#5 Postby Frank2 » Mon Aug 09, 2010 8:37 am
Interesting, though of course he'd have a hard time convincing anyone that 2004 or 2005 were anything but slow, though it's true that this year so far there have been a lower than usual number of tropical cyclones worldwide...
And, it does seem that definitely something is "missing" in a sense - must be that giant European magnet (not the Euro - lol)...
August is speeding along, and hard to believe that we are fast approaching the half-way point in the month, so per the statistic that many Atlantic hurricane seasons have ended during September, it's going to be interesting to see whether the annual forecasts were correct or very wrong...
Not being critical here, but if the forecasts are really off (versus just a minor error), then my guess is that some might step back from making these forecasts at all (2006 being the recent year with a very wrong annual forecast), since significant errors can be very costly to the many who have come to make decisions based on them (for example the wrong '06 forecast was very costly to the South Florida Water Management District and the Army Corp of Engineers, since both spent a great deal of time preparing for a busy season that thankfully did not happen)...
I know many cite October as an active month, but in reality October usually is the end of the season, so anything that does form from early or mid October onward (and is a threat to land) is the exception...
In fact, last week TWC (Dr. Knabb) mentioned that the Tropical Atlantic is unlike other areas of the world that see tropical cyclone development, because it is the only area that has a relatively brief active window for the actual development of tropical waves (August-September)...
Frank
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