SFLcane, remember quite a few of the models had Alex hitting LA...indeed some even went for Florida!
CZ...yeah sometimes that happens BUT this here is a little bit of reasearch I've been doing, 70% of this storms globally have gone west of thier forecasted track...
As for the GFDL...the GFDL has this moving at 22kts at one point!
Ask yourself whether thats actually all that likely...
exactly, its run off that crappy gfs, anything beyond about 84h is fantasy land, euro until further notice
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Weatherfreak000
EURO Intensity is looking good to me here. Shear will probably be on the rise as well as dry air from the islands in the 72 hour time frame. I work on the premise that shear does what it wants in that region of the Atlantic Ocean above and below the islands, with the exception of PR.
The refiring it shows near the Bahamas looks good to me too. That's about as far as you can possibly look into it, but intensity wise the track makes sense.
The refiring it shows near the Bahamas looks good to me too. That's about as far as you can possibly look into it, but intensity wise the track makes sense.
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KFDM Meteorologist
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS
HPC:
THE MODELS DEVELOP A LOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH TODAY IS
STARTING NEAR 9N 35W...WITH A SPREAD IN FORECAST POSITIONS AMONG
THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GROWING WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDERNEATH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE. THE FORECAST WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC 850-500 MB RIDGE DAYS 6-7 SHOULD LEAD TO SLOWER FORWARD
MOTION. SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS
FOR DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL.
THE MODELS DEVELOP A LOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH TODAY IS
STARTING NEAR 9N 35W...WITH A SPREAD IN FORECAST POSITIONS AMONG
THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GROWING WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDERNEATH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE. THE FORECAST WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC 850-500 MB RIDGE DAYS 6-7 SHOULD LEAD TO SLOWER FORWARD
MOTION. SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS
FOR DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL.
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I think the possible solutions is now looking increasingly obvious, if this one races quickly enough to the west and gets strong, it almost certainly recurve (like the GFDL/UKMO...but if it holds back somewhat like the GFS/ECM then the more westerly option is certainly more likely.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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KFDM Meteorologist
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Re: Re:
Ivanhater wrote:KFDM Meteorologist wrote:186 Hrs SE Gulf
After hitting Extreme South Florida at 1010 mb...moving slowly Wnw
a 1010 low ought scare the living daylights out of people
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KFDM Meteorologist
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS
So are none of the models bombing this as a strong hurricane like they were late last night?
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Canelaw99
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS
Nothing like a storm model run through FL headed for NO to get the board jumping this week....
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